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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#131

Post by ashtonkem »

usaar333 wrote: post #114
ashtonkem wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because you don’t know what the infection rate is by each demographic. You have to compare just the case fatality rate. Comparing fatality ratios alone is too likely to measure unrelated factors.

Fair enough, but would there be a reason it would be different? And even if it were, is that actually relevant? Anyway, here's some IFR estimations for covid by Imperial college: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... You see significantly higher multipliers by age group than for flu. As one example, they are guessing teenagers have 1/17th the mortality rate of say a 40 year old. For flu (goi…

There is absolutely plenty of reason for the infection rate to be different by demographic: we closed schools down. We don’t do that for the flu.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#132

Post by Mikeb85 »

wbronitsky wrote: post #120
Mikeb85 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout…

I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, whic…

If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life.

If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun...

Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#133

Post by ashtonkem »

gpm wrote: post #108
ashtonkem wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because you don’t know what the infection rate is by each demographic. You have to compare just the case fatality rate. Comparing fatality ratios alone is too likely to measure unrelated factors.

It's more likely that cases/infections is skewed by age, because we test severe cases more than mild cases, than infections as a whole is skewed by age. Assuming infections are uniformly distributed, or rather have a similar distribution to the flu, seems entirely reasonable until we have good data suggesting otherwise.

There is no reason to believe that infections aren’t skewed by age. We took a wide range of preventative measures that are completely unique within living memory, such as closing down most schools and colleges. Until we’ve actually done statistical analysis on who got sick, any predictions based on historical trends are largely invalid.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#134

Post by elihu »

Leary wrote: post #7

Sailors are very young. You can't assume that the proportion of people who are asymptomatic to be the same for every age group. The 60% asymptomatic percentage is also a lot lower than some of the assumptions flowing around the internet (~90%).

Yep. From the article:

> Still, the case of the Theodore Roosevelt offers a case study for researchers about how the virus spreads asymptomatically in a confined environment among mostly younger adults.

...but they don't mention what the average age is. Presumably someone has the data to produce an interesting scatterplot of age versus symptom severity.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#135

Post by Mikeb85 »

wbronitsky wrote: post #125
Mikeb85 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally every health authority including the WHO is assuming immunity will be a thing...

Please show me the data you have so we can have a shared understanding of the facts. Until then, there is no reason to continue this discussion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun...

And what are you adding to HN? You're the person on Reddit that spams "Source?" in every discussion. Maybe read up on the topic...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#136

Post by vardump »

mrfusion wrote: post #78

Could past infections from other corona viruses be Protecting people? I’d like to see research on that.

Like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_NL63.

"Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is a species of coronavirus that was identified in late 2004 in a seven-month-old child with bronchiolitis in the Netherlands.[1] The virus is an enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA virus which enters its host cell by the ACE2 receptor."

To add, I also wonder whether those with contacts to disease super spreaders (aka toddlers in kindergarten) have better immunity against covid-19, just by being previously infected by other coronaviruses. Possibly some currently unknown ones as well.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#137

Post by [deleted] »

empath75 wrote: post #127
Mikeb85 wrote: post #35

All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…

Explain the bodies piled up on hospital hallways.

[deleted]

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#138

Post by Lewton »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #132
wbronitsky wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, whic…

If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life. If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun... Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in…

> Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.

What would you expect this to look like without a lockdown

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#139

Post by dboreham »

TylerE wrote: post #130
ImaCake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

By lack of a pile of bodies.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#140

Post by scott_s »

TylerE wrote: post #130
ImaCake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

Because their hospitals are not overwhelmed beyond capacity despite having positive cases just as long as other places.
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