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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#71

Post by perl4ever »

Barrin92 wrote: post #39
endymi0n wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note though that the study, its methods and especially its politically charged presentation by repeat social media offenders are still disputed [1] [1] https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/offene-fragen-heinsberg-stud...

Today there's been a new result from antibody tests in the netherlands done on blood dononrs which showed about 3% infection rate. Extrapolated to the population that would imply 500k infections, 20x higher than the official stats. The Heinsberg study isn't the only source pointing to this. Almost a month ago the NYT also ran a story on randomly tested Iranian airplane passengers which suggested that as of that time…

Possibly dumb question, how do we know someone with antibodies was exposed? The whole idea of vaccination is based on multiple things producing the same antibodies, so isn't it plausible there could be related viruses or genetic factors or something that would lead to antibodies for some people that hadn't been exposed?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#72

Post by TheCoelacanth »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #65
cryoshon wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a really good point. AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military. this cohort will give us a much better picture of how the virus impacts a totally healthy and young population. as with countless other pieces of evidence, it should also help to put the "it's just a flu bro" falsehood to bed.

Does the mortality rate across entire population (not particular subpopulations) exceed that of the flu?

Almost certainly. The US had 27k deaths in the past two weeks. That's more than some entire years of flu related deaths. Give it another few weeks and it will be more than any recent year.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#73

Post by kian »

falcor84 wrote: post #57
kian wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if they form antibodies. Studies have been suggesting that people who get it in asymptomatic form are not all forming antibodies - leaving them wide open to be future communicators of the disease.

That sounds really interesting, could you please link to more info about this?

I'll check back in here later with links - didn't save it at the time I was reading through.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#74

Post by glofish »

pesfandiar wrote: post #33
glofish wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if the US has 33K deaths and the death rate is 0.6% then the US must have at least 5 million cases. If the death rate is lower (most likely around 0.3%) then it means 10 million infections. Also a good news actually.

Those death rates in US are optimistic in my opinion. What if the actual rate is higher because of worse health in impoverished demographics, or the simple fact people might avoid healthcare because of its prohibitive costs?

these death rates come from published research if anything the death rates over across all age groups are even lower - this is a very common observation as initially most non-symptomatic are missed.

there is a very strong age dependence with this disease, and probably many other risk factors - predisposition to pneumonia etc.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#76

Post by glofish »

pvaldes wrote: post #56
glofish wrote: post #4

I find this to be good even excellent news. It is quite possible the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear. If the young have nothing to worry about the prospects are pretty good. The best way to reach herd immunity is to have lots of immune people around you.

> the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear Whereas being still deadlier than the combination of all wolves, dogs, crocodiles, hippos, lions, tigers, elephants, sharks, spiders and all known venomous snakes in the planet... Any serial killer wannabee would kill for having the same results in just three months

it is not such a great analogy though,

considering that we have killed and exterminated most of the wolves, crocs, lions, hippos etc

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#77

Post by glofish »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #44
claytongulick wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you include 3,700 non-positive deaths in your total death count, yeah - the numbers look scary. The reporting we're seeing is CFR, not mortality rate. They are very different things. Mortality rate is the number of deaths caused by a disease. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is the total number of deaths by those diagnosed with a disease. They are very different numbers, and have very different meaning for different ana…

Even w/o those non-positives, the death count for NYC is in the neighborhood of 8,000[0] (and still rising at a decent clip) for a population of 8 million. That's 0.1%. You can also look at individual counties[1] and you get some variation but the same picture. Ex. 2.7k deaths in Queens for a population of 2.3mil, 0.4k deaths in Richmond for a population of 0.4mil (That's 0.1% for the entire population and not even n…

also while this may sound insensitive 0.1% of the population is not the same as X percent of old and sick people

it is not like the virus takes down everyone equally. The overwhelming majority of those affected are both old and fairly sick already.

Again I am not implying anything other than there is clear skew and the measures should target those that are at risk. It makes no sense to create generic, unworkable rules where we lock up all 20 year olds that have no risk whatsoever. It is not realistic.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#79

Post by ashtonkem »

eximius wrote: post #10

This is mixed news. While this indicates the death rate may be lower and the infection rate higher among the general population, the demographic of individuals in the US military are going to be of significantly higher health than the general population. So, it doesn't necessarily ease the risk for demographics already identified as 'at-risk'. If anything, their risk might be understated given the higher infection ra…

The former only holds if you assume that a large majority of asymptomatic carriers never develop symptoms. It’s entirely likely that an asymptomatic positive test is a precursor to developing symptoms.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#80

Post by ashtonkem »

mc32 wrote: post #43
scarface74 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially once you consider all of the pre-existing conditions that make you ineligible to be in the military.

I think we should also consider that some members of the military depending on their duties get exposed to chemicals that the civilian pop don’t get exposed to at the same levels.

Or at all. Most of us will never come within contact with TNT during our life, while most military members will be exposed to its residue constantly.
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