Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 544 posts

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#51

Post by joshuahedlund »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #47
coherentpony wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're th…

> Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a…

With the orders of magnitudes involved here, it's possible for

1) many times more people infected than confirmed cases

2) many times more dangerous than the flu

to both be true.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#52

Post by DanBC »

eximius wrote: post #10

This is mixed news. While this indicates the death rate may be lower and the infection rate higher among the general population, the demographic of individuals in the US military are going to be of significantly higher health than the general population. So, it doesn't necessarily ease the risk for demographics already identified as 'at-risk'. If anything, their risk might be understated given the higher infection ra…

I don't quite understand why "more infectious but less lethal" is better than "less infectious but more lethal" -- both mean that lots of people are going to die.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#53

Post by MikeAmelung »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #19
jbotz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since about a week ago data has been coming in from antibody testing in Europe... and the results are that IFR (infection fatality rate) is clearly less than 0.5% (0.37% in one city in germany[1]) and the number of actually infected people at least 15 times to 30 times higher than the confirmed number of cases. [1] https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coro...

I'm not so sure that's clear yet. Just going on blunt metrics, the virus has already killed 0.1% of NYC's entire population, probably on pace to hit 0.2% if the down-curve even only roughly matches the up-curve. So it would have had to have spread to 50% of the population for the fatality rate there to be only 0.4%, which seems unlikely (there's only a smattering of antibody data around the world so far but nothing h…

So with a 1% IFR, that would mean 20% infected. Would you agree with that number? Has anywhere else found 20% infected at the level of a metropolis?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#54

Post by joshuahedlund »

MikeAmelung wrote: post #53
joshuahedlund wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so sure that's clear yet. Just going on blunt metrics, the virus has already killed 0.1% of NYC's entire population, probably on pace to hit 0.2% if the down-curve even only roughly matches the up-curve. So it would have had to have spread to 50% of the population for the fatality rate there to be only 0.4%, which seems unlikely (there's only a smattering of antibody data around the world so far but nothing h…

So with a 1% IFR, that would mean 20% infected. Would you agree with that number? Has anywhere else found 20% infected at the level of a metropolis?

I think 20% is definitely in the range of plausibility. See 15% infection rate in a set of tested pregnant women in NYC[1]

I think the preponderance of evidence currently points to an IFR of 1% or maybe a bit lower.

[1]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#55

Post by kian »

falcor84 wrote: post #32
estebank wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being asymptomatic is not the same as being immune. It means that more people will feel fine and spread the virus more because they don't know they have it.

Well, for what it's worth, if they get the virus while on a long tour of duty, by the time they get back they should be good to contribute to the herd immunity.

Only if they form antibodies. Studies have been suggesting that people who get it in asymptomatic form are not all forming antibodies - leaving them wide open to be future communicators of the disease.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#56

Post by pvaldes »

glofish wrote: post #4

I find this to be good even excellent news. It is quite possible the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear. If the young have nothing to worry about the prospects are pretty good. The best way to reach herd immunity is to have lots of immune people around you.

> the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear

Whereas being still deadlier than the combination of all wolves, dogs, crocodiles, hippos, lions, tigers, elephants, sharks, spiders and all known venomous snakes in the planet...

Any serial killer wannabee would kill for having the same results in just three months

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#57

Post by falcor84 »

kian wrote: post #55
falcor84 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, for what it's worth, if they get the virus while on a long tour of duty, by the time they get back they should be good to contribute to the herd immunity.

Only if they form antibodies. Studies have been suggesting that people who get it in asymptomatic form are not all forming antibodies - leaving them wide open to be future communicators of the disease.

That sounds really interesting, could you please link to more info about this?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#58

Post by MikeAmelung »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #54
MikeAmelung wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So with a 1% IFR, that would mean 20% infected. Would you agree with that number? Has anywhere else found 20% infected at the level of a metropolis?

I think 20% is definitely in the range of plausibility. See 15% infection rate in a set of tested pregnant women in NYC[1] I think the preponderance of evidence currently points to an IFR of 1% or maybe a bit lower. [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

Yes, very interesting, NYC will certainly be an important source of data for the foreseeable future.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#59

Post by mns »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #35

All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…

Sad to see that everything that tries to bring some positivity to this crisis or a different point of view gets downvoted into oblivion here, including studies and opinions on how we’re doing more harm with certain measures.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#60

Post by mns »

coherentpony wrote: post #41
Mikeb85 wrote: post #35

All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're th…

There are more hospitals and health workers doing nothing now globally (and no, I am not ignoring the outliers here, like Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York, I’m talking about the rest of the world), waiting for a wave that never came, even though everyone was 2 weeks behind Italy in the last 2 months. Cancer patients, people with other serious issues are being ignored now, if one of your parents had a condition that is not being treated any more, you might see things differently.
Post reply on HN