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So people who are fit enough to pass active duty basic training tend not to have symptoms. Solution: put everyone through basic training?
i'm afraid the fatality rate caused by basic training, i.e. elderly and severe diabetes/hypertension/etc., may happen to be pretty close to the covid.
Btw, i think the aircraft carrier commander is an outstanding and exceptional guy - he put the lives of his sailors above his career.
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It does, the more young healthy people are immune, the less likely the virus will make it to them.
Being asymptomatic is not the same as being immune. It means that more people will feel fine and spread the virus more because they don't know they have it.
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Yes. Many institutions test only if preparing to admit. Anybody else is told to go home and recover in isolation.
if the US has 33K deaths and the death rate is 0.6% then the US must have at least 5 million cases. If the death rate is lower (most likely around 0.3%) then it means 10 million infections. Also a good news actually.
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Since about a week ago data has been coming in from antibody testing in Europe... and the results are that IFR (infection fatality rate) is clearly less than 0.5% (0.37% in one city in germany[1]) and the number of actually infected people at least 15 times to 30 times higher than the confirmed number of cases. [1] https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coro...
I'm not so sure that's clear yet. Just going on blunt metrics, the virus has already killed 0.1% of NYC's entire population, probably on pace to hit 0.2% if the down-curve even only roughly matches the up-curve. So it would have had to have spread to 50% of the population for the fatality rate there to be only 0.4%, which seems unlikely (there's only a smattering of antibody data around the world so far but nothing h…
The reporting we're seeing is CFR, not mortality rate. They are very different things.
Mortality rate is the number of deaths caused by a disease.
CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is the total number of deaths by those diagnosed with a disease.
They are very different numbers, and have very different meaning for different analysis and methodologies.
Saying that that virus has killed .1% of NYC's population is inaccurate.
The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier.
Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing is way overblown and I fear we'll be living with the consequences for an entire generation.
I find this to be good even excellent news. It is quite possible the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear. If the young have nothing to worry about the prospects are pretty good. The best way to reach herd immunity is to have lots of immune people around you.
Since about a week ago data has been coming in from antibody testing in Europe... and the results are that IFR (infection fatality rate) is clearly less than 0.5% (0.37% in one city in germany[1]) and the number of actually infected people at least 15 times to 30 times higher than the confirmed number of cases. [1] https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coro...
Were they testing for the virus or for antibodies? If it was testing for the virus tests only show positive for a few days then testing everyone on board will miss those who already had it, correct?
According to the Captain's email, sailors were tested, and results known the next day. I don't know what equipment they had onboard the Roosevelt, but the quick turnaround might indicate the type of test. These tests were also performed around Mar29.
Regardless, it’s going to be extremely interesting now that countries start doing random serological tests.
I read today about a group of Swedish athletes who visited a competition in Wuhan in October and some developed severe respiratory issues afterwards that couldn’t be diagnosed.
Edit: 5 were tested and 1 was positive which was interpreted as being a later infection. So no October infection.
All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Since about a week ago data has been coming in from antibody testing in Europe... and the results are that IFR (infection fatality rate) is clearly less than 0.5% (0.37% in one city in germany[1]) and the number of actually infected people at least 15 times to 30 times higher than the confirmed number of cases. [1] https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coro...
Note though that the study, its methods and especially its politically charged presentation by repeat social media offenders are still disputed [1] [1] https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/offene-fragen-heinsberg-stud...
The Heinsberg study isn't the only source pointing to this. Almost a month ago the NYT also ran a story on randomly tested Iranian airplane passengers which suggested that as of that time there may already have been 500k-5mil infections in the country.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/dutch-study-sugges...
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/16/world/europe/16re...?