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Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

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Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#81

Some interesting data here. - Mean age of 79.5 sheds light on Italy’s extremely high fatality rates; in essence, it’s the (very) elderly that are dying due to complications from viral pneumonia. Which begs the next question... Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and not antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine? Sure, these are “experimental” therapies but decent data…

https://www.statista.com/statistics/433390/individuals-who-c...

24% smoke in Italy

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#82

Some excerpts (courtesy of Google translate): The mean age of deceased and positive COVID-19 patients is 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, RangeInterQuartile - IQR 74.3-85.9). There are 601 women (30.0%). The figure 1 shows that the median age of patients COVID-19 positive deaths is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 80.5 years - patients w…

huh, no one else has mentioned this, am I interpreting this wrong? If 30% of deceased positives are female, then 70% are male? That's quite a big difference!

Okay, Italy's numbers are not too far off from China's.

CCDC Data shows that out of 44,672 confirmed cases, 63.8% of deaths were Male, 36.2% female. [1]

1. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#83
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Italy's hospitals are overcrowded and very old patients are simply not treated at all. It's a vicious circle because they're thought being less likely to survive, are denied treatment, which makes them even less likely to survive.

Triage is unfortunately applied in some hospitals, especially around Bergamo. But you would need to provide some data to make the claim that the stats are skewed this much purely because all elderly are just cast away. Given the vast majority of hospital cases are actually the elderly. Finally, proper ethical triage never looks at how long a patient is expected to live after their recovery as a condition.

> Finally, proper ethical triage never looks at how long a patient is expected to live after their recovery as a condition.

But it does look at chances of survival, which for this particular disease looks very closely correlated with how long a patient is expected to live after their recovery.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#84
post #31

How many were so sick that they would have died anyway? I read that they were testing dead people and the theory was, their count was so high because they would add people to it that would have died anyway but just happen to be infected right before their death. Edit: I think this is an interesting question. Why do Italy, France and Spain have such high death ratios? Are they measuring more than needed or are the oth…

Right, but you need to establish the cause of death and it's kind of important. Like for example my father was fighting cancer for 8 years before he died, but when he passed away the hospital wrote that he died of "cardiac arrest", since his heart just couldn't go anymore. So in some statistic somewhere he will exist as a person who died of heart problems, not someone who died because of cancer. That's not right eith…

This is a problem with counting diabetes deaths as well. We have evidence to believe that people with diabetes are much more likely to get heart disease or cancer, which is what they usually die from. There's lots of debate on if mortality due to diabetes is underestimated for the same reasons.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#85
post #31

How many were so sick that they would have died anyway? I read that they were testing dead people and the theory was, their count was so high because they would add people to it that would have died anyway but just happen to be infected right before their death. Edit: I think this is an interesting question. Why do Italy, France and Spain have such high death ratios? Are they measuring more than needed or are the oth…

I can only speak for France, where I live, but the situation is possibly the same in Spain and Italy.

Over here they only test people who are "very sick", in other words people who need medical attention. They are not testing people with no or "mild" symptoms. Basically this means if you don't feel like you're about to die, you're not tested and therefore you're not counted.

So to answer your question, they're actually not measuring enough.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#86
post #66
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and not antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine? Because a bunch of these patients are people with suspected, not confirmed, covid-19 and so they're treating pneumonia which they think is probably bacterial but possibly viral. Also, they were thinking that covid-19 in already vulnerable people was damaging the lungs and making b…

> Infected people cough onto a surface, and later someone touches that surface and then their face. And then what? How does the virus get from their face into the lungs in enough quantity to infect them?

> And then what?

They touch their mouth, or eyes, or nose.

> How does the virus get from their face into the lungs in enough quantity to infect them?

They're already infected. I don't understand the question. Are you asking how the virus replicates? It's a strand of RNA that takes over human cell replication. It binds to ACE2, which is how it targets lungs. https://blogs.plos.org/dnascience/2020/02/20/covid-19-vaccin...

People touch their face all day everyday, even when they've been told not to. Even when they're telling other people to stop doing it. https://twitter.com/Kojoanan/status/1235275598697771011

It's unusual for people in public places to be coughed on. I can't think of it happening to me in the past 5 years.

Healthcare professionals wear masks (and goggles, and protective clothing, and sometimes gloves) because their work involves close contact with ill people who are coughing over them.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#87
post #31

How many were so sick that they would have died anyway? I read that they were testing dead people and the theory was, their count was so high because they would add people to it that would have died anyway but just happen to be infected right before their death. Edit: I think this is an interesting question. Why do Italy, France and Spain have such high death ratios? Are they measuring more than needed or are the oth…

I can only speak for France, where I live, but the situation is possibly the same in Spain and Italy. Over here they only test people who are "very sick", in other words people who need medical attention. They are not testing people with no or "mild" symptoms. Basically this means if you don't feel like you're about to die, you're not tested and therefore you're not counted. So to answer your question, they're actual…

In Germany they also only test people who have specific symptoms AND contact to high risk people/places.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#88

This is encouraging for healthy youngsters BUT age and health are also the criteria for receiving treatment in Italy at the moment. As the epidemic grows the categories of people that get ventilation decrease and the deaths will get younger and healthier.

Even if a youngster as a higher change of survival, there are serious effects reported. Fibrosis (damage of the lung tissue) lasts for much longer (over 4 weeks) than it is known in any typical flu. And what happens after 4 weeks is still totally unclear. As we don't know yet of the long term effects, please don't take that lightly!

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Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#89
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is about deaths, not cases. If everyone else tries to get on as normal then the virus will spread like wildfire among them and the elderly and unwell will quickly become infected.

Isolate the elderly and unwell, let the virus spread among the rest.

How could you possibly isolate 10s of millions of people who are thoroughly mixed in with the rest of society? Many of them live with or are dependent on the younger healthier people. Even if the isolation were possible, letting the virus spread like that would overwhelm the health system and push the death rate way up.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#90
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is highly anecdotal, but my family is from a small town in italy, population of ~1500, and the men are way less healthy from a lifestyle perspective - lots of drinking, smoking, hard manual labor without lung protection, etc etc, while the women mostly stay home handling home duties and socializing

I think prior lung damage is going to shake out as the number one prior factor in the likelihood of severe infection and probability of death.

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