50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic • Hacker News Board

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#291

Post by snapetom » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:24 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #224

hellofunk wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s already proven not to be a dud — healthcare systems stretched to beyond 200% capacity is solid evidence of something no one has seen in recent memory. When youngish healthcare workers are dying, something is going on.

Where did you get that number from? A report from Lombardy yesterday says so far everyone with any reasonable chance of recovery has been treated: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... As far as I can tell so far, no hospital systems have collapsed due to this, even in the most extreme hot zones. The fear is that they will, and that sounds totally reasonable. But we also are basing that fear…

> reasonable chance of recovery has been treated

This is the caveat of what you said. The West, and especially Americans, doesn't take kindly to the realities of triaging. See the arguments on "death panels" regarding the Affordable Care Act.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#292

Post by netsharc » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:24 PM UTC

warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

Isn't it the case that most countries in the world don't have enough tests, it seems only South Korea does. I live in Switzerland and they are also restricting tests to higher risk groups, and people with worse conditions (which is a bit grim, how dead do I need to be before I can get a test?)

Either it's due to Olympics, or just logistics. Will the Olympics even happen if Japan is declared "OK" but many guest nations still have sick people?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#293

Post by 12elephant » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #31

jamesrcole wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.

Yeah,and the high hospitalization and ICU rates become high case fatality rates once medical infrastructure is saturated, as well as increasing the case fatality rate for every other condition that creates a critical need for inpatient care. That's where Italy definitely is, and where it seems Iran is evn moreso (though they are less public about it.)

What no one is talking about is how much social distancing/isolation is needed to avoid hospital saturation.

I ran the numbers for Canada, and it looks like we'd need isolation measures for 2+ years.

I don't see how that's a feasible solution long-term.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#294

Post by kazinator » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

> but I still have chest tightness and consistent coughing

Could be hayfever. 花粉症の時期が始まったからね。

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#295

Post by ouaiueoaieaeoiu » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

leftyted wrote: post #288

warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

Sounds like the government is correctly rationing tests. My sense is that the vast majority of the healthy population shouldn't get tested even if they might have the virus because the infrastructure doesn't support widespread testing (anywhere -- as far as I know). They should act as if they have the virus and stay home, rest, drink a lot of water, and take NSAIDs if the pain gets out of hand. I've been sick since l…

Note, France is warning against NSAIDs specifically for COVID-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammat...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#296

Post by bob33212 » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

jfkebwjsbx wrote: post #268

thu2111 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... Lombardy intensive care coordinator Grasselli said he believed that, so far, all patients with a reasonable chance of recovering and living an acceptable quality of life had been treated. I wonder if we're getting mixed messages here; that is, it's inevitable doctors give up on some cases and unplug them from the ICU but that is always a ri…

I don't understand what you don't understand. That quote is literally saying they are over capacity.

What are the results of the "over capacity"? Are hundreds of people who could have recovered from the virus dead today because they didn't have access to oxygen, or ICUs?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#297

Post by nardi » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

nardi wrote: post #107

lend000 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions. It's possible I picked it up elsewhere, and less likely that I have something else with these unique symptoms (I've never a had fever without nasal congestion or gastrointestinal symptoms before). However, I think it makes sense I would be at the lower incubation period range due to the high level of contact with said suspect and the fact that I'm an o…

> "Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions. Just wanted to boost this. With a range of 1–14 days, it's possible for close to 50% of infections to only incubate for ~1 day, and still have a mean of 5.6 days for incubation. Without knowledge of the distribution, the mean means nothing.

Just realized I understated this. It's actually possible for 64.6% of infections to only incubate for 1 day and get a mean of 5.6 days, if the other 35.4% of infections incubate for 14 days (i.e. an extremely bimodal distribution at 1 and 14 days).

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#298

Post by nthj » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #256

sudosteph wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've actually been really surprised by how well he has handled this so far too. The nation-wide lockdown plus direct cash stimulus are exactly the measures I had hoped to see. Pandemics may be one of the rare situations where having authoritarian leadership can actually benefit the populace. Though I guess we have a while before it plays out completely. I have doubts about whether any non-populist president would hav…

Meh. An actual leader would clearly articulate what is going on—he hasn’t done that. An actual leader would tell people not to panic—hasn’t done that. An actual leader would take strong, very visible action against people hoarding supplies or worse reselling them for profit—toilet paper memes are funny until you run out. And quite frankly a real smart leader would have started testing the fuck out every person with a…

It’s up to the states to manage hoarding and reselling, and they are.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#299

Post by spookthesunset » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

gourabmi wrote: post #282

bart_spoon wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why there would be any reason to believe that would be the case. Generally viruses become less deadly over time, not more. The Spanish flu was an outlier.

If only optimism could kill viruses.

Humans are wired for doomsday scenarios. Our brains love to imagine the worst case scenarios.... probably how we survived as a species for so long.

Our brains have not evolved to deal with 24/7 media coupled with social media, HN, Reddit, YouTube and every other information source feeding us a nonstop stream of raw unfiltered data.

Dunno where I’m going with this but our brains latch onto stuff like this and run wild. Multiply by billions of brains doing the same thing and there is a massive social and political pressure to “do something”.

Who the fuck knows what is really happening. We have plenty of “facts” and “information” floating around but no way to make any sense of it. All we can do is imagine the worst and replay “prepare for the worst, hope for the best” or “better safe than sorry”. Except unchecked that attitude can make things worse.

And, in short, that is why I’m not in the office today and pretending to work at home just like everybody else here.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#300

Post by travmatt » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

bart_spoon wrote: post #258

travmatt wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or it could be like the 1918 Spanish flu - a bad first wave that was most dangerous to the elderly, and a second wave that mutated and killed mostly young adults.

I don't know why there would be any reason to believe that would be the case. Generally viruses become less deadly over time, not more. The Spanish flu was an outlier.

I don’t know any reason that wouldn’t be the case, and many/most experts are already predicting a second wave - we don’t know the reasons that the 1918 pandemic mutated to become more lethal, so I don’t know how someone can say that it won’t happen again. Good planning would dictate that we not write off worst case scenarios without reason.