So, how do I know if I am one of those asymptomatic cases?
Assume and act as if you are.
50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
251–260 of 480 posts
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's assuming that all reported cases make up all ACTUAL cases. This is likely completely wrong. What if a much much larger chunk of Italy is already infected and simply not showing symptoms? You would never get permission for a test. Estimates, I found them on Germany's top Robert Koch Institute website [1], suggest that Wuhan underreported cases by a factor between 4.5x and 11.1x (3 separate studies with differen…
I don't think anyone knowledgeable is assuming reported cases make up all or even a significant proportion of infected cases (I myself am in recovery from moderate lung inflammation which is probably COVID-19, but even with very-obviously-not-regular-flu symptoms don't figure in my country's stats because tests are reserved for those requiring hospitalisation) Even if it was actually the case that nearly everyone in…
> I don't think anyone knowledgeable is assuming reported cases make up all or even a significant proportion of infected cases
The WHO explicitly and repeatedly asserted exactly that.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#253Earlier quoted context omitted.
If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.
Hospitals in Italy are over capacity. People are prioritized based on chance of survival. Anyone unlucky is left to die because there is not enough equipment.
You state this as fact. However there are also plenty of other sources of facts that counter yours. Who is right? Who the hell knows.
We now live in an age where you can dig up facts to confirm whatever you want to confirm. Information overload is a real thing.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#254I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…
>Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. Here is a comedy show lambasting Donald Trump for saying he had a hunch this was the case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNfmTMdoao0 Donald Trump's gut probably saved thousands of Americans through closing the borders early (this is a talking point he repeats again and again and I…
I've actually been really surprised by how well he has handled this so far too. The nation-wide lockdown plus direct cash stimulus are exactly the measures I had hoped to see. Pandemics may be one of the rare situations where having authoritarian leadership can actually benefit the populace. Though I guess we have a while before it plays out completely. I have doubts about whether any non-populist president would have taken these steps any sooner.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I am the only person on the planet with a 100% deadly disease why should I force everyone else to suffer because of me?
The fear and suffering alone is enough to have a negative effect on people, so it matters.
So is shutting down the entire worlds economy. That has massive, very real impacts well beyond just money.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. Here is a comedy show lambasting Donald Trump for saying he had a hunch this was the case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNfmTMdoao0 Donald Trump's gut probably saved thousands of Americans through closing the borders early (this is a talking point he repeats again and again and I…
I've actually been really surprised by how well he has handled this so far too. The nation-wide lockdown plus direct cash stimulus are exactly the measures I had hoped to see. Pandemics may be one of the rare situations where having authoritarian leadership can actually benefit the populace. Though I guess we have a while before it plays out completely. I have doubts about whether any non-populist president would hav…
Meh. An actual leader would clearly articulate what is going on—he hasn’t done that. An actual leader would tell people not to panic—hasn’t done that. An actual leader would take strong, very visible action against people hoarding supplies or worse reselling them for profit—toilet paper memes are funny until you run out.
And quite frankly a real smart leader would have started testing the fuck out every person with a pulse. More understanding of how many people have it is important.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
But, like CFR, we don’t know how high the rates are if we have no idea how many people have or had it. Here’s a few first hand accounts of what the illness was like. These folks aren’t even that young and they describe it as being quite mild: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamo... https://www.adn.com/opinions/national-opinions/2020/03/01/i-... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/don-t-panic-say…
> These folks aren’t even that young and they describe it as being quite mild... Take that with a grain of salt. The people for whom it's not mild aren't going to be giving interviews.
It’s literally survivorship bias.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#258I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…
Or it could be like the 1918 Spanish flu - a bad first wave that was most dangerous to the elderly, and a second wave that mutated and killed mostly young adults.
I don't know why there would be any reason to believe that would be the case. Generally viruses become less deadly over time, not more. The Spanish flu was an outlier.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#259I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…
CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.
Technically, the hospitalization rates and ICU rates would also be greatly overestimated due to the number of unidentified asymptomatic cases.
But from a perspective of absolute numbers of patients hospitalized and admitted to ICU, your point stands.
Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is my biggest concern. I don’t even think this is “the big one”
Oh, it's absolutely not "the big one", which is why I'm so frustrated at all of the panic buying. It was pretty clear early on that this isn't that deadly and that the main issue with it is filling up hospitals. We later learned that the whole process from infection to recovery (well, enough to be released from a hospital) is about 2 weeks, maybe less. This isn't some society-collapsing event, but it does require con…
I lived in the Tampa Bay area for 7 years. Twice a year (despite the fact that TB has been very much sparred from impact) hurricane panic ramps up and the region is CLEARED out of wood, petro, water, and canned goods. Hurricane Irma results in a complete wipeout of supplies 2 weeks before landfall. The initial landfall target was Miami and all hell broke loose anyway.