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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#31

Post by dragonwriter »

jamesrcole wrote: post #29
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.

Yeah,and the high hospitalization and ICU rates become high case fatality rates once medical infrastructure is saturated, as well as increasing the case fatality rate for every other condition that creates a critical need for inpatient care.

That's where Italy definitely is, and where it seems Iran is evn moreso (though they are less public about it.)

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#32

Post by Mirioron »

mkagenius wrote: post #17
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #7

Asymptomatic for the entire duration of infection? That sounds bad for reducing R but good for the health of the individual.

I would assume that asymptomatic person has a lesser concentration of virus and hence would be less contagious than the really sick ones

This isn't necessarily true. The big symptoms of almost any infectious disease are actually the body's response to the disease rather than being caused by the disease itself. Things like fever, cough, runny nose are usually (very very often) caused by the body to help fight the infection, rather than the infection itself causing them. This means that not having these symptoms isn't necessarily indicative of not having the disease or having less of it. Sometimes the body doesn't respond right.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#34

Post by alexanderhorl »

Ozzie_osman wrote: post #30
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

I really, really hope so. My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.

Maybe in the end the CFR will be the same as the regular flu.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#35

Post by nostromo »

jamesrcole wrote: post #29
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.

But, like CFR, we don’t know how high the rates are if we have no idea how many people have or had it.

Here’s a few first hand accounts of what the illness was like. These folks aren’t even that young and they describe it as being quite mild:

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamo...

https://www.adn.com/opinions/national-opinions/2020/03/01/i-...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/don-t-panic-says-us-woman-...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#36

Post by Mirioron »

DeonPenny wrote: post #19
uoaei wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you've ever played Plague, Inc. you will find eerie similarities.

Its cause it's completely accurate trust me I've been playing it. Also the Corrupted Blood virus from world of warcraft.

I wonder if games had more mechanics like that whether people would become more aware of how to handle a disease outbreak.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#37

Post by alexanderhorl »

pabo wrote: post #22
mkagenius wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume that asymptomatic person has a lesser concentration of virus and hence would be less contagious than the really sick ones

Unfortunately that's not necessarily the case. I don't have the reference, but I read somewhere that asymptomatic patients may have even larger amounts of the virus, compared to symptomatic people.

At least asymptomatic patients wouldn’t cough around like symptomatic ones do. They’d "only" spread through talking.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#39

Post by cycrutchfield »

nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

This is wishful thinking, and it doesn’t take much examination of the medical literature to realize this fact.

Edit: it's super fucking irresponsible to say "this is going to be like H1N1" when there is no reputable medical literature that supports that position

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#40

Post by trymas »

username90 wrote: post #12

"Everyone we found to have Covid-19 had serious symptoms, so we don't want to waste money testing you if you don't!" I feel this is a trillion dollar mistake, testing more aggressively like South Korea means that you don't have to deploy the army and quarantine people. I had mild symptoms and they refused to test me, what am I to do? Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? I could work from home, but…

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay?

If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

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