21–30 of 480 posts
We've known this for a while. Everyone will get it. You might have it now. Nothing will happen. Still, quarantine for a while because you'll give it to an older person or kid. This isn't about a 20-something year old getting sick. Let your anti-bodies make yourself non-contagious. We are all kindergartens and this is chickenpox basically.
Asymptomatic for the entire duration of infection? That sounds bad for reducing R but good for the health of the individual.
I would assume that asymptomatic person has a lesser concentration of virus and hence would be less contagious than the really sick ones
We've known this for a while. Everyone will get it. You might have it now. Nothing will happen. Still, quarantine for a while because you'll give it to an older person or kid. This isn't about a 20-something year old getting sick. Let your anti-bodies make yourself non-contagious. We are all kindergartens and this is chickenpox basically.
Asymptomatic for the entire duration of infection? That sounds bad for reducing R but good for the health of the individual.
At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates.
Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop.
We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower.
H1N1 was identified as having a scary 0.4% CFR early on and was later found to be much lower, but we didn’t know until after the fact.
An example report from 2009:
https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/1.Briand_epi_7th_July_...
In the end it may have killed over half a million people in 2009 - but for some reason people barely noticed. (Tangent: I wonder if it’s partly the changing media landscape from 2009 to 2020.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't want to spread misinformation here, but u thought I had read several times that children are almost immune from symptoms but can still carry it.
Correct. Not a single child fatality worldwide. This is very different than Spanish Flu and even the regular flu.
I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…
I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…
My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.