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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#441

Post by yellowapple »

ncallaway wrote: post #428
cjbprime wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italy also has the second-oldest population in the world, after Japan. And a below average number of hospital beds available per capita.

I'm not sure what country you're from. If you're from the States (where I see a lot of denialism): Italy has 3.18 beds per 1,000 people. The United States has 2.77 beds per 1,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

I'm not sure what the GP's comment has to do with one's nationality. Both are facts, regardless of whether or not the United States is worse on one of those metrics.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#442

Post by squarefoot »

BurningFrog wrote: post #407
mantap wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

> Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth To be fair, that is true of 95% of humanity. These politicians are representative of their voters, as democracy should be.

Very true. Problem is that, while democracy to be effective requires people to be educated and informed, bad politicians aim to the opposite.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#443

Post by qqqwerty »

irq11 wrote: post #394
sciinfo wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are available all over. You may want to read up.

The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.9% of cases are considered severe, according to the most recent statements from the KCDC: https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017?fbclid=IwAR0tl... Someone is exaggerating, or something is fundamentally inadequate about the Italian response.

South Korea has been administering way more tests than anyone else: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

There is plenty of evidence that many cases are asymptomatic or mild which means the true infection numbers for most countries are likely understated. So the true number of infected individuals in Italy is likely much higher than the reported number of cases.

The other thing to consider, is that with more comprehensive testing, quarantines become more targeted and effective. So South Korea might be having better success in keeping the virus away from at risk populations.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#444

Post by flukus »

irq11 wrote: post #418
flukus wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.8% of cases are considered severe. 0.7% have died, and even that's gone up in the last few days as more cases progress. I don't know the specific stats of how many were severe/critical but it's probably much higher than the mortality rate. If you take a look at the age breakdown of the infected it seems they've been good about keeping it away from the elderly,…

There’s a link, right there in my post, with more recent and relevant data than you’re citing, and it is directly from the Korean health services: 59 / 6767 confirmed cases were severe or critical in Korea at the time of the report. That’s a rate of 0.89% The error bars on that estimate certainly encompass 1-2%, but they don’t span to 20%. Either Korea is doing something fundamentally different, or the 20% number is…

Google translate says:

> "23 people in severe stage and 36 people in serious stage".

Which is a current snapshot, not a total of the cases that have been severe/serious. It seems like they've done pretty well at keeping it away from the elderely where the fatality rate increases dramatically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_S...

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#445

Post by briandear »

tanilama wrote: post #309
muyuan wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a Chinese living in Bay Area. What's described by the Italian doctor was exactly like the situation in Wuhan right after the lockdown for the first 2-3 weeks. Unfortunately, I think it will hit Italy harder this time, China locked down Wuhan but every other provinces send in supplies and doctors to help, just building new hospitals is not enough, and I don't see France/Germany doing the same to Italy. The US res…

Trump's performance so far is a massive disappointment to say the least, and more of a parody even by Trump's standard. I am not sure what he is doing is even remotely serving himself that well either. Addressing the Coronavirus upfront is the only way to cheer up the market right now. Did he really think he can just fight this virus with speech or tweets? This is bothering me no end, and severely impact my confidenc…

And if the shit doesn’t hit that fan will Trump be credited with restraint? Of course not. Literally no matter what he does people on the left will hate him for it.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#446

Post by [deleted] »

irq11 wrote: post #418
flukus wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.8% of cases are considered severe. 0.7% have died, and even that's gone up in the last few days as more cases progress. I don't know the specific stats of how many were severe/critical but it's probably much higher than the mortality rate. If you take a look at the age breakdown of the infected it seems they've been good about keeping it away from the elderly,…

There’s a link, right there in my post, with more recent and relevant data than you’re citing, and it is directly from the Korean health services: 59 / 6767 confirmed cases were severe or critical in Korea at the time of the report. That’s a rate of 0.89% The error bars on that estimate certainly encompass 1-2%, but they don’t span to 20%. Either Korea is doing something fundamentally different, or the 20% number is…

[deleted]

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#447

Post by baddox »

fragsworth wrote: post #363
mantap wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away?

Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#448

Post by briandear »

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #318
soneil wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. I think this is a very interesting effect. China has a fantastic ability to mobilize as one when needed. The vast majority of the time, the insane amount of control this requires, is something we're simply not comfortable with giving to governments. But sometimes, just sometimes, the re…

>What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance. Isn't having a massive military Americas default stance as well?

As a percentage of GDP, the American military isn’t massive. It’s smaller than China’s. It’s smaller than India’s and only slightly bigger than little North Korea.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#449

Post by baddox »

pacala wrote: post #375
tomrod wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an answer, and it is political (thank you for allowing me the indulgence to bring this room-elephant up). There is a slow burn civil war between mission-focused bureaucrats and administration loyalists. Consider: https://twitter.com/Imm_Judges_NAIJ/status/12371515163955363...

I'm not even sure who are the "mission-focused bureaucrats" and who are the "administration loyalists" in that thread. But for the love of God, can we please stop politicizing this issue? Can we please have a moratorium on blaming the other side for whatever measures should / should not be taken? Frankly, nobody knows what to do. Here we are, pondering what to do with the kids. * The school district is open for busin…

Are you saying we should stop blaming the other side because you think the other side isn’t to blame? What if there’s reasonable ways to explain how the other side is to blame? Or are you making an epistemological claim that the other side is never to blame? Or are you claiming that, even if the other side is to blame, we shouldn’t focus on that until we solve the problem?
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