How is locking down an entire city "poor containment". Find it staggering to insinuate that were it originating in Western countries we'd do the same?
On timeline of events, there was a week or so of delay between first death + ICL paper and the city lockdown. It can be argued the lockdown was very late. The OP might also mean poor containment within China - which is only relying on other countries right now.
> containment within China
I find it incredibly hard to believe if this happened in other countries they'd simply ban all travel into and out of the nation.
Would your country do that given the same circumstance?
The official figures in China are 8,163 cases 171 deaths which is 2% right now, but take these with a big grain of salt. They could go up (some of those confirmed cases will be very recent and may get worse) or down (more cases might have happened but be unreported). Its really hard to tell what it will look like in a month or two.
I recommend everyone to watch this on-site commentary from the chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU Any numbers we've seen so far seem very tame to me, compared to the pictures out of Wuhan.
For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
It's too early for data on this coronavirus. There isn't enough organizational capacity in Wuhan to properly capture the numbers; to start with it's difficult for people to get to the hospitals because transit is shutdown, and if they get there it's often pointless because there are very few test kits and no free beds. How many have been infected is impossible to determine.
Not 50%, you misunderstand me. I edited my comment to clarify. What I meant is out of those who came out of the hospital (either dead or recovered), 26% died. So those remaining in the hospital are assumed to have a 26% chance of dying. Another way of looking at probabilities, out of the 57 patients left in the hospital: If 0 die (ie. all recover), the CFR is 11% (11 deads, 88 recovered) If 15 die (26% of 57 still ho…
Looking only at hospitalized populations creates severe selection bias when applied to the question people want answered here, namely "If I get nCOV, what's my chance of dying?" Only the most severe cases a physician sees end up hospitalized, and only the most severe cases within the general population end up being seen by a physician and confirmed as nCOV. You've already got two levels of selection bias (with an unk…
I suspect that “chance of dying” varies based on treatment, and that treatment in an overwhelmed Wuhan hospital is likely not the same as treatment as, say, the first patient in France to get the disease.
Indeed. China’s medical system is primitive by comparison. They have shiny highways and trains, but hospitals are overcrowded and underfunded.
...because they are not for profit so people can actually afford to get help even if they are poor
I think you're a bit off the mark. Healthcare is cheap in China, but people are even poorer. Only rich people can afford the important stuff. It's common for young people from poor families to work or forgo their education to pay their sick parent's medical costs. Usually old people just die because they can't afford medical care where in the west, they would be treated. Also doctors are poorly paid and commonly supplement their income with under the table drug sales. Oh, and most of them prescribe fake herbal medicines as if it was real and patients are fooled by it because their culture tells them it works. Imagine getting a vial of homeopathic diluted water and a sugar pill when you complain about a cough. I once knew someone who had TB and was recommended to treat it with an OTC sachet of herb from the pharmacy! It's common to find beggars outside hospitals with signs asking for money to continue their treatment. Insurance? Yes, that exists but the excess is often something like 1/3 the total cost so if you couldn't afford it yourself, you still can't afford it with insurance. That's if you have a high enough income to afford insurance in the first place.
For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
The scary part is that of the official 8,200 or so people that have been confirmed to have the virus there's been 171 deaths, and 143 recoveries. So more people dead than recovered, does make one wonder about the 8,200. Seems few believe the official numbers, people visit numerous hospitals without being able to seen, and even those that get seen have problems getting tested, and people who posts about the situation…
For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
Well there is something to be said for both potential biases in those counts. First of all, those being hospitalized are obviously among the most severe cases. And presumably people with the mildest cases will potentially not even be diagnosed, so the mortality rates would be skewed higher. And secondly, that more people have died than have recovered doesn't say much other than that it takes longer to recover than to…
The numbers we're getting out of China are a mess and almost entirely useless. There are reports of hospitals turning people away unless they a very sick, and also not testing every ill patient because they're overwhelmed. I've see death certificates posted online with "viral pneumonia" because they aren't able to test everyone - and certainly don't bother testing those who have already died. The errors are both ways…
There was one interesting number though. The Japanese had been evacuating 200 people from Wuhan and found 3 cases. Assume that a plane of evacuees like that is somewhat random sampling. And that evacuees have similar or better hygiene. This puts infection rate at 1% of the population. Official population of Wuhan is 11 million, it is possible that it is larger. This puts the number to 100k cases.
There are already 8243 confirmed cases. https://thewuhanvirus.com/
The number of cases reported has been going up by 30% to 70% every day. People in China are taking a number of measures to limit spread but given the potentially long contagious incubation period of the virus it might be a while for that to reduce the visible increase even if it has been relatively effective.
It seems that this virus spreading too easy, so it's not possible to contain it, not now anyway. The best we can do is to slow it down and develop treatment as soon as possible to reduce number of lethal cases. But it'll infect the whole world anyway and poor countries with bad medicine system will struggle a lot.
Are the symptoms about the same as the flu? Does having it feel like a flu?
It's like a worse version of the flu. The way that you'll die from the flu is getting a secondary pneumonia infection from Staph aureus or Steptococcus pneumonia, the virus just makes you more susceptible and weaker. The major lethal consequence for this virus in the Coronavirus family is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). A strong outcome for this is we knock you out, put a tube down your throat, and have y…
If you have that ventilator, can you still die? How? Can the "respiratory distress" get worse without limit?