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WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

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Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#131

Stupid question: is it possible that hygiene practices contribute to outbreaks like this? I remember reading or hearing that one input to recent wildfires was the fact that decades of controlled burns to limit the spread of wildfires left a lot of available fuel that otherwise would have burned naturally. So in that vein, do we have humans with compromised immunity thriving but susceptible to inter-species mutations…

Hygiene practices can prevent the spread of diseases like this. Wash your hands, don't touch your face, etc. Wear a surgical mask and limit interactions with others if you're sick. But this virus spreads via droplet transmission, so just being within 6 feet of someone who's infected (and coughs/sneezes) is enough to spread it. If you're referring to the overuse of hand sanitizer and other disinfectant agents, it migh…

> If you're referring to the overuse of hand sanitizer and other disinfectant agents

I'm thinking more generally: I was thinking along these lines because the news report I heard [1] described 'wet markets' as a place where disease spread. I'd never heard of it before. But it occurred to me that centuries ago, this kind of thing might have been more common. Processes and regulations for handling of animal products are a net benefit but I wonder if there are any drawbacks.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2020/01/29/800725826/why-wet-markets-are...

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few passages from the article: > But the trouble is, they don’t appear to be helpful. At best, travel restrictions, and even airport screenings, delay the spread of disease but don’t impact the number of people who eventually get sick . Instead, they make it harder for international aid and experts to reach communities affected by disease. They are also expensive, resource-intensive, and potentially harmful to the…

How can a ban only on nonessential travel affect aid workers and experts, who are clearly essential?

Because now they have to go through all the paperwork, waiting and hassle to document that they "clearly" are essential... several times. Bureaucracy is never, ever frictionless.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't make any sense if I step through it mentally. If you're a carrier of a virus and you have to hoof it to my end of the world, it's going to take you a whole lot longer to get there than if you flew. This is absolute fact. The faster vectors you give to something to transport a thing, that thing will move to its destination that much faster. You don't need science to grok this.

A few passages from the article: > But the trouble is, they don’t appear to be helpful. At best, travel restrictions, and even airport screenings, delay the spread of disease but don’t impact the number of people who eventually get sick . Instead, they make it harder for international aid and experts to reach communities affected by disease. They are also expensive, resource-intensive, and potentially harmful to the…

The article is innumerate, conflating "doesn't stop" with "doesn't mitigate." The reason is, epidemics don't play out in a manner such that everybody gets exposed with the same severity or to an identical strain of the virus.

That's why staying home from work when sick actually helps.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#134

Stupid question: is it possible that hygiene practices contribute to outbreaks like this? I remember reading or hearing that one input to recent wildfires was the fact that decades of controlled burns to limit the spread of wildfires left a lot of available fuel that otherwise would have burned naturally. So in that vein, do we have humans with compromised immunity thriving but susceptible to inter-species mutations…

I think you're remembering the fire bit backwards. A lack of controlled burns due to discontinuation of indigenous practices and budget cuts combined with increased fire fighting (preventing natural burns) caused fuel to build up in forests that would have burned away in smaller fires. Many plants in Australia are actually adapted to frequent fires like the eucalyptus tree whose oils ignite during fires to wipe out a…

> I think you're remembering the fire bit backwards. A lack of controlled burns due to discontinuation of indigenous practices and budget cuts combined with increased fire fighting (preventing natural burns) caused fuel to build up in forests that would have burned away in smaller fires.

Yes, my mistake, that's probably it.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#135
post #35

It's about time... All early characteristics of the novel coronavirus indicate it's far more dangerous than SARS/MERS/seasonal flu (which kills 30-60k/year in the US) so, unless a cure is found soon, we should expect it to kill more people than these other diseases combined : https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/122263149332482867...

Stop spreading misinformation and getting your information from Twitter, and when you do—try reading it first. Even when compared to SARS in that chart it looks like it has a lower R0 value and about the same fatality rate, minus some odd outliers and what it likely fake news (it doesn't have a fatality rate of 56%). And the citation for that 56% number is a link another link to Twitter… that is self referential. And…

Yes I made the table, but which part of this table is misinformation? All data is valid. Twitter is not a good format to present a bunch of data, hence the convoluted link to a link to a link...

However, for your information, the 56% case fatality ratio is calculated according to an epidemiological method known to produce a good estimate. See https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ebf2/48c9fc0a1a23d1778b9408..., section Simple Estimators, specifically this formula:

e₂(s)=D(s)/{D(s)+R(s)} which is: deaths/(deaths+recoveries)

And the paper concludes: "The second simple estimate based on the ratio of deaths of those for whom the outcome is known, e₂, is reasonable at most points in the epidemic" ie. produces a good estimate of the eventual observed case fatality rate.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can a ban only on nonessential travel affect aid workers and experts, who are clearly essential?

Because now they have to go through all the paperwork, waiting and hassle to document that they "clearly" are essential... several times. Bureaucracy is never, ever frictionless.

That may well be the case. I don't have any firsthand knowledge of the process. Do you?

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#137

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Are the symptoms about the same as the flu? Does having it feel like a flu?

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#138
post #127
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases (laboratories have only so many test kits available per day) but most people stay asymptomatic. Do you have evidence of that in this case? Viruses vary widely on how many are asymptomatic. My understanding is that having people be infectious and asymptomatic only happens with diseases that are well-adapted to their hosts. Which this one, hav…

There have been quite a few cases covered in the press about patients which carried the virus but didn't show any symptoms. Most recently: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three...

Thanks.

If they in fact can't transmit, then this is OK. If they can or, even worse, have a long latency period and will show symptoms in 2 weeks, that is very, very scary.

Our best tool for diseases like this is contact tracing. And asymptomatic carriers make that very hard.

(Useless trivia, the first documented asymptomatic carrier who was infectious was a short order cook named Mary Mallon. She is better known as Typhoid Mary.)

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#139
post #5
post #4

WHO spent the majority of the press briefing in very eerie and artificial sounding praise of China. Also, despite declaring a global emergency, they advise against restriction measures for international travel, which personally boggles the mind. At some point they vapidly ask "Where is the science behind this?". The science behind this is the discovery of viruses and the impossibility of teleportation.

>they advise against restriction measures for international travel, which personally boggles the mind. >At some point they vapidly ask "Where is the science behind this?". The science behind this is the discovery of viruses and the impossibility of teleportation. but it's true though. there's limited evidence that travel bans will stop the spread of the infection. the evidence ranges between "no effect at all" to "de…

Other studies say travel restrictions delay infection by 2-3 weeks which is precious extra time for vaccine development and rollout. An extra month matters

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#140

Coronavirus: -5,974 confirmed cases -170 deaths [1]For comparisons the SARS outbreak of 2003: -8,098 people worldwide became sick -774 died [1] https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

There are already 8243 confirmed cases. https://thewuhanvirus.com/

The number of cases reported has been going up by 30% to 70% every day. People in China are taking a number of measures to limit spread but given the potentially long contagious incubation period of the virus it might be a while for that to reduce the visible increase even if it has been relatively effective.
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