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How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
People keeps saying things like, "Yeah, well last year way more people died of the flu!" Yeah, well that was an entire year . This is a few weeks. The goal is to get ahead of things, not to wait until it's too late.
How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
If nothing else, it's worse in that there's zero vaccination mitigation available. If the flu vaccine was 0% effective this year, that would also be a health emergency. On top of that, it seems to have worse mortality rate, transmissibility rate, and asymptomatic contagion -- so a little worse in every way, probably. As with the flu, you're very unlikely to be personally killed by it unless you're over 65, under 5, o…
Running the official numbers, mortality rate is less than 3%. If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections, mortality is less than 1%. Unless you are in a sensitive age group or have other health problems, data suggests you're most likely to get over it as a regular flu. It's not all perfect and is worse than a regular flu, but especially now after the announcement some people may way over-st…
How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
Where are you getting that number? It a magnitude of 10 off
How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>they advise against restriction measures for international travel, which personally boggles the mind. >At some point they vapidly ask "Where is the science behind this?". The science behind this is the discovery of viruses and the impossibility of teleportation. but it's true though. there's limited evidence that travel bans will stop the spread of the infection. the evidence ranges between "no effect at all" to "de…
This doesn't make any sense if I step through it mentally. If you're a carrier of a virus and you have to hoof it to my end of the world, it's going to take you a whole lot longer to get there than if you flew. This is absolute fact. The faster vectors you give to something to transport a thing, that thing will move to its destination that much faster. You don't need science to grok this.
The article doesn't deny that. One study found exactly what you've claimed.
>A study looking at [the arrival of H1N1 swine flu in 2009] found [travel restrictions] “only led to an average delay in the arrival of the infection in other countries (i.e. the first imported case) of less than three days.”
The problem with quarantines seems to be that their effects are minimal unless you lock everything down AND somehow find and quarantine the already infected who got in, which no country has ever done.
Coronavirus: -5,974 confirmed cases -170 deaths [1]For comparisons the SARS outbreak of 2003: -8,098 people worldwide became sick -774 died [1] https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html
Currently the number of fully recovered people is lower than the number of deaths.
Coronavirus: -5,974 confirmed cases -170 deaths [1]For comparisons the SARS outbreak of 2003: -8,098 people worldwide became sick -774 died [1] https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html
For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
It's about time... All early characteristics of the novel coronavirus indicate it's far more dangerous than SARS/MERS/seasonal flu (which kills 30-60k/year in the US) so, unless a cure is found soon, we should expect it to kill more people than these other diseases combined : https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/122263149332482867...