Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

cbc.ca

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 465 posts

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#251

Post by ttul »

hurricanetc wrote: post #233
cheeseblubber wrote: post #43

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Those are US numbers only. The CDC estimates that 291,000 to 646,000 people die worldwide every year. You cannot take the US mortality rate and assume it would apply to any other country and especially not China. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-esti...

Indeed. China’s medical system is primitive by comparison. They have shiny highways and trains, but hospitals are overcrowded and underfunded.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#252

Post by pmoriarty »

netsharc wrote: post #208
Roritharr wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend everyone to watch this on-site commentary from the chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU Any numbers we've seen so far seem very tame to me, compared to the pictures out of Wuhan.

TL;DW/DR the subtitles: he saw a lot of chaos in Wuhan's hospitals. Not enough testing kits, not enough government-requisitioned emergency taxis. Taxi drivers were already talking to each other in December saying "avoid the market". If you don't want to read subtitles for 26 minutes here's all the subtitles copy-pasted from the video: https://pastebin.com/6hJ4h4rm (You can hit the "..." above the red subscribe button…

Thank you so much for this transcript.

Reading through it made it clear that:

1 - Wuhan's health care system is overwhelmed

2 - There's not enough transportation, test kits, masks, and hospital beds, or volunteers

3 - Many sick people are not even bothering to go to the hospital

4 - There's poor communication and rumors flying around

5 - People are frightened, panicking, and suspecting the worst

This tells me that:

A - there are likely way more people infected than there are confirmed cases, but possibly more deaths too of those who never made it in to hospitals

B - Many wouldn't have died had they had more adequate health care, better transportation and more test kits

So, for the rest of us who are sitting on our hands now, glued to social media or the television waiting to see how this will unfold, our time would be much more productively spent planning for when the outbreak hits our local area.

Volunteer. Get connected with volunteer organizations. Donate. See what you can do to ensure there's adequate transportation, communication and resources when the outbreak hits your area.

One thing I'm really curious about that I haven't heard covered yet is if people who get sick and recover become immune. If so, they should feel safe in volunteering to come in contact with the sick and help them directly after they've recovered themselves.

Cooperation, preparation, organization, and mutual aid are crucial.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#253

Post by bart_spoon »

sliken wrote: post #238
cheeseblubber wrote: post #43

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

The scary part is that of the official 8,200 or so people that have been confirmed to have the virus there's been 171 deaths, and 143 recoveries. So more people dead than recovered, does make one wonder about the 8,200. Seems few believe the official numbers, people visit numerous hospitals without being able to seen, and even those that get seen have problems getting tested, and people who posts about the situation…

Well there is something to be said for both potential biases in those counts. First of all, those being hospitalized are obviously among the most severe cases. And presumably people with the mildest cases will potentially not even be diagnosed, so the mortality rates would be skewed higher.

And secondly, that more people have died than have recovered doesn't say much other than that it takes longer to recover than to die. If you are going to die, it would appear that it would happen sooner rather than later. Whereas if you aren't going to die, you may take awhile before you've been officially cured.

That isn't to say that is absolutely what is happening here. But both scenarios are fairly likely, and therefore should mediate some of the bleakness of those numbers for the time being.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#254

Post by lubujackson »

jansan wrote: post #168
twelvechairs wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The official figures in China are 8,163 cases 171 deaths which is 2% right now, but take these with a big grain of salt. They could go up (some of those confirmed cases will be very recent and may get worse) or down (more cases might have happened but be unreported). Its really hard to tell what it will look like in a month or two.

On April 1st 2003, when SARS was in full swing, the WHO reported 1622 cases and 58 deaths. That is a rate of 3.5%. In June 2003 (at the end of the SARS outbreak) the official figure was almost ten percent. From this comparison you can expect the mortality rate of the new corona virus to be at around 6 to 8%. Source: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/press2003_04_01/en/ (search for "deaths")

It is dangerous to extrapolate like this because the big differences are in incubation time and the fact that the novel coronavirus is likely spreadable before the carrier has a fever or other detectable sign. If that's the case, tracking the spread might as well be impossible because multiple people could be the potential source without a clear way to trace it, especially in a hospital setting.

On the flip side, the R0 (rate of transmission) and death rate might be a good clip lower than currently estimated. On the other hand, China walled off a city but part of their motivation might have been the flack they got for moving slowly with SARS.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#255

Post by iliketosleep »

Roritharr wrote: post #234
colinprince wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I watched the whole thing. It was riveting. Don't forget to turn on CC if you need translation. It is a volunteer transalation. The reporter, Chen Qiushi, describes his observations in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million. His preamble: "My name has been flagged in China." "If the content contains 'Chenqiushi' or 'CQS', or my face, it will not be sent on Wechat. ... if you [share on wechat], your wechat account will…

I really wonder if I made myself unemployable in China because I posted this. How far does the censoring actually go?

It goes far enough that your concern is valid. Since HN is not exactly mainstream and many Chinese people are posting similar kinds of videos, you're probably okay in this case. However, if you want to make honest comments about China online and still want to travel there, I highly recommend that you post anonymously.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#256

Post by sliken »

mantap wrote: post #237
netsharc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TL;DW/DR the subtitles: he saw a lot of chaos in Wuhan's hospitals. Not enough testing kits, not enough government-requisitioned emergency taxis. Taxi drivers were already talking to each other in December saying "avoid the market". If you don't want to read subtitles for 26 minutes here's all the subtitles copy-pasted from the video: https://pastebin.com/6hJ4h4rm (You can hit the "..." above the red subscribe button…

The way the central government is handling this is impressive, quarantining a city of that size is unprecedented and has bought the world extra time to prepare. Yes the WHO are playing politics when they focus on the good things China is doing and ignore the bad. But personally I think they are closer to the truth than those who present an entirely negative version of events. China's response has been 70% good :)

It would be more impressive if it wasn't a month after the problem started and after 5M people left.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#257

Post by mrb »

svara wrote: post #207
mrb wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the WHO declares something a "global health emergency" we have valid reasons to be alarmist :) I think that "going back 6 days" is insufficient, so your conclusion of a 6% probability is unsupported. Given the extreme state of paranoia around the world (eg. authorities testing people coming out of airplanes) it is likely that cases outside China are detected very early after the onset of symptoms. As such, death…

We can speculate all night, it remains speculation. All I've done is use the numbers you suggested to point out inconsistencies. Yet you keep finding reasons for why we are almost literally all going to die (with mortality rates of up to around 50%), when you have no more insight into this than anyone else in this thread. Everybody is taking this seriously, but playing prophet of doom is really shitty and has all sor…

I suppose I didn't communicate clearly. I never said we are all going to die. For one, we are probably going to find a vaccine or treatment. And the eventual observed CFR may end up being in the lower end of what I quote (9%) instead of the upper end (56%).

You tried to point out 1 inconsistency, and I replied back saying it wasn't an inconsistency ("0 actual vs 2 expected is statistically insignificant.") It's too early to tell if the CFR outside China will differ from the CFR in China.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#258

Post by fctorial »

sliken wrote: post #238
cheeseblubber wrote: post #43

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

The scary part is that of the official 8,200 or so people that have been confirmed to have the virus there's been 171 deaths, and 143 recoveries. So more people dead than recovered, does make one wonder about the 8,200. Seems few believe the official numbers, people visit numerous hospitals without being able to seen, and even those that get seen have problems getting tested, and people who posts about the situation…

> The scary part is that of the official 8,200 or so people that have been confirmed to have the virus there's been 171 deaths, and 143 recoveries.

It isn't that bad. It means that this virus won't kill more than 50% of population even if we were to shut down all research right now.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#259

Post by sliken »

DarthGhandi wrote: post #221
throwaway846657 wrote: post #28

It seemed during the conference that they were trying their best to not step on Beijing's toes. I wonder if they think China would stop cooperating if they called them out on their poor containment procedures.

How is locking down an entire city "poor containment". Find it staggering to insinuate that were it originating in Western countries we'd do the same?

Corona virus was first detected in mid December. Things got pretty serious over the next 4 weeks, 5M people left the city before any containment happened.

So of course now everywhere in China has it, not exactly a good containment. The Wuhan mayor said he'd been talking to the China administration for 4 weeks before being allowed to talk about it to the public.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#260

Post by sudosysgen »

Waterluvian wrote: post #122
postalrat wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like one order? You might be more wrong than him.

Isn't it like 0.09% of deaths vs 2% of deaths? I certainly could be misunderstanding the data!

0.1 vs 2 is slightly over one order of magnitude.
Post reply on HN