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WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

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Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#231

Post by themagician »

mrb wrote: post #209
themagician wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the data is not valid. You give no citations for half your numbers and half the cells are empty. It's 100% bogus garbage. You are creating and spreading fake news. You might not be a bad person, but right now you are being a bad person.

« All the data is not valid » That's a non-answer. My data is valid. I challenge you to point out specific errors. My data comes from two sources: 1) Initially I replicated the chart by Dr. Melvin Sanicas, a vaccinologist and public health physician, that he posted on twitter (here: https://twitter.com/Vaccinologist/status/1220469109378502658 ). He had no citations for his numbers. So I performed light fact-checking…

Okay here's an answer: the whole thing is misinformation. Mashing together incomplete data sets to make a point is… nothing. That's not a thing. That's not science or data. That's garbage.

If you're not a troll you should take a step back and actually THINK about what you are doing. You are creating misinformation, posting it, then reposting it elsewhere and citing yourself.

Stop it. Stop being a garbage human trying to scare people with nonsense. Be better. No "what ifs" or "whatabouts". Delete your comments, delete your tweets and try to be a better person.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#232

Post by chaostheory »

gruez wrote: post #229
chaostheory wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other studies say travel restrictions delay infection by 2-3 weeks which is precious extra time for vaccine development and rollout. An extra month matters

Where are these "other studies"?

They’re on google.

This took me less than a minute to find: https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/14-135590/en/

That WHO post argues against travel restrictions, yet:

“In one simulation, border controls preventing 99.9% of cases entering any given country delayed epidemic spread by up to 35 days.”

35 days is a lot of time, assuming a vaccine rollout is inevitable and successful

There are other papers which are proponents for controlling and restricting travel.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#233

Post by hurricanetc »

cheeseblubber wrote: post #43

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Those are US numbers only. The CDC estimates that 291,000 to 646,000 people die worldwide every year. You cannot take the US mortality rate and assume it would apply to any other country and especially not China.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-esti...

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#234

Post by Roritharr »

colinprince wrote: post #213
Roritharr wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend everyone to watch this on-site commentary from the chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU Any numbers we've seen so far seem very tame to me, compared to the pictures out of Wuhan.

I watched the whole thing. It was riveting. Don't forget to turn on CC if you need translation. It is a volunteer transalation. The reporter, Chen Qiushi, describes his observations in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million. His preamble: "My name has been flagged in China." "If the content contains 'Chenqiushi' or 'CQS', or my face, it will not be sent on Wechat. ... if you [share on wechat], your wechat account will…

I really wonder if I made myself unemployable in China because I posted this.

How far does the censoring actually go?

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#235

Post by forever_spring »

DarthGhandi wrote: post #221
throwaway846657 wrote: post #28

It seemed during the conference that they were trying their best to not step on Beijing's toes. I wonder if they think China would stop cooperating if they called them out on their poor containment procedures.

How is locking down an entire city "poor containment". Find it staggering to insinuate that were it originating in Western countries we'd do the same?

On timeline of events, there was a week or so of delay between first death + ICL paper and the city lockdown. It can be argued the lockdown was very late.

The OP might also mean poor containment within China - which is only relying on other countries right now.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#236

Post by oefrha »

mhandley wrote: post #217
mrb wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very good observation on these 10 provinces. But I would apply caution when interpreting a cherry-picked data subset. Nitpick: I don't claim "20-56%" death rate, but "9-56%", thus your observation of a 10% CFR is in line with my claim.

One other observation, for what it's worth. According to the John Hopkins site, between 29th Jan and 30th Jan updates (that's the data I happen to have access to), we have worldwide: * 29th: deaths 133, recovered 126 * 30th: deaths 171, recovered 143 But for Hubei, we get: * 29th: deaths 125, recovered 88 * 30th: deaths 162, recovered 90 Which looks like the death rate is going up in Hubei. Subtracting Hubei though,…

Not really surprising considering medical resources in Hubei are heavily strained, not all severe cases can be diagnosed timely and given enough attention afterwards, which is not true elsewhere.

Edit: Oh you mentioned this yourself in another comment.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#237

Post by mantap »

netsharc wrote: post #208
Roritharr wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend everyone to watch this on-site commentary from the chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU Any numbers we've seen so far seem very tame to me, compared to the pictures out of Wuhan.

TL;DW/DR the subtitles: he saw a lot of chaos in Wuhan's hospitals. Not enough testing kits, not enough government-requisitioned emergency taxis. Taxi drivers were already talking to each other in December saying "avoid the market". If you don't want to read subtitles for 26 minutes here's all the subtitles copy-pasted from the video: https://pastebin.com/6hJ4h4rm (You can hit the "..." above the red subscribe button…

The way the central government is handling this is impressive, quarantining a city of that size is unprecedented and has bought the world extra time to prepare.

Yes the WHO are playing politics when they focus on the good things China is doing and ignore the bad. But personally I think they are closer to the truth than those who present an entirely negative version of events. China's response has been 70% good :)

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#238

Post by sliken »

cheeseblubber wrote: post #43

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

The scary part is that of the official 8,200 or so people that have been confirmed to have the virus there's been 171 deaths, and 143 recoveries. So more people dead than recovered, does make one wonder about the 8,200.

Seems few believe the official numbers, people visit numerous hospitals without being able to seen, and even those that get seen have problems getting tested, and people who posts about the situation get the post pulled or pressured to pulled themselves.

Here's an article describing the censorship (pulled posts), arrests for "rumor mongering", difficulty in getting tested, etc:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-testing-insi...

This one documents 15% of 41 people getting hospitalized dying:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#239

Post by Fomite »

el_benhameen wrote: post #222
Fomite wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Eric Ding has been tweeting pretty terrible misinformation, and is being rightly dragged for it by pretty much every epidemiologist I know on Twitter, including myself. His takes are bad . He's called this virus's R0 the worst he's seen in his career, which is absurd. He's conflated R0 and attack rate. Familiar errors because no one pays attention to ID epidemiology until there's an outbreak, and then suddenly de…

I’ve seen your comments on several CoV articles here, and this one, like the others, has really helped me contextualize the information I’m seeing and feel a little less nervous. Thanks for taking the time to add your input here.

My pleasure.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#240

Post by dumbfoundded »

aqme28 wrote: post #214
mrb wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

« assume that when a case is confirmed the death or cured status is also determined at that moment » This is why epidemiologists (ref: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ebf2/48c9fc0a1a23d1778b9408... or https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22195827 for my comment on the paper) prefer instead this formula which only counts patients for which the eventual outcome is already known: deaths / (deaths + recoveries) With thi…

Patient timelines still matter. It takes longer to recover than it does to die, so it would make sense to compare current recoveries with the number of deaths from several days ago. But without knowing the patient timeline, I couldn't tell you how many.

This is a great point and we should also normalize it to similar flu's in the region. Quality of treatment will vary greatly.
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