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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#331

Post by pbreit »

FireBeyond wrote: post #232
pbreit wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a better comparison (another company where owners love their cars): Tesla built 35x as many cars as Ferrari and is valued at 3x. Tesla trades at 4x sales, Ferrari at 8x. Having been in business longer is not always advantage and is frequently a disadvantage.

How on earth is a reasonable comparison Company A, whose _most expensive_ car _tops out_ at about $140K, and Company B, whose _least expensive_ car _starts_ at $335K. These are not remotely comparable companies, regardless of how much "owner love" each may have.

Ferraris start at $215k vs Roadster at $250k. I don't think the comp is as bad as you suggest. More appropriate than GM/Ford.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#332

Post by aviraldg »

genS3 wrote: post #327
boardwaalk wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re about one step away in battery tech (which Tesla leads on, among other things (efficiency, integration, etc) from a mid range electric car be upfront cost equivalent with an mid range gas car. Once that’s there, plus charging infrastructure (which is rapidly coming up) the other benefits (maintenance, torque, quiet, fuel costs, etc) will be front and center for every car buyer making the choice between the two…

do they have a roadmap for charging infrastructure? What if they sell millions and it takes 20min to charge knowing that most people will charge at similar times when going to work?

Wouldn't most people just charge at home, overnight?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#333

Post by auiya »

sergiosgc wrote: post #263
auiya wrote: post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

Porsche planned to build 30k to 50k Taycans. It is a market test by Porsche, not a real competitor to the model S.

That's roughly four times the number of 911's they sell every year, and they're all back ordered. Sounds like a successful test to me. How many Tesla Model S's are sold each year?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#334

Post by vardump »

vardump wrote: post #288
Slartie wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized, which had been the case for a long time with a lot of EV charging spots over here, although only by accident - at least about 50% of the comparable gas price per mileage. Can be even more than 100% in some corner cases, but I think 50% is a good approximation, assuming you charge mostly at home.

> At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized... In Germany, 1 kWh costs over 30 cents. As far as I know, that's one of the highest rates in "Western" countries. If electric cars make sense in Germany, then they can succeed pretty much anywhere. Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#Global_com... lists Germany price/kWh at 0.35 USD, making it indeed…

So perplexed, why did this get downvoted? Everything is factually correct.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#335

Post by Robotbeat »

auiya wrote: post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

To the degree that some major motor companies are still investing in hydrogen for passenger vehicles, Tesla might actually be undervalued. Hydrogen makes no sense for cars. Zero sense whatsoever when we have decent BEVs.

Synthetic petrol makes more sense technically than hydrogen but has all the non-climate drawbacks of fossil fuels and is twice as expensive (with extremely low round-trip efficiency compared to a true electric car... like maybe a factor of 5 to 10 worse?) as regular fossil fuels.

Taycan is not a better vehicle "by all reviews," but it is a decent vehicle, the only electric car by a non-startup manufacturer other than Tesla that is compelling. Its very low efficiency strongly limits its mass market uptake (low range, expensive charge, slow charge even with the 800V, expensive battery, etc) vs Tesla's vehicles, although might be okay for high margin vehicles.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#336

Post by sib »

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

On top of that: no (physical) keyboard, no GPS, no 3G support.

They were almost the textbook definition of a disruptive product (worse on traditional metrics by which products compete, but better on some key factors that have customer value)...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#337

Post by tigershark »

ilikehurdles wrote: post #227
aerovistae wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

VW group is going very heavily for mainstream EVs, seriously ramping up production, and the models don't look like the toy concept EVs of yore either. Maybe Audi and BMW have to think about what it means to make a competitive EV since their price-points are similar to Tesla's, but VW proper will be pushing EVs at the ~$30k MSRP range. They don't need to be more advanced than a Tesla at that price because there is no…

Volkswagen ID.3 will be ~30k€ not 30k$, so about 33k$. Tesla model 3 is ~40k$ not 50k$. So it’s only 7k$ difference, not 20k$ as you wrongly assume.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#338

Post by omnimus »

kingnothing wrote: post #307
slumdev wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

As a counter point to this, gas in Atlanta costs $3.11 for premium. A BMW 3 series gets about 30mpg. Driving 1000 miles per month in the BMW costs $104 in gas. GA Power offers $.01 per kilowatt hour rates in the middle of the night. A Tesla Model 3 gets 2.91 miles / kWh. Driving 1000 miles per month in the Tesla costs $3.44. Fueling the Tesla costs $1200 less per year than the BMW if you drive an average number of mi…

If 1000 miles / month is an average US mileage... well then maybe there needs to be some way how to lower that.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#339

Post by leetcrew »

LastZactionHero wrote: post #308
slumdev wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

If commercials tell me anything about what car buyers value, there are so many other apsects John Q Public would appreciate! John likes fast cars. And oh boy my Nissan Leaf is fun to drive! Mountain driving feels like floating silently into the air. Instant torque, no gear shifting. John may also appreciate the extra leg room, as even a compact car gains a lot of room without a gas engine. John also likes saving mone…

> And oh boy my Nissan Leaf is fun to drive!

just curious, what else have you driven to compare it against? I rarely hear even hardcore EV enthusiasts describe that car as "fun".

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#340

Post by d1zzy »

aviraldg wrote: post #332
genS3 wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do they have a roadmap for charging infrastructure? What if they sell millions and it takes 20min to charge knowing that most people will charge at similar times when going to work?

Wouldn't most people just charge at home, overnight?

That may work in suburban America but I'm not so sure about the rest of the world. Most of my life I've lived in apartment complexes (US) / blocks of flats (Europe) where there was no car charging possibility when parking. It would require huge infrastructure changes to allow most people to be able to charge at home and work, this is different from gas powered vehicles where you need a relatively small number of (centralized) points that distribute fuel. With electric cars that number needs to be much larger and it's distributed.

It can be done over decades for sure but it won't happen overnight.

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