Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#281

Post by vardump » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:33 PM UTC

notJim wrote: post #174

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

> Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently.

I thought that was in 2012? Of course "recently" is kind of subjective.

Edit: Ah, so they only introduced plug-in hybrids in the United States in 2016. Wonder what took them so long.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#282

Post by MBCook » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

coder1001 wrote: post #217

MBCook wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.

For a company breaking new grounds and pushing EVs, I would give them at least another 10 years. It is not ideal, but you have to take into account that it takes time to build your network (charging/service centers etc.). That's why if the money comes, the rest will fall into place (in time of course!).

So if I were to buy a Tesla today I should expect their service department to be problematic for possibly 10 years?

That doesn’t sound odd to you?

I get when they were selling the roadster or early S. But 10 years from now?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#283

Post by Damogran6 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

mikestew wrote: post #36

taf2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so i have an x and when it rains we do sometimes get some water into the back seat when raising the trunk... but to keep this in perspective... the car is like an iphone compared to your flip phone. 2007 was a long time ago so maybe people forget just how impactful that phone was when people first tried it out. That is the exact same experience I have had when first owning and S and now an X. A minor issue like water…

Imagine if you were annoyed at the UI in your current car. Don’t have to, the UI in the Leaf (at least in the first gen), sucks. But you know what would annoy me more? If my $50K+ car leaked water. That’s something the industry figured out over fifty years ago. I’ll take a shitty UI over over water invading spaces I won’t find out about until the rust and bad wiring show up.

Depends on the vehicle...Our C5 Corvette didn't get teh last minute deflectors and used to spill water on the rear speakers when opening in the wet.

They fix a lot of problems, but the customers demanding new designs every few years means we still keep fixing some of the same problems over and over.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#284

Post by auiya » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:35 PM UTC

cdkee wrote: post #266

auiya wrote: post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

People have been saying this for years. However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption. The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint. Honda announced recently that they will be focusing on hybrid technology, not full electric. Toyota is backing their Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. GM has the Bolt, a s…

"As it turns out, through October 2019, Audi has sold about 17,500 e-Trons globally, compared to about 21,600 for the Tesla."[1]

"With clients able to register their interest, Porsche has collected almost as many pre-orders as they plan to produce electric vehicles. The Handelsblatt quotes Porsches HR Director Andreas Haffner on the status of registrations to order the manufacturer’s first electric model. Says Haffner: 'There are 30,000 orders for the Taycan.'"[2]

Right, clearly all DOA. The model 3 has no competition because the major auto manufacturers are moving away from the sedan platform entirely to SUVs and trucks. It fills a small market niche, but one that's quickly slowing as a percentage of total vehicle sales.

> However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption

Neither has Tesla if we're honest.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2019/11/29/audi-w...

[2] https://www.electrive.com/2019/07/29/porsche-reveals-number-...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#285

Post by birdyrooster » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:36 PM UTC

The comments here seem to be lacking one perspective: Global climate change is going to force governments to ban the sale of internal combustion engines for consumer use. The markets are pricing in the expected regulations, which is why Tesla is getting such a premium since they are the most mature in the coming regulatory environment.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#286

Post by legulere » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:40 PM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #251

California law as of Jan 1 requires all new houses to have solar panels, EV charging port, no natural gas allowed. This 100% electric future being forced is attractive to Wall Street as it forces change, despite adding ~300k to the house price. Wall Street bares no relation to the street where cars are powered by gasoline or diesel with few exceptions. It takes 75 minutes to charge a Tesla EV, much longer in cold cli…

At least in Germany it costs more like 15k for the roof of a big house.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#287

Post by MrPowers » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

kbutler wrote: post #175

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you borrow $300 billion you still have $300 billion in assets. Unless something unexpected changes, Ford won't be able to realize that Enterprise value. The number of car companies will shrink, not grow, evs are just the wave over the horizon that will really hurt them. Tesla actually has a chance to drastically grow their sales.

Right - $300 billion in assets, plus $300 billion in debts means the company is worth: a) $600 billion b) $300 billion c) $0 If you choose anything other than c, I'd love to sell you some businesses.

assets + liabilities = book_value_of_equity

The intrinsic value of a company's equity often differs from the book value of equity.

The book value debt can also differ from the market value.

Learning some financial accounting concepts should help you understand this better.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#288

Post by vardump » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

Slartie wrote: post #155

bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized, which had been the case for a long time with a lot of EV charging spots over here, although only by accident - at least about 50% of the comparable gas price per mileage. Can be even more than 100% in some corner cases, but I think 50% is a good approximation, assuming you charge mostly at home.

> At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized...

In Germany, 1 kWh costs over 30 cents. As far as I know, that's one of the highest rates in "Western" countries.

If electric cars make sense in Germany, then they can succeed pretty much anywhere.

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#Global_com... lists Germany price/kWh at 0.35 USD, making it indeed the most expensive Western country at least by quick eyeballing.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#289

Post by kakwa_ » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

jppope wrote: post #55

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Well, in truth they most likely have something like a decade or so to adjust which is both not a lot and enough for such organizations to adjust.

Sure some manufacturers will go bust and collapse, but other will adapt, and new ones will be created.

I'm quite puzzled by Tesla's valuation, such a valuation is betting on it becoming a huge actor in the post IC automobile industry which is not a given.

I'm also skeptical about the "Iphone moment", functionally the Iphone was a huge step forward (basically having a small computer in your pocket vs having something just doing phone calls, SMSes and snake), but a Tesla, well, right now, it's still a car which does more or less the same thing as any other car (just slightly better in some aspect, slightly worst in others).

It's also not the same market, the Iphone appeared in the booming market of mobile phones which was seeing exponential growth at the time. And also, the gain in functionality and convenience was enough to transform the market from consumers willing to pay at most ~100$ for a flip phone to consumers willing to pay 1000$ for a smartphone with all that entails in term margins and profitability.

The car market by contrast, is not seeing such a growth, and it's unlikely consumers will be willing to spend that much more for their car.

There are potential market shift possible which could be caused by things like reliable autonomous vehicles, tighter regulations forbidding IC vehicles in some cities, cheaper cars (as EV are mechanically simpler, it's a possibility), but these are somewhat elusive.

Tesla valuation is at the very least a huge bet.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#290

Post by auiya » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

Cshelton wrote: post #280

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I'm on my second Tesla. Model S (2016 facelift) and now a 2019 Model 3. Love them. The Model 3 interior is amazing. So simple and elegant. But that is a personal taste. The only thing I've really noticed on the Model 3 is the road noise. I've owned a BMW before, and it is a bit louder in the Model 3. Some of it is due to not having an "engine noise" to cover some of the road noise up. But it is not a big issue at all…

The issue is the lack of sound dampening. It happens with any car. You can fix this retroactively with sound dampening products in any car that you feel is excessively loud inside. Some cars are worse than others. Model 3 probably just cheaps out with their use of interior dampening foam.