Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#101

Post by aerovistae » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

woofcat wrote: post #64

kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream.

These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla.

Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Guess what never happened.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#102

Post by dangus » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

Technology sharing is very important to the modern car industry. Cars are incredibly complicated and if you follow news in the industry, in many cases brands will make technology sharing agreements so that they aren’t duplicating efforts.

That’s where Tesla is well-positioned for the future compared to Ford and GM. They have a whole platform and a battery manufacturing facility where other car brands may become Tesla customers in the future. Disregarding things like build quality or fit and finish, my understanding is that Tesla’s battery platform and powertrain is the industry leader.

If investors think that gas cars will essentially be irrelevant 20 years, I could see why Tesla is so valuable.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#103

Post by bdamm » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options.

A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#104

Post by cs702 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:51 PM UTC

I have an inkling that Tesla has now gained long-term credibility, and we're on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption by a mass of non-early adopters -- people who will evaluate buying a Tesla the same way they would evaluate any other brand, based on boring criteria like long-term quality, day-to-day reliability, service convenience, overall reputation, interior features, exterior design, and resale value. The stock market appears to be pricing this scenario.

Conversely, the worst-case scenario for Tesla as a business, at this juncture, may be that it finds itself unable to remain financially sustainable over time... and ends up getting acquired by another car marker salivating over the prospects of getting its hands on the company's technology and infrastructure.

PS. I write this as someone who has purchased and owned multiple luxury European vehicles (mainly BMW and Mercedes) for the past 20+ years; for the first time, I'm seriously considering switching over to a Tesla when I replace my current vehicle.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#105

Post by SmellyGeekBoy » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:51 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price

iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time).

"Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotcakes. In the case of Flash and MMS, the whole mobile internet changed to suit the iPhone. In the case of apps, Steve Jobs finally relented, leading to the single biggest software marketplace in the world.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#106

Post by chasd00 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:51 PM UTC

samsonradu wrote: post #45

Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.

that's a good point. At the moment, it's kind of hard for a tech stock symbol to not do great.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#107

Post by Lavery » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #75

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

A company with real time telemetry from all cars all the time ought to blow a traditional automaker out of the water with reliability. They can do things like measure vibration of a particular circuit board across the fleet, compare that to the design specs, and be able to predict failure probability a long time ahead of real failures. In turn, they can then revise designs to avoid a failure mode that hasn't even occ…

You seem to be suggesting there's a media bias here. I think probably an honest answer to your question is "Tesla has all of these advantages in data gathering, but is not operationally equipped to use them."

Changes to circuit board vibration, to pick one of your examples, relies on tight control of manufacturing as a process. Model 3s had such basic issues as leaks in door seals--does it seem like they have tight control of manufacturing?

Manufacturing prowess aside, this forum has a pretty big collective eye roll at management and consultants and business 101 topics generally, but when you talk about things like "getting photos from a failed part direct to an engineer" you need to be asking whether those departments are set up to communicate with one another.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#108

Post by logicIsTruth » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

kemitche wrote: post #39

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling.

Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#109

Post by Shivetya » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

TM3 owner, August 2018 delivery date.

I have had no issues for which I have had to take my car to Tesla other than when I had them do a tire rotation as my first service.

I have no annoying rattles or squeaks though road noise tends to be Honda levels (louder) than I have experienced in other cars (Murano or even 17 Chevrolet Volt).

Not to say it is perfect, there are some issues when you look below the surface that shows they were still getting up to speed making mass production cars. I have a few pieces where I just scratch my head, they do what they are supposed to but are not as elegant.

The initial advantage one sees is they are electric. that is a given. the real long term advantage is OTA and Tesla's repeatedly adding features to cars they sold years ago. This is the real game changer in the industry. Need improvements to voice commands or even navigation, previously you bought a newer model.

The interior can be off putting but why? Do you need layers of dead animals to feel luxury? Luxury to me is driving something I just get in and it goes. Luxury is simplicity in design. Compared to my previous Z4 the interior is just fine, the only change for me would be to change the piano black surfacing of some pieces to something else.

Lack of buttons is awesome because in makes you realize how little you ever used the vast majority of them. On that note, my Volt had fourteen separate buttons on the steering wheel, forty plus buttons over all once you rolled in the center stack and dash. Want to try this at home, put a yellow sticker on each button then remove if you use it. Might take weeks in not months.

I am really looking forward to EVs from everyone else but one thing matters most. If you want 50k or more from me it damn well best have three hundred miles EPA range.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#110

Post by philipcristiano » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Depending on the version of the iPhone, they had disadvantages such as not being able to send MMS.

https://www.imore.com/1st-generation-iphone-owners-mms