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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#221
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you have time to try to use the remote app to turn the internal heat way up for a while to loosen the ice on the glass?

I did start the car before hand - it sometimes helps. Depends on how severe the freezing is. The sideview mirrors are still an issue though

you can probably set them to stay open all the time, a luxury vehicle would have the same issue btw.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold market cap constant. Borrow $1 trillion. Burn the cash. Is the company now more or less valuable? By your formula, how has the enterprise value changed?

> Is the company now more or less valuable? More. Normally burning a trillion dollars would have taken about a trillion off the market cap, so if it held steady that means a trillion dollar gain somewhere else.

"There's a pony here somewhere!"

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#223
post #124

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> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.) Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I certainly didn't stand in line. The iPhone seemed primitive and lacking to me at the time. And I wasn't alone in spending lots of money on alternative phones.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#224
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

> The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet If you look at actual vehicle sales, I'd say this quote is optimistic at best. Tesla is still very much fighting an uphill battle in terms of market share.

Optimistic? In the US, Tesla is selling an order of magnitude more cars per month than value EV's like the Leaf and two orders of magnitude more than "Tesla killers" like the iPace or eTron.

https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#225

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I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

> multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles When I bought my Tesla in mid-2018 the alternatives were the Bolt and the Leaf. Both had significantly worse range--I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute for the next year, so range was important. Both were uncomfortably small for me. Neither matched Tesla's driver assist features for my almost entirely highway commute. Neither had fast-charging optio…

> I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute ... Tesla had two superchargers.

Oof. The last thing I'd want to add to an already horrible commute is a supercharger stop, or more.

> the falcon doors are actually super convenient (as long as they don't break)

Kinda a pain in the ass in a garage.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Hold market cap constant. Borrow $1 trillion. Burn the cash. Is the company now more or less valuable? By your formula, how has the enterprise value changed?

Less valuable. What you're missing is that the reason debt is counted is because it is used to buy up assets. In this case, if the cash is entirely burned, it means the value of equity dropped to zero because debt typically has collateral. So the trillion dollars you borrowed would need to be paid back by selling the rest of the company's assets. So in reality, if let's say this trillion dollar debt was super senior and first claimant to assets. It'd drop to the previous market value of the company and the rest of the company's capital structure drops to zero.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#227
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

VW group is going very heavily for mainstream EVs, seriously ramping up production, and the models don't look like the toy concept EVs of yore either.

Maybe Audi and BMW have to think about what it means to make a competitive EV since their price-points are similar to Tesla's, but VW proper will be pushing EVs at the ~$30k MSRP range. They don't need to be more advanced than a Tesla at that price because there is no significant market of people cross-shopping $50k Teslas and $30k VWs. What these manufacturer's need to do is release electric cars with reasonable ranges, near existing price-points, that look and feel "German Car".

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - $300 billion in assets, plus $300 billion in debts means the company is worth: a) $600 billion b) $300 billion c) $0 If you choose anything other than c, I'd love to sell you some businesses.

(B). The company is worth $300 billion to the bondholders, and $0 to shareholders, giving a total value of $300 billion. And that's assuming the company is being liquidated. Most companies with viable businesses are worth a lot more than their assets because the big part of the valuation is assumed future earnings.

> The company is worth $300 billion to the bondholders, and $0 to shareholders, giving a total value of $300 billion.

But if it was cash and debts instead of assets and debts, the company wouldn't be worth $300 billion to bondholders?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you borrow $300 billion you still have $300 billion in assets. Unless something unexpected changes, Ford won't be able to realize that Enterprise value. The number of car companies will shrink, not grow, evs are just the wave over the horizon that will really hurt them. Tesla actually has a chance to drastically grow their sales.

Right - $300 billion in assets, plus $300 billion in debts means the company is worth: a) $600 billion b) $300 billion c) $0 If you choose anything other than c, I'd love to sell you some businesses.

You don't add up assets and debt. You add up equity and debt and make it match up to assets.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#230
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.) Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I think this is hindsight talking. I remember thinking (and hearing): 'Way too expensive' 'I want a tactile keyboard' 'Nice, but I don't need one' and so on.

I still want a slide out keyboard like my Nokia N900 had... and if you don't think $1000 is overpriced for an I-Phone, you probably haven't tried a $300 phone that has very similar capabilities...
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