Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#191

Post by igrekel » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I'd say the car's build feels much better than the other similarly priced EVs or better than a Camry. It's probably under what you would find for similarly prices gas car. I don't see entry level Tesla's as luxury cars per se, but the driving experience is definitely luxury.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#192

Post by c2h5oh » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

You are right about infrastructure, but I'm not convinced it's going to be a deal breaker for many people living in condos.

Even a level 1 charger (1.4kW) can add >50 miles worth of charge overnight (12h) and people living in condos tend to have a shorter commute.

And it's going to get better - for example Ontario mandates 20% parking spaces have charger installed and remaining 80% be ready to have one installed since 2018. IIRC the requirement is 200A per parking spot.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#193

Post by colordrops » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Some startup is going to create a condo/apartment charging network by sharing profits with landlords.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#194

Post by qaq » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:29 PM UTC

MBCook wrote: post #74

qaq wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are ramping up rapidly?

It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.

To me ramp up is more a function of org. grows than specifically new model.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#195

Post by 8note » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:29 PM UTC

lithos wrote: post #179

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

The iPhone hit in a market where competitors have mutually agreed to hide away from regulator attention as long as possible. That is most certainly not the state of the car industry. And you can see how "old industry" will play with old wet cell batteries and newer batteries in data center spaces (newer batteries are considerably safer in reality with each cell monitored, with the battery wall automatically removing…

haven't we seen the auto industry hiding from environmental regulations like Volkswagen and emissions standards?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#196

Post by steve76 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:30 PM UTC

jppope wrote: post #55

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Toyota does not have a viable business model?

What ???

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#197

Post by _ea1k » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:30 PM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #95

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on y…

Honestly, price to sales alone is a joke of a metric for a growing business. Tesla revenue will likely double within the next 24 months (with quarterly trends clearly showing that towards the end of the year). That would put them at 1.9 P/S at that point with more products on the way.

P/S only works well when the situation is relatively static.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#198

Post by CrazyStat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

Model X owner for 1.5 years.

I had one issue soon after delivery, the passenger-side mirror didn't adjust properly when it had been sitting out in the sun. Tesla sent a guy to my house to replace it under warranty. Took him about an hour and no cost to me.

Last year I thought I had a serious issue that turned out to just be a (very) poorly documented software limitation that I was unlucky enough to run into. The private street my building was on was on a navigation blacklist for some reason, which caused issues when navigating to or from that street. The service center staff knew this blacklist existed but had never heard of it actually affecting anyone.

Anyway, I started setting destination to the corner before I turned onto that street, and not starting navigation when I was leaving work until after I turned off the street, and everything was fine. Mildly annoying but I was relieved that it wasn't actually an issue with the car.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#199

Post by auiya » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:33 PM UTC

kemitche wrote: post #39

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

> The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet

If you look at actual vehicle sales, I'd say this quote is optimistic at best. Tesla is still very much fighting an uphill battle in terms of market share.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#200

Post by martythemaniak » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:34 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #67

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

It's an issue with all frame less car doors. Last year I read some car blogs and many people apply a silicone layer that makes freezing much harder. Between that and pre warming the car, I haven't had freezing issues. Also, if the door handles freeze up, a small tap with the palm of your hand does the trick.

The one I got is "gummi pflege"