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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#381

Post by greglindahl »

npo9 wrote: post #370
greglindahl wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anyone is saying that we've already done enough and the prognosis is good. Also, you appear to be criticizing the people who are doing useful things, without offering any alternative. Bleak indeed.

I’m not criticizing people working on the problem. I’m criticizing the viewpoint that we are right around the bend and the fight is almost over. This is an unrealistic viewpoint. We aren’t right around the bend. There is no indication that governments will stop subsidizing oil. Personal transportation might be electrified, but it’ll take decades and meanwhile other pollution sources would have grown to eat out the pr…

I don't think anyone has the view that you're criticizing.

Sorry to repeat myself.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#382

Post by perl4ever »

Hyperborian wrote: post #301
irrational wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

Because the pickup truck form factor is the most efficient and inexpensive one there is. No really, hear me out! I see this asked all the time, but you're actually asking the wrong question. I mean, think about it, what's the most minimal, lightest, cheapest form a motor vehicle could possibly take? It would have wheels, of course, some sort of frame to attach everything to, somewhere to put the engine, and somewhere…

I think you're implicitly talking about a classic style 2-door pickup truck, but most consumer trucks these days seem to have four doors.

Small two door pickup trucks are even more extinct, at least in the US. I remember seeing a new Mazda pickup truck in the showroom, probably a B-series circa 1995, and it was tiny, had steel wheels, a relatively long bed, and probably a manual transmission. Price was maybe half what trucks today cost, adjusted for inflation. It's been a long time since there was a market for those.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#383

Post by perl4ever »

FooHentai wrote: post #379
elihu wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like Crossover is just a name for "I can't tell if that's a bulky sedan, a minivan with slightly bigger tires, a small SUV, or a short station wagon." I think statistics that classify them as SUVs are a little misleading because the distinctions are blurring.

It's a platform difference. The starting point for a crossover is a car chassis, whereas SUVs are derived from a truck.

The word crossover implies a unibody car-like vehicle, but people call things SUVs whether or not they are car-based.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#384

Post by perl4ever »

nradov wrote: post #76
eloff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

The notion of crude oil becoming a stranded asset seems a little silly. It will be many decades before the transportation infrastructure transitions off fossil fuels. And even then there will be demand for oil as a feed stock for chemical manufacturing (plastics, fertilizers, etc). (I'm not claiming that this is a good thing, it's just the economic reality.)

I don't understand why people say oil is useful for plastics and such as though that was fundamentally different from its use as fuel. In either case, the reason we use it is because it is a pre-existing store of energy. If you have an energy source, then you can make oil, plastics, and whatever else you want. I have, or had, a mug from a former employer that was made out of plant-based plastic. It appeared no different from any other.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#385

Post by cheez »

mcbutterbunz wrote: post #366
galago wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to own an old Ford Ranger, and in Winter I would have it loaded with bags of sand in the bed to improve traction on ice. I could have just as easily been hauling batteries everywhere.

When I was 17, I crashed and totaled my '77 Ford pickup because I slid out on wet pavement. Everyone said I needed sand bags but I loved being able to peel out so easily. Live and learn.

Love fishtailing the Camaro.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#386

Post by perl4ever »

Apocryphon wrote: post #222
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

It's insane that SUVs are back again, after their original wave during the Bush years.

SUVs were a thing during the Reagan years. Although they were mostly 2 doors and based on small pickups with body on frame construction and very little power by today's standards.

In 1987 I remember you could get a 4Runner, a Pathfinder, a Cherokee, a Blazer, or a Bronco.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#387

Post by perl4ever »

mxschumacher wrote: post #171
jliptzin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels. Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either. Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

The mix of power sources varies by state. In NY, Canadian hydro provides a lot of the electricity and coal virtually none.

When people say "haw haw, your electric car runs on coal", that might be true in West Virginia, but how many people have electric cars there anyway?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#388

Post by perl4ever »

WorldMaker wrote: post #327
ryanmercer wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>EVs have been in existance for almost a decade and now EVs have been in existence for nearly as long as ICE vehicles have. The 1867 World Exposition had an electric cycle and you had electric taxis in London in 1897 [1] and by 1912 there were 33,842 electric cars registered in the United States [2]. In the 50's you had Deutsche Post of the GDR using electric delivery vans (I believe an electric vehicle was being use…

> - They're far more expensive than ICE vehicles as there aren't a whole lot of used EVs but there are tons of used ICE vehicles at vary price levels. For now. That's a combination of efficiencies of scale problems. VW Group says that they'll hit the efficiency of scale where EVs are cheaper across the board for every make and model to produce than ICE vehicles sometime between now and 2023 (that's less than four yea…

"You think it would be hard to schedule a 30-45 minute meal somewhere once every two weeks?"

I think there is an issue that may not be obvious with the charging time.

Let's say for the sake of argument, sure, people can tolerate taking ten times the amount of time to charge as filling a gas tank.

But what that means on a large scale, if everyone switches to electric, is that we need ten times the number of charging stations as gas station pumps in order to have the same number of locations open per person.

Of course, you say, people mostly charge electric cars at home. Sure, but if they do it 90% of the time, we still need just as many public chargers as there are gas stations now. On top of a charger for (almost) every home.

Without much faster charging or much higher capacity batteries, it seems to me like this is a basic problem with switching everything to electric that I haven't heard about from others.

Maybe there's something obvious I'm missing, but I never see people address this or identify the incredible infrastructure requirements as a problem. People describe occasional waits for access to a charger and don't extrapolate.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#389

Post by dghughes »

Animats wrote: post #185
ben010783 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series! American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so.

If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for.

I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the technology advances but people need to be realistic.

It's like the customer service industry if all the comments are compliments how do you know what is wrong?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#390

Post by danans »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #304
fspeech wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument is incorrect as pointed out by dropin685 earlier. Additional weight by itself does not waste energy. It does require more power to accelerate. The extra power is turned into higher kinetic energy for the same cruising speed. However kinetic energy is not waste. It can be recovered during deacceleration. It's the lack of regeneration that causes ICE powered vehicles to waste energy, which doesn't apply t…

I am obviously failing to communicate as this was meant to be about the effects of weight and traction, and how batteries are not unique for adding weight to a vehicle (other than a lower center of gravity, but that has nothing to do with my original point). While regenerative braking is most common in electric vehicles, this also is not unique to electric vehicles. A hybrid vehicle can just as easily benefit from th…

> A hybrid vehicle can just as easily benefit from this, such as the Prius.

If you momentarily ignore the fact that its ultimate energy source is gasoline and focus only on the regen system a hybrid is an electric vehicle, just one that (sadly) lacks a plug.

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