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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#361

Post by nitwit005 »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #295
irrational wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

I expect part of the reason is utility vs cost of ownership. You can commute in a pickup but you can't move an apartment in a Prius (well not in one trip :-). If you look at the marginal cost of a second vehicle[1] it is quite high. Thus you may be limited to owning exactly one vehicle, and that vehicle is going to consume a chunk of your income (insurance/gas/maintenance). In that scenario the most financially prude…

My experience is that I never need a truck, because my friends that own one are strangely desperate for excuses to make use of them. I can just ask one of them to help me out.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#362

Post by elihu »

FooHentai wrote: post #284
coliveira wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be true, but total volume of SUV sales in the US is giant. In fact, SUVs are now the standard car model, with sedans being left behind. This is the result of a strong push from auto companies in terms of advertisement and diversification of SUV offers.

Crossovers apparently make up the bulk of it (40%), but yeah those plus pickups and SUVs combined eclipse small, medium, large, and luxury cars combined. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-...

It seems like Crossover is just a name for "I can't tell if that's a bulky sedan, a minivan with slightly bigger tires, a small SUV, or a short station wagon." I think statistics that classify them as SUVs are a little misleading because the distinctions are blurring.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#363

Post by UncleOxidant »

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

We need a $3/gallon gas tax in the US. And/or completely stop subsidizing oil production.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#364

Post by steve19 »

war1025 wrote: post #343
mojomark wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This!!! I've told everyone who'd listen for years that an electric motor is the better option for a pickup trucks due to the more appropriate matching of the torque curve to the hauling load demands. When my beloved '00 Ram 1500 died about 5 years ago I decided to hold out for an electric truck that I assumed would be coming to market. Looks like I may finally get my chance shortly. I honestly don't know if the cumul…

Trains are electric motors powered by diesel generators. Seems like it should be an easy sell for people that whatever trains do is an effective way to handle heavy loads.

Submarines too!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine#Diesel-electric

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#365

Post by narrator »

Cshelton wrote: post #162
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

I followed peak oil back in the day. I think I agree with the idea that the oil cartels know there are plenty of oil deposits and they hold them off the market to support prices and otherwise pretend they don't exist till they need them.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#366

Post by mcbutterbunz »

galago wrote: post #354
Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

I used to own an old Ford Ranger, and in Winter I would have it loaded with bags of sand in the bed to improve traction on ice. I could have just as easily been hauling batteries everywhere.

When I was 17, I crashed and totaled my '77 Ford pickup because I slid out on wet pavement. Everyone said I needed sand bags but I loved being able to peel out so easily. Live and learn.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#367

Post by elihu »

wonderwonder wrote: post #279
Cshelton wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

I think this overlooks several key facts. 1. Poor countries cannot afford the EV infrastructure. As Africa gains in wealth it is absolutely going to rely on gasoline engines, the government stability is not there to allow for a wide spread EV charging infrastructure. Plus EV is far more expensive putting it out of reach for emerging economies. 2. You are overlooking the power of existing industry. Natural gas has mas…

I think it's likely that basic electric vehicles will soon be cheaper than basic gas vehicles. Right now, batteries are the biggest part of the cost (if you want long range), but they're getting cheaper all the time. If you're optimizing for low cost and mass production, you don't need rare-earth permanent magnets in the motor or battery chemistries that require cobalt.

Power grids may be a problem, but it's possible to solve in a decentralized fashion by installing solar panels and/or wind generators near the place where the car is being used. Right now, solar is more available to wealthy people, but there again costs are coming down and in many cases solar is cheaper than buying power from a utility.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#368

Post by AnthonyMouse »

onepointsixC wrote: post #227
rossdavidh wrote: post #97

So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from the world's energy mix. As big as coal was, it takes a while to go away completely, but the trend does not seem to be slowing down. By some estimates, there are a lot of cases now where it is more expensive to keep running an existing coal-fired power plant, t…

It's not crude oil but natural gas which has been replacing coal in the US. Natural Gas is much better, and given that there is no cost effective practical grid level storage solution, it is likely to stick around in any region which see's high levels of solar and wind power generation.

The thing is, coal has been used for baseload, which is horrible. Coal produces around twice as much carbon per unit heat as natural gas, and baseload generation runs 24/7.

Use nuclear for baseload and solar for daytime demand and even without any storage technology, you limit the need for generation from fossil fuels to the high demand period in the evening after the sun goes down. Then add in demand-based pricing to load shift anything that can be (like charging electric vehicles) into the solar generation period.

Going from burning coal 24/7 to a couple hours of burning natural gas in the evening is a huge reduction in carbon emissions.

At that point it's a question of economics. Alternatives exist -- synthetic fuels produced in the daytime with energy from solar generation and then burned at night, biofuels, etc. They're not used because they're more expensive; impose a carbon tax and maybe they're not.

And that's assuming no one comes up with anything creative. Here's an idea -- run a nuclear reactor 24/7 equipped with thermal storage. Then you can store the heat from the reactor during the day when you can get cheap electricity from solar, then use the stored heat to satisfy the few hours of peak demand in the evening after the sun goes down, then generate electricity directly from the reactor for the rest of the night until the sun comes up.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#369

Post by caf »

Hyperborian wrote: post #301
irrational wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

Because the pickup truck form factor is the most efficient and inexpensive one there is. No really, hear me out! I see this asked all the time, but you're actually asking the wrong question. I mean, think about it, what's the most minimal, lightest, cheapest form a motor vehicle could possibly take? It would have wheels, of course, some sort of frame to attach everything to, somewhere to put the engine, and somewhere…

I mean, think about it, what's the most minimal, lightest, cheapest form a motor vehicle could possibly take? It would have wheels, of course, some sort of frame to attach everything to, somewhere to put the engine, and somewhere to put the driver. That's it!

You appear to be describing a motorbike.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#370

Post by npo9 »

greglindahl wrote: post #349
npo9 wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy. I didn’t say the problem cannot be solved. I said the problem is continuing, and current data indicates it will continue to be a problem. You may call my opinion pessimistic. I think I’m being realistic, and our outlook is just this bleak. The global effort to fight climate change is falling significantly short to the task.

I don't think anyone is saying that we've already done enough and the prognosis is good. Also, you appear to be criticizing the people who are doing useful things, without offering any alternative. Bleak indeed.

I’m not criticizing people working on the problem. I’m criticizing the viewpoint that we are right around the bend and the fight is almost over. This is an unrealistic viewpoint.

We aren’t right around the bend. There is no indication that governments will stop subsidizing oil. Personal transportation might be electrified, but it’ll take decades and meanwhile other pollution sources would have grown to eat out the progress gained.

It’s unknown how far we can reasonably advance solar and battery technologies. It’s likely that raising global wealth and raising global population will result in raising global consumption (and pollution). Electric airplanes are decades (centuries?) away from taking over significant portions of air traffic.

This is a hard problem. You’re patting yourself on the back and pretending that we’re almost done.

We don’t have the political or economic structures to solve this problem. We don’t have good enough science or engineering to compete against fossil fuels. We don’t have enough time to build either.

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