Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#311

Post by npo9 » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:02 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #270

npo9 wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The is delusional optimism. All signs point to increasing amounts of pollution. There is no existing plan that will fix the solution that is being executed. All environmental or alternative efforts being pursued are falling short. There is no indication ‘green’ energy will be a significant portion of the world energy supply. There is no indication we are removing our dependency on oil. We are continuing to consume co…

Every problem exists until it doesn't. Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy. It's not a question of whether the human race can solve this problem, it's a question of whether we will solve it. There are no fundamental physical or technological limitations that prevent us from running the world on 100% clean energy, it's just a matter of overcoming our species' colle…

> Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy.

I didn’t say the problem cannot be solved. I said the problem is continuing, and current data indicates it will continue to be a problem.

You may call my opinion pessimistic. I think I’m being realistic, and our outlook is just this bleak. The global effort to fight climate change is falling significantly short to the task.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#312

Post by appleiigs » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:04 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #261

appleiigs wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As per this article[0], "The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela." Canada, an oil rich country, imports oil from Saudi Arabia... how does that make sense. It would be better for Canada and the environment if a pipe is built. First, Canadian environmental standards vs. Saudi, Africa, Venezuela. Second, less tankers burning diesel and oil tanker accidents. Thi…

You posted an extremely out of date article. This is actually incorrect since the reversal of Line 9, 90% of Ontario's oil consumption comes from Alberta. 44% of Quebec's comes from Alberta, with the remainder being other North American sources from the U.S. Here's my source: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/13/news/guess-where... Suncor's refinery in Quebec now processes 25k barrels of Alberta bitumen a day.…

I replied to another comment of yours. It's not out-dated info.

And from another HN commenter: "This seems more like a heuristically constructed perception of reality, presented as if it is fact."

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#313

Post by WorldMaker » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:07 PM UTC

0xffff2 wrote: post #241

greglindahl wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you extrapolate their upward line forward Extrapolations are a bad idea for "tipping point" kinds of curves. Electric vehicles are steadily improving, and as they become better in niches (like high performance cars) the curve can change to be nothing like the extrapolation.

Look at it a different way. How many years is the average car on the road? Even if we banned the sale of new ICE vehicles today, it would still take well over a decade for them to filter out of operation.

But there are very real, very possible existential crises that could massively impact the ICE fleet and filter out existing vehicles faster the usual replacement rate. To obvious examples: the cost of gas rises fast enough, and/or entire gas chains go out of business making stations hard to find.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#314

Post by McWobbleston » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:08 PM UTC

robocat wrote: post #310

McWobbleston wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It typically is unless you're comparing it to an efficient hybrid vehicle in certain areas. I did some napkin math based on a claim that a 75kWh battery takes 13 kg tons* C02 to produce, and found in my area a Tesla Model 3 getting ~58mpg equivalent to charge has a similar CO2 output as a 44mpg vehicle over 200k miles I'd say the Tesla still wins since you can likely recycle that 75kWh pack for energy storage afterwa…

> I did some napkin math based on a claim that a 75kWh battery takes 13kg C02 to produce That just sounds completely unbelievable to me. "That same battery if Elon is the believed will cost Tesla $100 per kWh by the end of 2018" so let's underestimate that it costs $7500 to the consumer. And let's say a barrel of crude costs $60, 13kg of CO2 is $2.50. I think that is 0.0325% embedded energy - I can't see how that cou…

You're right, I meant to say 13,000kg.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#315

Post by alex-wallish » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

I disagree. If we get to a point where alternative energy sources are scalable and cheaper to produce than oil, then there will be a very limited market for the oil and no profit to be made.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#316

Post by cmrdporcupine » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:13 PM UTC

appleiigs wrote: post #305

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually incorrect. Bitumen from Alberta shipped through Line 9 is now refined in Ontario and Quebec and is now the majority of oil consumption in central Canada. The poster above posted an out of date article and then drew incorrect conclusions from obsolete information.

No, it's not out-dated dude. In a different post from you, you're quoting the National Observer which I've never heard of. In Wikipedia's entry it says this: "According to an article by Vivian Krause in the Financial Post, the National Observer has received funding from The Tides Foundation of San Francisco, and Linda Solomon Wood is the sister of a former chairman of the Tides Foundation. Terence Corcoran in the Nat…

Come. On. Read what you just posted. It does not disagree with the article I posted. 108.8 million tonnes of crude vs 29.1 tonnes imported means only 25% of _all of Canadian_ oil is imported, and of that 65% of it is from the U.S., not Saudi.

By your own quoted numbers only 5% of Canadian crude comes from Saudi Arabia. (20% of 29.1 = 5.82 million barrels, 5.82 million barrels out of 108 million barrels is 5.3%)

The CBC article was 2012. Before Line 9 reversal. You may not want it to be true, but it is. And you actually just confirmed it.

And in fact most of that Saudi oil is going to eastern provinces, not central Canada:

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2019/03-03m...

Breaks down oil imports by source and province and -- this is the NEB, not a 'left wing' source -- its first sentence is: "Canada imports around one barrel of crude oil for every seven and a half barrels it produces."

Note that the rest of the page only breaks down imports and doesn't show domestic sources, which as I pointed out is 75% of consumed oil _nationally_ and 90% of Ontario's.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#317

Post by cmrdporcupine » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:17 PM UTC

appleiigs wrote: post #312

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You posted an extremely out of date article. This is actually incorrect since the reversal of Line 9, 90% of Ontario's oil consumption comes from Alberta. 44% of Quebec's comes from Alberta, with the remainder being other North American sources from the U.S. Here's my source: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/13/news/guess-where... Suncor's refinery in Quebec now processes 25k barrels of Alberta bitumen a day.…

I replied to another comment of yours. It's not out-dated info. And from another HN commenter: "This seems more like a heuristically constructed perception of reality, presented as if it is fact."

"Constructed perception of reality" is _exactly_ what's going on in Alberta right now.

Read my reply to your comment. All you did was confirm my numbers.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#318

Post by sean_the_geek » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:20 PM UTC

irrational wrote: post #273

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

To me, it has more do with symbolism than actual utility.

Worryingly I am seeing the same trend in London, UK where I live. At my local train station , which is 20 mins from City, I see the F150, Rams and what not parked. The owner clearly working/taking train into City. They are sparkling clean and occupy parking bay edge to edge.

London where space is constrained, public transport is readily available and rental vans can be arranged on your phone, I fail to understand why City working person would need it except for the messaging impact of owning a macho looking vehicle.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#319

Post by PeterisP » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:25 PM UTC

lightedman wrote: post #142

cesarb wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With ethanol, the carbon which burns to create the CO2 came from atmospheric CO2 in the first place, during the growth of the sugar cane which was used to produce that ethanol. That is, the CO2 emissions from ethanol are not a problem because they are matched by an identical amount of CO2 capture.

"That is, the CO2 emissions from ethanol are not a problem because they are matched by an identical amount of CO2 capture." You're missing every other machine using non-ethanol fuel to operate which is required for harvesting/producing ethanol biofuel. Ethanol's net CO2 output is positive, not negative. That is not good.

That would imply that producing ethanol requires more fuel than it produces, so producing ethanol costs more money (for fuel) than the resulting fuel can be sold for - which is simply not true.

While you might argue that some cases of bioethanol in the first world are essentially just farm subsidies, producing sugarcane ethanol in favorable conditions (e.g. Brazil) definitely is profitable in the financial sense and also in the CO2 sense because it saves most of CO2 emissions compared to the fossil fuels they replace.

Of course, even in ideal conditions any fuel has zero net emissions and can't possibly have a net negative CO2 contribution by itself (that would require carbon sequestration) but every liter of gasoline/diesel that gets replaced by a low-CO2 fuel means a reduction of CO2 emissions.

You shouldn't compare something against a fictional zero, you compare it against realistic alternatives, so CO2 emissions are not only acceptable but actually desirable if they replace much larger CO2 emissions.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#320

Post by cmrdporcupine » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 9:25 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #316

appleiigs wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not out-dated dude. In a different post from you, you're quoting the National Observer which I've never heard of. In Wikipedia's entry it says this: "According to an article by Vivian Krause in the Financial Post, the National Observer has received funding from The Tides Foundation of San Francisco, and Linda Solomon Wood is the sister of a former chairman of the Tides Foundation. Terence Corcoran in the Nat…

Come. On. Read what you just posted. It does not disagree with the article I posted. 108.8 million tonnes of crude vs 29.1 tonnes imported means only 25% of _all of Canadian_ oil is imported, and of that 65% of it is from the U.S., not Saudi. By your own quoted numbers only 5% of Canadian crude comes from Saudi Arabia. (20% of 29.1 = 5.82 million barrels, 5.82 million barrels out of 108 million barrels is 5.3%) The C…

Also here from the NEB: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2019/08-01q...

Look a the pie chart "crude oil supplies to Quebec" and look at how small the "Other" in the pie chart is. There's Kenney & Scheer's "saudi tankers."