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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#271
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never figured out why the cobalt has to come from the Congo. There are cobalt mines in North America that are sitting idle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt,_Ontario

It's cheaper when you don't need to follow labor and environmental regulations.

Bingo, and when it becomes too expensive there, you just do your typical political corruption/bribery dance and get the rules to change here so you can continue to profit from environmental destruction.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#272

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

It's insane that SUVs are back again, after their original wave during the Bush years.

Self-reinforcing arms race to sit up high and see over the top of traffic. If people could be trusted to reliably signal, merge, etc. the perceived need to see 300 feet ahead to predict behavior of immediately adjacent drivers would diminish.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#273

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not much interest in whale oil as a fuel anymore. When people find a replacement, they switch to it. The hope (prayer) is that renewable prices will fall to a tiny fraction of oil exploration/extraction/distribution costs that the idea of using it as a mass fuel is quaint. It's likely to happen, too -- just not clear if it'll happen fast enough.

That's because its use is banned. Until 1972, sperm oil was a very common additive in auto transmissions without an equivalent replacement. After the ban of its use, reliability of transmissions dropped by an order of magnitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_oil#Applications It took banning whaling and putting the sperm whale on the endangered species list and banning the sale of sperm oil to stop its usage. I…

The success of the 1972 ban reflects that fact that by 1972 whale oil had transformed from an irreplaceable source of energy and lighting (as it was in the mid-19th century) into a niche additive with a few specialized applications -- many of which already possessed better alternatives that just needed to be scaled and brought to market. Basically, people were using it just because it was convenient, not because it was irreplaceable.

We're not there with fossil fuels, unfortunately. Before Congress can ban them, we need technological alternatives in place that make the transition about as painful as the whale oil ban was.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#275

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

In the South (especially in Texas, where I lived for a bit) they're considered a symbol of rugged manliness, which is the main reason why they're so popular among city dwellers. They're also nice to go off-road in areas with not good roads.

I've driven a few and they also offer a different perspective when you're driving (you feel "taller"). Also, they might be safer than tiny sedans (although not sure how they compare with the German ones w.r.t safety).

If you live in Suburbs, its also nice to have one for the occasional lugging around of furniture or moving heavy stuff.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#276

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

Key thing about electric car introduction vs other technologies is an electric car is a car and automobiles have a 100 years with of well developed infrastructure already. The only thing that's needed is the charging points. Which is point infrastructure for the most part.

That makes the switchover seamless. Which means it's only production and price limited. Not like the original cars when there was only a few hundred miles of paved roads and no gas stations.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#277
Its important to realise that oil is not just for energy but for the 95% of products, machinery and materials that make modern life possible. Roughly 50% is for other things than energy and without oil most of us would either not live today And live much poorer lives.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#278

One neat solution is to have a variable gas tax which rises and falls in near opposite to the price swings, but also slowly grows over time to account for carbon and pollution costs. This gives businesses and consumers an easy way to plan future costs.

Isn't that pretty much what is happening with fuel taxes in Europe? Even though the price of oil is around half what it was a decade ago, fuel prices are still pretty much the same.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/fuel-pric...

(I wonder if diesel taxes are going to be brought inline with petrol taxes after dieselgate has shown diesel is worse for the environment)

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#279

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

I think this overlooks several key facts. 1. Poor countries cannot afford the EV infrastructure. As Africa gains in wealth it is absolutely going to rely on gasoline engines, the government stability is not there to allow for a wide spread EV charging infrastructure. Plus EV is far more expensive putting it out of reach for emerging economies.

2. You are overlooking the power of existing industry. Natural gas has massive lobbying power vs electric and solar and is seen as 'greener' than coal. It is also easier to retrofit existing power plants to natural gas from coal than to build massive solar fields keeping jobs at their current locations.

3. You will have distributed "grids", where many more people are generating their own power, and borrowing from their neighbor when necessary - see the above point. Entrenched industry, lobbyists and industry capture are working hard to prevent this, at least in the US. Laws already exist in many states to prevent this.

Use of combustibles is only increasing: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/natural-gas/gas-consumption-da...

I would love to transition to a green, renewable infrastructure but unfortunately I don't think it is going to happen for a very long time.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#280

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

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