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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#191

Post by alan »

mxschumacher wrote: post #171
jliptzin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels. Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either. Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

I never figured out why the cobalt has to come from the Congo. There are cobalt mines in North America that are sitting idle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt,_Ontario

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#192

Post by PeterisP »

lightedman wrote: post #141
perfunctory wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot more needs to happen to end oil's stranglehold. So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action?

"So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action? " Get a gun, shoot the fuckers. It's that simple. How are all these bright minds on HN incapable of coming up with such a simple solution? The majority of countries supplying the world with oil are despots and should be wiped off the face of the planet.

It's worth noting that currently the largest oil producer in the world is USA.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#193

Post by PeterisP »

jdjdjjsjs wrote: post #6
option_greek wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The developing nations never pass cheaper oil benefit to the end consumers. They just increase taxes to offset the decrease in price (and thats a good thing). So there won't be any increase in consumption due to low prices.

This is also exactly correct. The actual reason is that fossil fuels are highly subsidized in most developing countries, so the only impact this has is in reducing the subsidies paid by the government exchequer.

Developing countries generally can't afford to subsidize fossil fuels. The only developing countries where fossil fuels are highly subsidized are the few countries with substantial domestic oil production e.g. Iran and Venezuela, not most of them.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#194

Post by aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA »

mxschumacher wrote: post #123
yters wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the primary user of oil and gas is industry, not consumers.

I'm not sure the distinction matters, because all industry eventually serves consumers.

The distinction is crucial with respect to regulating pollution standards.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#195

Post by robocat »

Ancalagon wrote: post #187

I feel like there is literally no way for the average person to win this fight. I can't even avoid plastic and oil use in my day-to-day life because I live too far from the only farmers market in town, because its too expensive to live any closer. The only way I can see that I could "win" is by buying a large plot of land and essentially returning to living an 1800s style agricultural lifestyle, but even that would p…

The amount of CO₂ we produce is correlated with our spending (embedded energy), and our spending is usually related to our income.

If you have a good income, you likely produce a lot of CO₂, but you can also afford to spend some time and money on offsetting activities.

For example, buy a plot of uneconomical farmland and plant good CO₂ absorbers, maybe good nursery trees so you can return land to a more native state. There's heaps of ways to do it, but check you are not being greenwashed.

You do need to do some research: building an energy efficient home, or buying a Tesla feels good but might not actually be effective (and could easily be net producer of CO₂ depending on other factors).

When I spend money, I figure 25% is embedded energy (e.g. employees in chain go on overseas holiday). E.g. I guess $8 spent uses a litre of petrochemicals.

Edit: if anyone has good pointers to information about embedded energy per dollar, I am interested. The above comment is mostly from my own thought experiments.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#196

Post by OnlineGladiator »

Animats wrote: post #185
ben010783 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series! American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better.

The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#197

Post by [deleted] »

mxschumacher wrote: post #171
jliptzin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels. Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either. Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

[deleted]

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#198

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

Cshelton wrote: post #162
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

Most of your reasoning hinges on spread of electric cars and electric planes. If that doesn't come to pass, oil will still be in huge demand. EVs have been in existance for almost a decade and now and they're still only 1% of US car sales: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-electric-veh...

If you extrapolate their upward line forward, it'll take an extremely long time before % of EVs becomes greater than 50%.

And as for electric air travel, as far I know it's not even happening yet in the commerial passenger planes and the air travel industry moves even slower than the automative industry.

In 100 years ago, I would agree with you. But, for now, we're stuck with using oil for quite a long time.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#199

Post by donkeyd »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196
Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

That ballast would then make the truck use even more fuel, which wouldn't make much sense.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#200

Post by NeedMoreTea »

fr0sty wrote: post #181
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whaling was still happily going until there was an international ban in the seventies or eighties. Despite hydrocarbons whale oil and other products were still used in a surprising range of things. Even now after the "ban" that catch is pushing up near 10,000 a year.

> Even now after the "ban" that catch is pushing up near 10,000 a year. Not sure this is true. This site[0] puts the total 2018 catch at only 1553. [0] https://iwc.int/total-catches

That's doesn't include the main catch nations who didn't sign up to the IWC, or later left it, just what's reported to the IWC by member nations. Norway never joined, and Iceland left IWC for instance. Canada and Denmark (Faroes) can exceed that amount just between the two of them. Some nations have long and significant history of fraudulent reporting -- most excessively the Russians.
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