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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

171–180 of 489 posts

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#171

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels.

Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either.

Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#172
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was eye opening to me is that, if the GP is to be believed, is that people keep buying F150s? Clearly, not everyone believes in the idea of climate change. (In fact, if that factoid is correct, a plurality of automobile consumers don't? That's a "wow" moment for me.)

Something to keep in mind also is that today's F150 is not the same as "yesterday's" F150. Today's F150 is made out of mostly aluminum - not steel. Today's F150 only comes in 4 and 6 cylinder models. 8 cylinder was dropped, and I think the smaller engines are turbocharged to make up for the difference (what if anything this does for emissions or fuel usage, I am not certain). There are probably more than a few other…

> 8 cylinder was dropped

That's incorrect, you can definitely still spec it with a 5.0L V8. The twin turbo V6 is the range topping engine, however. And it isn't especially fuel efficient unless you never ask it to do anything hard. We have an F150 with the ecoboost 3.5L and it's fantastic when towing our RV, but it gets 10 mpg while doing so.

In the end you can't really get around physics. Heavy pickup, takes a lot of fuel to make it move, even if you try to reduce pumping losses with smaller engines.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#174
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot more needs to happen to end oil's stranglehold. So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action?

You want my honest answer? No fucking clue. I'm focused on cement. I've given up on tech, IT and programming and went into the cement industry to work towards a smaller CO2 footprint in cement production. It's the second largest CO2 producer on the planet behind fossil fuels. I found making apps and backend software to be a waste of time in my own desires. There's a shit ton of science in cement and infrastructure to…

This at least points to an answer, one of maybe three answers I've seen with actual credibility.

(The others are "pray that a geoengineering plan works without disaster" and "try to mitigate a whole bunch of warming while emissions gradually stabilize". Not exactly inspiring.)

Visions of fixing global warming with high gasoline prices and renewable electricity subsidies are ludicrous. Focus on reducing personal emissions is almost always a distraction (perhaps excluding air travel and diet). As soon as you dive into numbers, it becomes obvious that even the most optimistic gains from those things can't come close to solving the problem. There's just too much CO2 output from production (concrete, plastics, farming, etc.), non-car engines (cargo ships, planes, heavy machinery, etc.), and hard-to-replace, high-emissions power (e.g. coal in outlying China). And power improvements are often less good than they appear; it's common to report fossil fuel reductions without accounting for any offsetting harms like sulfur hexafluoride leaks from wind turbines, or CO2 emissions from solar panel manufacture and disposal.

That doesn't mean things are hopeless, or oil is blameless, or America should ignore the problem because China, or any of the other cop-outs. But I think you're exactly right: existing producers aren't going to roll over and quit, and meaningful state action will require promoting deep, pervasive changes, not just subsidizing rooftop solar.

We need lobbying and outreach and communication and legislation; we also need a million practical things to be made better, or used better, or supplanted. All I can see to do is pick a problem that suits me and dive in.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#175
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was eye opening to me is that, if the GP is to be believed, is that people keep buying F150s? Clearly, not everyone believes in the idea of climate change. (In fact, if that factoid is correct, a plurality of automobile consumers don't? That's a "wow" moment for me.)

Something to keep in mind also is that today's F150 is not the same as "yesterday's" F150. Today's F150 is made out of mostly aluminum - not steel. Today's F150 only comes in 4 and 6 cylinder models. 8 cylinder was dropped, and I think the smaller engines are turbocharged to make up for the difference (what if anything this does for emissions or fuel usage, I am not certain). There are probably more than a few other…

There is no 4 cylinder F-150, but there are 2 V6 engines of various size, and the 5.0L V8 for the purists. The hybrid and electric versions of the F-150 are also coming within 2 years, which is exciting because if Ford pulls it off, then there'll be a lot of people who will see electric vehicles in a new light.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#176
post #113
post #89

Remember when everyone was talking about peak oil? https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ev...

Yes, and as the article says, we've past that point in the mid 2000's, which is why companies have resorted to fracking.

If more oil is being found and extracted than before, then we haven't reached peak oil. Peak oil never referred to one extraction method.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#178

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!

American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#179
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The house is burning! The house is burning!" A child laughs. Parents take the child out of the house quickly in fear. After a moment a plane crashes into the house, obliterating it. While yes, the child was full of shit. It still led to something marginally good. Maybe the parents should have left him in the house because he's a little shit. That might make the situation better. But that's an ethics question I don't…

The problem with this is when a group cries wolf, are the people going to continue to listen? Eventually, Machiavellian tactics turn your credibility to mud. You end up in a place where folks don't believe anything a group says. Then you're stuck shaking your fist at "the stupid general" public when your organization's tactics are largely to blame. This is where both sides of the environmental discussion have ended u…

Exactly. We've hit "the point of no return" in regards to climate change at least twice in the past 10 years and depending on who you ask, we're projected to hit another "point of no return" in 2024 if we don't change our ways. Look up the early climate change movements and there have been people predicting the imminent death of the earth for the last 70 years.

So, yeah, I don't blame people when they eat their plastic wrapped burger in their F150 while giving up any efforts to "save the world".

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#180

"I hope that humanity will be able to free itself from its addiction of fossil fuels (arguably it is the primary reason for violent conflict in the last 30 years and the driving force behind climate change), but my bet is that things will get worse for a lot longer before we even reach the inflection point of “peak oil”. Change must happen. Change will happen. I don’t think the oil and gas industry is anywhere near t…

What was eye opening to me is that, if the GP is to be believed, is that people keep buying F150s? Clearly, not everyone believes in the idea of climate change. (In fact, if that factoid is correct, a plurality of automobile consumers don't? That's a "wow" moment for me.)

Emissions standards nerfed most sedans into distinctionless conveyance aplliances. Trucks have a looser standard, and are popular as a result of more power and easy customization. Also possibly (on average) the best built fullsize truck made for the last 100 years. Brand loyalty has been earned with the f series. I say that as a person who is not particularlly fond of fords.
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