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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#121

Post by isoskeles »

etjossem wrote: post #71
dralley wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"how can we be headed for a recession when my janitor just bought a second house?"

Absolutely this. A bubble doesn't look like one until it pops, so you can't just say "everyone's buying $2000 spin bikes, everything must be fine." For starters, Peloton does a majority of its sales through Affirm and other consumer financing instruments, and books them as revenue. It's more accurate to say "everyone is buying $2000 spin bikes using 30% APR installment loans." In the risks section, Peloton says that…

When is Affirm going public? I want to invest in that.

Re: Peloton S-1

#122

Post by asmithmd1 »

I was surprised to see how low the gross margin is on their subscription business, it has only recently broken above 50%. The cost of revenue for their subscription business includes licensing the music in their workouts, and the costs to operate their NYC and London studio.

I was also surprised to see the margins on the bike itself are about the same as on the subscription business. They have room to lower the price of the bikes to get more customers hooked on that sweet, sweet recurring subscription revenue.

Re: Peloton S-1

#123

Post by pbreit »

tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

Do folks who profess not understanding why something is successful ever use such data to improve their outlook?

Re: Peloton S-1

#124

Post by runako »

paxys wrote: post #109
gamblor956 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's really crazy is that the cost of 1 month of a Peloton subscription is less than the cost of 2 spinning classes in a real-world spin studio. If you spin enough, you actually do save money with a Peloton. $40/month + $2000/bike vs $30/class (in LA/NY/SF) results in a breakeven point of roughly 4 months if you spin every weekday, which many spin aficionados do.

> 2 spinning classes in a real-world spin studio Located in the most expensive markets in the country.

(Not a spin-class person.)

I thought that was a high number, and I live in a lower-cost market (Atlanta). Looking at one-off/small chain spinning places that do not have outposts in New York State or California, I found single-class pricing to be in the $20-25 range. Given the cost of living difference between here and NYC, the $30 quoted for LA/NY/SF seems on target.

Re: Peloton S-1

#125

Post by javagram »

ticmasta wrote: post #69
jdm2212 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in the US, trying to ride a bike outdoors in a lot of places is a good way to get yourself killed by a car. I've spent the last 5 years in NYC and SF (which are both very bike friendly). I bike rarely and pretty cautiously, but even so all of my closest calls with getting killed by a car have been on a bike.

>> NYC and SF (which are both very bike friendly). What? You need to visit some more cities. Just because bikes & cars co-exist in a city does not make them bike friendly.

Compared to a lot of cities NYC is doing alright in regard to cycling infrastructure. They’ve put in a lot of lanes and have plans to do more. NYC official statistics claim the number of bike trips has tripled over the last 15 years, so riders seem to be responding.

Obviously there are way more bike-friendly European cities but as far as US cities go NYC doesn’t seem that bad to me (I don’t live there, but have noticed all the new cycle paths when I visit occasionally over the years).

Re: Peloton S-1

#126

Post by KiSM »

paulcole wrote: post #119
SCAQTony wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps a better investment would be to buy a road bike for $2,000. Spend $245 on a trainer and gear. Finally, get the subscription to the classes, and now you have both Peleton classes and a road bike.

The best way to buy a $2k road bike is to pay $1k and buy it from someone who thought it would be a great idea to buy a $2k road bike. Kind of like when my dad bought an elliptical machine and my mom called it the world’s only $2,500 clothes rack.

Absolutely, bicycles depreciate much much faster than cars!

If you are handy doing your own repairs it's also very cost effective since not too many tools are required and compatible parts are cheap, easy to find and easy to install.

My road bike cost $300 AUD, I have maybe spent another $250 on parts and tools. I have been riding to and from uni and now work pretty much every day for three years and I love it to bits.

Re: Peloton S-1

#127

Post by latchkey »

bduerst wrote: post #101
nlawalker wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had no idea! I had to go find it for myself: https://www.onepeloton.com/membership $19.49/mo gets you all the content. It's double that ($39) to make use of the bike's live metrics/dashboard/leaderboard, plus the bike itself is $2245. This is really interesting to me, as I've heard quite a few people say that the content is what they really like.

Anecdotally I know people to go home and race each other on their Pelotons. They all seem to like theirs.

Zwift is a really great platform for this.

Re: Peloton S-1

#128

Post by ves »

brendanw wrote: post #61
jdm2212 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in the US, trying to ride a bike outdoors in a lot of places is a good way to get yourself killed by a car. I've spent the last 5 years in NYC and SF (which are both very bike friendly). I bike rarely and pretty cautiously, but even so all of my closest calls with getting killed by a car have been on a bike.

How about the Presidio for riding? I am not a cyclist. I incurred a foot injury recently, and have been thinking of ways I can exercise without impacting my feet too much. I've thought riding a bicycle around the Presidio could be pretty nice.

It’s not very big, is the problem, and is often full of tourists.

Re: Peloton S-1

#129

Post by scarface74 »

SCAQTony wrote: post #102
nlawalker wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had no idea! I had to go find it for myself: https://www.onepeloton.com/membership $19.49/mo gets you all the content. It's double that ($39) to make use of the bike's live metrics/dashboard/leaderboard, plus the bike itself is $2245. This is really interesting to me, as I've heard quite a few people say that the content is what they really like.

Perhaps a better investment would be to buy a road bike for $2,000. Spend $245 on a trainer and gear. Finally, get the subscription to the classes, and now you have both Peleton classes and a road bike.

You’re assuming that people who buy a Peloton want to ride outside. Also, half the purpose of Peloton is the tracking and app integration.

Re: Peloton S-1

#130

Post by eddyg »

I use a Keiser M3i with the Peloton app on an iPad. It’s great. The Peloton app records heart rate and cadence via Bluetooth. I run the Keiser app on my phone to record additional metrics, such as power. Much better solution than being tied to a proprietary Peloton bike while still enjoying the benefits of the always-fresh Peloton classes.

Mike biggest complaint is the music change. Way too many knock-off versions of songs by “studio musicians” instead of the original artists... https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/25/peloton-users-music-comp...

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