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Peloton S-1

sec.gov

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Re: Peloton S-1

#11

Post by uptown »

Under the risks section:

"We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;"

What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that you don't get to participate in the leader-board gamification of your workout, and your bike won't have the integrated sensors to tie your output back into their app, but for a fraction of the price of both the bike and the service, it's a good way to either test out their service to determine whether it's something you're into, or to permanantly utilize most of their product at a fraction of the cost.

Re: Peloton S-1

#13

Post by sca4 »

blawson wrote: post #5
michaelvoz wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IPO takes months and months of effort and planning. It is not as short term as you seem to imply.

Also looks like they are already profitable, and growing like crazy. EDIT: my bad interpreting the loss format, they are not profitable.

They're operating at a -25% EBITDA, so no they are not.

Re: Peloton S-1

#14

Post by yowlingcat »

whalesalad wrote: post #2

Can't help but start to think that everyone is cashing out before the impending recession.

This comment has nothing to do with the financials of this particular IPO and everything to do with a perceived correlation between this event and some arbitrary macroeconomic event. Is there any reasoning you can give for why your hunch disproves the null hypothesis, which is that there is no connection between IPOs and what you perceive to be the impending recession?

Re: Peloton S-1

#15

Post by cbhl »

Is it normal for the "20-votes-per-share" class B stock to "convert automatically upon ... (ii) ten years from the closing of this offering"?

Re: Peloton S-1

#16

Post by SanchoPanda »

They seem to have been careful to take some lessons from the soul cycle S-1 and roadshow, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644874/000119312515.... That one was eventually pulled.

The subscription part is interesting, they did 4x the sales in bikes -connected fitness products- as 2 years ago (719/183), and cogs is ~4x (410/113). But subscription revs are up 5x (181/35) and cogs on that are only up 3x (100/3).

Re: Peloton S-1

#17

Post by SanchoPanda »

jakarta wrote: post #6

Nice unit economics: Our Connected Fitness Subscriber Lifetime Value for fiscal 2017, fiscal 2018, and fiscal 2019, was $267.1 million, $604.4 million, and $1,053.8 million, respectively, or $3,433, $4,015, and $3,593 per Connected Fitness Subscriber, respectively. As we expand our content offering, develop new interactive software features, and grow our community of Members, we believe we can maintain a low Average…

Agreed. And nothing surreal at first glance in it's calculation either. EBITDA as well.

Re: Peloton S-1

#18

Post by tempsy »

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

Re: Peloton S-1

#19

Post by uptown »

kgwgk wrote: post #9

There are some funny things in the Risk Factors section: “We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting and if our remediation of such material weaknesses is not effective, or if we fail to develop and maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting, our ability to produce timely and accurate financial statements or comply wit…

"There are also three long subsections about music licensing."

I'm a customer. I've noticed that some of their old classes are no longer available, presumably due to music licensing issues.

Re: Peloton S-1

#20

Post by SanchoPanda »

cbhl wrote: post #15

Is it normal for the "20-votes-per-share" class B stock to "convert automatically upon ... (ii) ten years from the closing of this offering"?

Earlier of three events with a hard cap at 10 years, not really. Thats a bit of peace offering to investors re: dual(+) share classes and control.
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