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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#51

Post by discreteevent »

gnopgnip wrote: post #45
Alex3917 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

A spin bike is not really the same thing as a bike on a trainer because of the social aspect, and the classes. And the cost of a Peloton and the subscription is less than traditional spin classes. I am surprised that people are willing to spend 2x-10x as much as competing products when you look at the total cost.

Zwift adds the social to a bike on a trainer. The big advantage of a bike on a trainer is that it's the bike you will use on the road so the fit etc is exactly the same when you do get out (I realise there's a huge market for indoor only)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zwift

Re: Peloton S-1

#53

Post by nlawalker »

uptown wrote: post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

I had no idea! I had to go find it for myself: https://www.onepeloton.com/membership

$19.49/mo gets you all the content. It's double that ($39) to make use of the bike's live metrics/dashboard/leaderboard, plus the bike itself is $2245.

This is really interesting to me, as I've heard quite a few people say that the content is what they really like.

Re: Peloton S-1

#54

Post by gamblor956 »

michaelwilson wrote: post #46
jakarta wrote: post #6

Nice unit economics: Our Connected Fitness Subscriber Lifetime Value for fiscal 2017, fiscal 2018, and fiscal 2019, was $267.1 million, $604.4 million, and $1,053.8 million, respectively, or $3,433, $4,015, and $3,593 per Connected Fitness Subscriber, respectively. As we expand our content offering, develop new interactive software features, and grow our community of Members, we believe we can maintain a low Average…

What's amazing is that they get people to pay _more_ than they would - or would even think of paying - for a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu, but their content creation costs are obviously a fraction of what it take to produce even one show on those platforms.

What's really crazy is that the cost of 1 month of a Peloton subscription is less than the cost of 2 spinning classes in a real-world spin studio.

If you spin enough, you actually do save money with a Peloton. $40/month + $2000/bike vs $30/class (in LA/NY/SF) results in a breakeven point of roughly 4 months if you spin every weekday, which many spin aficionados do.

Re: Peloton S-1

#55

Post by rossdavidh »

michaelwilson wrote: post #46
jakarta wrote: post #6

Nice unit economics: Our Connected Fitness Subscriber Lifetime Value for fiscal 2017, fiscal 2018, and fiscal 2019, was $267.1 million, $604.4 million, and $1,053.8 million, respectively, or $3,433, $4,015, and $3,593 per Connected Fitness Subscriber, respectively. As we expand our content offering, develop new interactive software features, and grow our community of Members, we believe we can maintain a low Average…

What's amazing is that they get people to pay _more_ than they would - or would even think of paying - for a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu, but their content creation costs are obviously a fraction of what it take to produce even one show on those platforms.

If they actually use it, it is probably doing them a lot more good than Netflix or Hulu.

Re: Peloton S-1

#56

Post by Alex3917 »

gamblor956 wrote: post #47
Alex3917 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

This is nothing like Juicero. Peloton addresses two real needs in the exercise marketplace: home-based classes, and high-quality exercise machines. It simply combined both into one product. There is huge demand for the former, especially from white-collar workers with high demands on their free time, and a a fair amount of demand for the latter. At $2000, a Peloton bike is $1000 to $2000 cheaper than the cheapest car…

Bikes are usually 20 - 35% off when the next years models come out, which e.g. is this week for Cannondale. You can easily get a carbon Synapse for less than 2K from almost any bike shop that sells them, or even REI. It’s an endurance bike, but for doing low cardio you wouldn’t necessarily want a race bike anyway.

Re: Peloton S-1

#57

Post by jdm2212 »

jgys wrote: post #49
cellis wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought one. I like it because it's pretty high quality, I didn't have to pay cash ( using Affirm it's 62/mo /39 months), and I was able to test ride 2 of them for free ( apartment complex has a gym with one, but very hard to get a time to ride ). My girlfriend likes it because it saves tons of time compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class and they have nice social features like a competition ladder. Bu…

> compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class Radical idea: rather than choosing between a $2,000 stationary bike for your living room or burning a bunch of fossil fuels to move yourself and your 2,000+ pounds of motor vehicle to a gym to ride somebody else's stationary bike, you could just buy an ordinary bike and ride around outside. You could probably even buy a indoor trainer for your ordinary bike as w…

At least in the US, trying to ride a bike outdoors in a lot of places is a good way to get yourself killed by a car. I've spent the last 5 years in NYC and SF (which are both very bike friendly). I bike rarely and pretty cautiously, but even so all of my closest calls with getting killed by a car have been on a bike.

Re: Peloton S-1

#58

Post by rossdavidh »

TLDR; "We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception in 2012, including net losses of $(71.1) million, $(47.9) million, and $(195.6) million for fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and expect to continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future..."

Re: Peloton S-1

#59

Post by gamblor956 »

mdorazio wrote: post #43
askafriend wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen how expensive a gym membership is?

Under $30 a month for a 24 hour fitness membership via Costco with zero initial cost ;) "Nice" gyms like Equinox are of course significantly more. It's important to segment the gym market into different tiers and niches, and figure out what the market size is for each. Same as for direct equipment sales like this. To your point, though, I suspect the people who would pony up for a Peloton are the same people who woul…

Spin classes cost $30/month at spin studios. The people going to those classes are Peloton's target market, not the people content to spin at the local 24 hour fitness.

Re: Peloton S-1

#60

Post by adtac »

rossdavidh wrote: post #58

TLDR; "We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception in 2012, including net losses of $(71.1) million, $(47.9) million, and $(195.6) million for fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and expect to continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future..."

Aha, this is what the cool kids call growth hacking! Exponential growth in net loss YoY. I've been a complete idiot trying to grow the curve in the other direction.
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