Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Peloton S-1

sec.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 212 posts

Re: Peloton S-1

#41

Post by blawson »

fbonetti wrote: post #24
blawson wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also looks like they are already profitable, and growing like crazy. EDIT: my bad interpreting the loss format, they are not profitable.

> We have incurred operating losses in the past, expect to incur operating losses in the future, and may not achieve or maintain profitability in the future > We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception in 2012, including net losses of $(71.1) million, $(47.9) million, and $(195.6) million for fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and expect to continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable…

My mistake, I interpreted the $(...) values as being negative losses.

Re: Peloton S-1

#42

Post by dsfyu404ed »

askafriend wrote: post #21
sharps_xp wrote: post #8

Given how expensive a bike is, I imagine their market being even smaller than the apple iPhone market and a subscription-based health system can arguably be as important to someone as an iPhone, but it doesn't really have that "i want that" shine that iPhone does. I imagine they'll see a lot of growth short term and taper off really soon maybe after 6 years.

Have you seen how expensive a gym membership is?

A gym membership starts at under $30/mo. I'm not sure at what point money spent becomes rapidly divorced from what you get but I'd wager that point is closer to $30/mo than to $100/mo.

Re: Peloton S-1

#43

Post by mdorazio »

askafriend wrote: post #21
sharps_xp wrote: post #8

Given how expensive a bike is, I imagine their market being even smaller than the apple iPhone market and a subscription-based health system can arguably be as important to someone as an iPhone, but it doesn't really have that "i want that" shine that iPhone does. I imagine they'll see a lot of growth short term and taper off really soon maybe after 6 years.

Have you seen how expensive a gym membership is?

Under $30 a month for a 24 hour fitness membership via Costco with zero initial cost ;)

"Nice" gyms like Equinox are of course significantly more. It's important to segment the gym market into different tiers and niches, and figure out what the market size is for each. Same as for direct equipment sales like this.

To your point, though, I suspect the people who would pony up for a Peloton are the same people who would splurge for a $100/month gym membership instead of a 24 hour, Planet Fitness, or local hole in the wall gym.

Re: Peloton S-1

#44

Post by Brendinooo »

Alex3917 wrote: post #29
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

It's way too expensive for me and I have no interest in doing cardio indoors, but I think you're missing out on the value of the digital side of the product.

I think exercise bikes and treadmills are dreadfully boring, but what Peloton offers is exactly targeted at that problem. Adding an array of things to do and a social aspect has to be a big deal, and if that's all packaged together in a high end package that "just works", and works really well - that seems like a winning formula.

There's a lot of fitness subscription services out there, but there's more money to be made on hardware in general. So as long as there's a market for people to pay two grand for a stationary bike and whatever dollars a month for a subscription, it's a winning business model. I'm guessing it stacks up against the SoulCycles of the world very nicely.

Re: Peloton S-1

#45

Post by gnopgnip »

Alex3917 wrote: post #29
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

A spin bike is not really the same thing as a bike on a trainer because of the social aspect, and the classes. And the cost of a Peloton and the subscription is less than traditional spin classes.

I am surprised that people are willing to spend 2x-10x as much as competing products when you look at the total cost.

Re: Peloton S-1

#46

Post by michaelwilson »

jakarta wrote: post #6

Nice unit economics: Our Connected Fitness Subscriber Lifetime Value for fiscal 2017, fiscal 2018, and fiscal 2019, was $267.1 million, $604.4 million, and $1,053.8 million, respectively, or $3,433, $4,015, and $3,593 per Connected Fitness Subscriber, respectively. As we expand our content offering, develop new interactive software features, and grow our community of Members, we believe we can maintain a low Average…

What's amazing is that they get people to pay _more_ than they would - or would even think of paying - for a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu, but their content creation costs are obviously a fraction of what it take to produce even one show on those platforms.

Re: Peloton S-1

#47

Post by gamblor956 »

Alex3917 wrote: post #29
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

This is nothing like Juicero.

Peloton addresses two real needs in the exercise marketplace: home-based classes, and high-quality exercise machines. It simply combined both into one product.

There is huge demand for the former, especially from white-collar workers with high demands on their free time, and a a fair amount of demand for the latter.

At $2000, a Peloton bike is $1000 to $2000 cheaper than the cheapest carbon-frame bike I could find on Google, and more than $3000 cheaper than a racing or tri-bike. For indoor use, you'd also need a trainer, adding another $600-$2000 to the cost (depending on the trainer you get).

Generally, the people I know that have carbon fiber frames also have several other bikes, each for a different niche, and the Peloton would slot right into the indoor spin use case.

Re: Peloton S-1

#48

Post by dralley »

tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

"how can we be headed for a recession when my janitor just bought a second house?"

Re: Peloton S-1

#49

Post by jgys »

cellis wrote: post #27
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

I bought one. I like it because it's pretty high quality, I didn't have to pay cash ( using Affirm it's 62/mo /39 months), and I was able to test ride 2 of them for free ( apartment complex has a gym with one, but very hard to get a time to ride ). My girlfriend likes it because it saves tons of time compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class and they have nice social features like a competition ladder. Bu…

> compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class

Radical idea: rather than choosing between a $2,000 stationary bike for your living room or burning a bunch of fossil fuels to move yourself and your 2,000+ pounds of motor vehicle to a gym to ride somebody else's stationary bike, you could just buy an ordinary bike and ride around outside. You could probably even buy a indoor trainer for your ordinary bike as well, for less than the cost of a Peloton.

I mean, you do you, I guess... I just can't comprehend the appeal of paying $2,000 for a bike that doesn't even take you anywhere. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: Peloton S-1

#50

Post by gamblor956 »

jimbob45 wrote: post #28
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

I feel like you're onto something. They take an iPad, slap it on an exercise bike, and charge $2000 for it. I could do that for the cost of the parts. The only thing protecting their business model is their exclusive patent on the idea. Perhaps the patent system is what is truly at fault here?

Ipad: $800 (for similar size screen) Quality bike of similar component parts: $800+. Trainer: $800.

You're already $400 behind the cost of a Peloton, which is only $2000...

If you have access to wholesale prices for these parts, sure you could build your own Peloton at home. But using off-the-shelf parts you're just wasting money.

Post reply on HN