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Peloton S-1

sec.gov

21–30 of 212 posts

Re: Peloton S-1

#21

Given how expensive a bike is, I imagine their market being even smaller than the apple iPhone market and a subscription-based health system can arguably be as important to someone as an iPhone, but it doesn't really have that "i want that" shine that iPhone does. I imagine they'll see a lot of growth short term and taper off really soon maybe after 6 years.

Have you seen how expensive a gym membership is?

Re: Peloton S-1

#23
post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

Do economic models distinguish consumer confidence from ignorance?

Re: Peloton S-1

#24
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IPO takes months and months of effort and planning. It is not as short term as you seem to imply.

Also looks like they are already profitable, and growing like crazy. EDIT: my bad interpreting the loss format, they are not profitable.

> We have incurred operating losses in the past, expect to incur operating losses in the future, and may not achieve or maintain profitability in the future

> We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception in 2012, including net losses of $(71.1) million, $(47.9) million, and $(195.6) million for fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and expect to continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future.

They've never been profitable.

Re: Peloton S-1

#26

Can't help but start to think that everyone is cashing out before the impending recession.

Grouping the filings from https://sec.report/Form/S-1 by day:

2019-07-18 5

2019-07-19 7

2019-07-22 10

2019-07-23 4

2019-07-24 12

2019-07-25 12

2019-07-26 7

2019-07-29 7

2019-07-30 7

2019-07-31 4

2019-08-01 5

2019-08-02 14

2019-08-05 3

2019-08-06 7

2019-08-07 6

2019-08-08 6

2019-08-09 5

2019-08-12 10

2019-08-13 5

2019-08-14 2

2019-08-15 6

2019-08-16 5

2019-08-19 4

2019-08-20 5

2019-08-21 8

2019-08-22 4

2019-08-23 9

2019-08-26 4

2019-08-27 2

Grouping this by complete weeks (excluding weeks where we don't have a complete Monday -> Friday list) we get totals of 45, 37, 27, 28, 30, in that order. Don't know what typical trends are by time of year, etc. HN has had a flurry of posts about S1s, but this trend doesn't seem to be the sudden uptick it has seemed to be on HN.

Re: Peloton S-1

#27
post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

I bought one. I like it because it's pretty high quality, I didn't have to pay cash ( using Affirm it's 62/mo /39 months), and I was able to test ride 2 of them for free ( apartment complex has a gym with one, but very hard to get a time to ride ). My girlfriend likes it because it saves tons of time compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class and they have nice social features like a competition ladder. But I don't do the classes, I just use it for the free ride.I try to set new PRs in terms of wattage, peak HR etc. Edit: I also like that you can sync your heart rate/ distance to Apple Health and it counts towards your rings in Apple Activity/Apple Watch.

Re: Peloton S-1

#28
post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

I feel like you're onto something. They take an iPad, slap it on an exercise bike, and charge $2000 for it. I could do that for the cost of the parts. The only thing protecting their business model is their exclusive patent on the idea. Perhaps the patent system is what is truly at fault here?

Re: Peloton S-1

#29
post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist.

The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you weren't on a varsity sports team in high school or college and didn't learn how to work out properly, then it's easily 5x more expensive to do so as an adult. So maybe there is some value in having someone to teach you how to do basic cardio.

Re: Peloton S-1

#30

Can't help but start to think that everyone is cashing out before the impending recession.

Grouping the filings from https://sec.report/Form/S-1 by day: 2019-07-18 5 2019-07-19 7 2019-07-22 10 2019-07-23 4 2019-07-24 12 2019-07-25 12 2019-07-26 7 2019-07-29 7 2019-07-30 7 2019-07-31 4 2019-08-01 5 2019-08-02 14 2019-08-05 3 2019-08-06 7 2019-08-07 6 2019-08-08 6 2019-08-09 5 2019-08-12 10 2019-08-13 5 2019-08-14 2 2019-08-15 6 2019-08-16 5 2019-08-19 4 2019-08-20 5 2019-08-21 8 2019-08-22 4 2019-08-23 9 20…

I think you'd want a chart going back a few years, grouped by month. Glad to see some actual data though!
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