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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#81

Post by realshowbiz »

tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

On the other hand I wonder what effect easily accessible credit cards have on overall sales for products like this.

On a personal level it would be a stretch for me to spend $2200 when I could get a used airdyne and an ipad for less than half.

Re: Peloton S-1

#82

Post by kjbfojbejib »

uptown wrote: post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

I did exactly that for over a year, at which point I felt I had contributed my fair bit to their operation. Now I have about twenty classes ripped to my device that I select at random and use on an excellent spin bike at my gym.

Re: Peloton S-1

#83

Post by mbesto »

michaelwilson wrote: post #46
jakarta wrote: post #6

Nice unit economics: Our Connected Fitness Subscriber Lifetime Value for fiscal 2017, fiscal 2018, and fiscal 2019, was $267.1 million, $604.4 million, and $1,053.8 million, respectively, or $3,433, $4,015, and $3,593 per Connected Fitness Subscriber, respectively. As we expand our content offering, develop new interactive software features, and grow our community of Members, we believe we can maintain a low Average…

What's amazing is that they get people to pay _more_ than they would - or would even think of paying - for a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu, but their content creation costs are obviously a fraction of what it take to produce even one show on those platforms.

This is an odd comparison.

content that results in entertainment != content that results in health benefits

People regularly pay $50~$100/month for a gym membership so they're anchored against that.

Re: Peloton S-1

#84

Post by kjbfojbejib »

uptown wrote: post #77
nlawalker wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had no idea! I had to go find it for myself: https://www.onepeloton.com/membership $19.49/mo gets you all the content. It's double that ($39) to make use of the bike's live metrics/dashboard/leaderboard, plus the bike itself is $2245. This is really interesting to me, as I've heard quite a few people say that the content is what they really like.

There’s a couple writeups on the web. Here’s one I used: https://www.sippingandshopping.org/my-peloton-bike-alternati... Presumably that post has affiliate links. It’s not my page. I guess they’ve raised the subscription price. I think I’m grandfathered in at $13/mo paid via iTunes which I preload with discounted iTunes cards to knock another 15-20% off the price paid. I do wish I had the metrics and integrated solut…

> I do wish I had the metrics and integrated solution.

The only metric that matters is how many workouts did you do today, or this week. Unless perhaps you're planning on entering some sort of competitive spinning event all those numbers don't add up to anything.

Re: Peloton S-1

#85

Post by huac »

stefan_ wrote: post #75
gamblor956 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radical idea: Peloton's target market is the kind of person who is willing to spend $2000 on an indoor spin bike either as their primary mode of exercise or as one of many bikes they own. Especially people who want to spin during times of inclement or excessive warm weather. The Peloton may not make much sense to people living in pleasant cycling meccas on the West Coast, but east of the Rockies the weather is a lot…

In particular, Peloton's target market is overwhelmingly female . You won't find it in this S1, but this alone is why you can straight up disregard everything you will read on HN today about their business model. No, it turns out women don't buy carbon bikes, a standalone trainer, wrench a cassette on it, put the bike on, hook up a tablet somewhere, install a power meter, ... it's the ole "rsync is superior to Dropbo…

very few men would do this either

Re: Peloton S-1

#86

Post by gcbw3 »

tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

luxury design is well stablished field. And it is not that impacted by world crisis and recession.

The trick here is fooling common investors into into without realizing it is a luxury market.

Basically, there is a small but lucrative market. You know that you have to milk it while you can and move on.

This kind of startup, exploit this small market mostly to inflate the numbers. Probably they already have 100% of their real market cap, but they will claim that they can still expand to billions of people that pay $5/mo gyms all around the world and only increase their growth (when they very might be already at 100% and realistically their future growth is zero ...or until the pile of money they get runs out)

...a funny exercise: search for the first anecdotes from the first clients of juicero here on HN ;)

Re: Peloton S-1

#87

Post by jdalgetty »

mrnobody_67 wrote: post #78

Churn rate is better than I would have guessed. Losses going up 4x year over year to $200m on $1b in revenue is pretty insane though.

When you spend that much on the bike you'd better get your money's worth.

Re: Peloton S-1

#88

Post by mrnobody_67 »

jdalgetty wrote: post #87
mrnobody_67 wrote: post #78

Churn rate is better than I would have guessed. Losses going up 4x year over year to $200m on $1b in revenue is pretty insane though.

When you spend that much on the bike you'd better get your money's worth.

I bought nearly new equipment for my home gym for 1/5th of the retail value on Craigslist... tons of sellers out there.

Re: Peloton S-1

#90

Post by cellis »

jgys wrote: post #49
cellis wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought one. I like it because it's pretty high quality, I didn't have to pay cash ( using Affirm it's 62/mo /39 months), and I was able to test ride 2 of them for free ( apartment complex has a gym with one, but very hard to get a time to ride ). My girlfriend likes it because it saves tons of time compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class and they have nice social features like a competition ladder. Bu…

> compared to driving to e.g. SoulCycle or a spin class Radical idea: rather than choosing between a $2,000 stationary bike for your living room or burning a bunch of fossil fuels to move yourself and your 2,000+ pounds of motor vehicle to a gym to ride somebody else's stationary bike, you could just buy an ordinary bike and ride around outside. You could probably even buy a indoor trainer for your ordinary bike as w…

I have 2 trek bikes, one carbon fiber. I love cycling at high speeds. Unfortunately because of awful drivers I can’t do this. So yes, I use the Peloton, in addition to cycling to work and around the Bay Area ( but at lower speeds ;) )
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