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US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

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Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#561
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The modern welfare state, where millions of people are immediately hurt by the federal system grinding to a halt and stopping, would have been anathema to the framers. So too would have been the dominance of corporate interests in the political system. But here we are.

So too would women, blacks, Asians, and the poor having the right to vote be anathema to them. Why again do we really care about parsing exactly what the Founders would say about the modern world?

The United States went from a inhospitable backwoods outpost isolated from the entire developed world to the most powerful nation in the world in somewhere around 200 years. These numbers sound larger because we don't live very long but relative to the span of civilizations we are an unimaginable success. Many countries today have e.g. restaurants that predate our country by hundreds of years.

This is important for two reasons. The first is obvious - we did something very right. I don't think there's any single thing you can pinpoint as the secret sauce so I think it's very important to learn from and consider our entire system, its motivations, and rationale in a comprehensive but holistic fashion.

The second reason is perhaps even more important. Do you know what every great superpower before America has in common? They no longer exist. And in many cases not only do they no longer exist, but their former territory is in shambles. It's amazing, and disconcerting, to imagine that Spain was once a global superpower. The point of this is that it's critical to learn from the past, lest we repeat it. The stories may change, but the fundamental problems and decisions that nations face remain quite similar.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Q: Why don't republicans want to betray their leader? Is there that much republican support for Trump right now?

Republican support for Trump has dropped from 97% to like 90% this past month. Sooooo... yeah. I forget the numbers exactly, but its well above 80%. Note: Republican Senators and House members are trapped. Literally every Republican Senator up for election 2016 to 2018 who said something bad about Trump was voted out. Lisa Murkowski is the one exception: her next election is in 2022. And she's clearly expecting Trump…

Oh, okay. Thanks for explaining. Do you know some of the reasonings around the support for the shut down?

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the Congress is by no means required to give the President everything he asks for. The perfectly good funding plan was given to Trump by his allies when they controlled both houses, it was the most favorable plan he could ever possibly get. It even had some wall funding in it. It was 100% his decision to veto it, and 100% his stupid fault for thinking that he could get more concessions from his enemies than he co…

I commend you for being motivated but this doesn't match the actual facts. President Trump has not vetoed a single bill during his term of office thus far. Go look this up if you do not believe me. Please see spurcell93's sibling comment to yours in this thread.

No, he didn't, he called Paul Ryan and said "if you don't give me XYZ demands that Mitch McConnel wouldn't let me have I'll veto the bill and shut down the government" and then Ryan flopped around like a fish and then the shutdown started. It was still Trump's veto that started the whole thing, the fact that it was threatened instead of exercised makes no difference.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#564
My mind is blown by how the US Federal Government can claim someone is essential and force them to work without pay.

I've read a pretty good explanation of it here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/01/11/how-can-go...

Yet, I still cannot understand how it is legal to make people work without pay based on an Attorney General's thoughts on it in the 1980s.

Amazing.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Republican support for Trump has dropped from 97% to like 90% this past month. Sooooo... yeah. I forget the numbers exactly, but its well above 80%. Note: Republican Senators and House members are trapped. Literally every Republican Senator up for election 2016 to 2018 who said something bad about Trump was voted out. Lisa Murkowski is the one exception: her next election is in 2022. And she's clearly expecting Trump…

Oh, okay. Thanks for explaining. Do you know some of the reasonings around the support for the shut down?

Politics is innately emotional, and not a thing of reason.

Fundamentally, when people choose a leader, they will then follow that person. Its an innate characteristic of humans. Its not a Republican or Democrat thing, its simply a human thing.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short of another convention, the amendment has to start in Congress. So they could have brought it up but chose not to. The interstate compact, on the other hand, has enough signers that it is at least plausibly going to be successful. Though there will be lots of legal challenges if it ever gets used, it's not clear they're allowed to do such a thing.

>So they could have brought it up but chose not to They couldn't have. It requires 2/3 of both houses. Democrats never had anywhere near that many seats.

There is a substantial difference on bringing an amendment to the floor for vote and letting all those who disagree with democracy vote against it and have that vote enshrined in permanent record for all to see versus not proposing it at all because "oh no it can never pass with those darn toot'n republicans!".

Its why the US Democratic party isn't seen as just objectively better than Republicans even in intellectual circles. They don't actually represent abject moralistic improvement or they would push such an agenda when they had power, even if it wasn't guaranteed to succeed. They should be pressing it even now, when they have only half of congress and don't hold the presidency, to paint their opponents as against policies most of the citizens agree with.

But they don't propose them because a majority are bought and paid for by the same interests that sponsor Republicans. Talk on campaign trails about fair elections or fixing flaws in democracy or the execution of the government are cheap. When they actually are in power and make no attempt on that front you see their true colors and who their true constituents are.

For all their flaws, at least Republicans constantly brought bills to repeal the ACA to a vote over and over for years under Obama. It was only once it actually had a chance of passing under Trump that they stopped doing it knowing it would self-sabotage their reelection campaigns if rednecks suddenly lost their healthcare in many states. But that doesn't justify the "blue team" never bringing the policies they campaign on to a vote even if they have no chance on passing, because that is the whole reason many people turn out to vote for them in the first place.

Its part of why Bernie is so popular. He has a track record of constantly pushing in committee single payer healthcare and similar policies like increased minimum wage. Even when he knows he has no chance of even reaching a vote with his legislation he still tries because its his job to do so and its what he owed his electorate for what he promised when they voted for him. Hes not alone in it, but hes absolutely in a minority of ethical congressmen willing to do so.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#567
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen too many people say, "Oh, government workers should all know this stuff happens all the time, and if they don't have months or years of savings in the bank then it's just their fault". It's really sad that instead of being compassionate, too many are focusing on what "should" be instead of what is the reality for many people. Like you point out, the reality is that most people don't have savings. They shoul…

the whole debate is beside the point anyway. If federal workers all magically had 5 months savings then the shutdown would just go on for 6 months. Or until it caused unbearable hardship for other groups like food stamp recipients. It's a game of chicken, the whole point is to cause a ramp up of pain and suffering until one side caves.

Food stamps run out in March which generally sets a deadline to any shutdown. If it reaches that far the side that relies on the foodstamp vote will end up being forced to agree to practically anything. Even setting pragmatic politics aside, when the food stamps run out you're likely to see urban riots, looting, and so on that would rapidly force a the same concession in any case.

I would be extremely surprised if the shutdown reached February since the closer we get to the March, the more leverage this side loses.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#568
post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a corporation or other well designed systems there's a clear chain of authority. In the US we have two different branches that can both claim to have a mandate from the people that can get into fights. The designers of the US constitution did better than I would have with the information available to them but we've had lots of sorts of democratic republic tried since then and now we know that US style presidential…

And a few years after Washington we'd have the current vice president and the former secretary of the treasury engage in a duel to the death! Claiming temperance is what kept our system afloat is probably a bit of a stretch. The American political system is literally designed to be dysfunctional. This is what checks and balances are all about. One clique wants A, one clique wants B. If they can't come to a compromise…

The problem with "nobody gets anything" is that it's unworkable in the long run and sooner or later someone decides to just ignore the rules with popular support. See How Democracies Die for a book length treatment but I believe that's an uncontroversial statement about the political science consensus.

I'm not saying it's temperance that keeps the US together (except for the first 8 years) but rather tradition. Long standing institutions tend to amass legitimacy over time.

It's not so much that we have a larger country these days as that we have ideologically distinct parties. We had real ideological distinctions between the Democractic Republicans and the Federalists in the old days and in addition to what you mention there were people considering a military coup if the election of 1800 went the wrong way. Thankfully the Federalists imploded and for a long time parties were mostly patronage machines, though you did have the pro-science, pro-religion, pro-treating other races with respect party versus the pro-freedom, pro-small government, pro-treating other religions with respect party as sort of vague ideologies. Except for the bit where they polarized over slavery and we immediately had a civil war. After progressive reforms made patronage less of an issue the two parties were both still ideologically mixed until the South defected to the Republicans and things have been polarizing ever since.

Right now we're in a situation where the most conservative Democrat in Congress is more liberal than the most liberal Republican, a situation that is basically unprecedented. I don't expect the current system to break soon, hundreds of years of tradition is pretty resilient, but if the current level of partisan divide and constitutional hardball continues it will break down eventually.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#569
I feel bad for the TSA employees, as they couldn't have seen this coming.

But this is yet another reason the TSA should 100% be funded by the airlines, not the Taxpayers of the United States. Those who wish to fly will pay for their own security, those who rarely fly wouldn't.

Re: US shutdown: Flight delays caused by staff shortages

#570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Canada it triggers a new election

In the US, I could see that being weaponized. One side doesn't like the results of the last election, so they force an impasse to get a new one. (In particular, I could see the Democrats trying this after the election of 2016. Perhaps the Republicans after 2018, though I think their motivation would be less strong.) And in the US, I could see that tactic succeeding, unless the voters were willing to punish gaming the…

Perhaps, if the people would allow it.

Theoretically you could end up in a loop where the people vote in Party A in a minority government, then Parties B+C oppose a budget bill, an election is held, Party A is re-elected into a minority government, and Parties B+C oppose a budget bill, and so on.

But it's important to recognize that blocking a budget is a risky manoeuvre. In all likelihood the above cycle would never happen more than once or twice because people find elections irritating. If people think you called an election frivolously then voters will punish you at the polls; in the above example people would eventually get pissed off at B and C and break the cycle by giving A a majority so that they can pass their budget without opposition support.

The important thing is that in the Westminster system (e.g. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK) if Parliament loses the ability to pass important bills then it results in an election. It keeps the opposition parties honest insofar that they have to be confident that they would actually gain in the polls in order for them to force an election by blocking the government. They can't just block things without repercussions.

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