Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#391

Post by cambaceres » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 2:27 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #172

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of t…

Well, don't believe everything you read in the newspapers :) I often get a feeling that journalists, at least in Sweden, really just want big companies to fail, instead of being excited and curious about new technology.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#392

Post by kllrnohj » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 2:30 PM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #200

kllrnohj wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019. But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document: "The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

> But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document:

Which would make it even less likely Tesla can hit 10% of US passenger car sales as they'll be sacrificing what little production they have to try and break into other markets.

Anyway just hitting 10k/week in 2019 isn't sufficient for the 500k number. They'd need to average 10k week for the entirety of 2019. Very different things.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#393

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 2:30 PM UTC

bohm wrote: post #256

mylons wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we are basically living Dune until we're off petroleum from Saudi Arabia.

We are off petroleum from Saudi Arabia. The US now is a net petrol exporter thanks to fracking. We have the cheapest oil in the world.

> We are off petroleum from Saudi Arabia.

Not really; the issue with Saudi oil has mostly not been direct imports US has (both as a net importer and net exporter) for some time gotten more of it's gross imports from other, nearer sources.

The issue for the US with Saudi oil has been global oil prices and the knock-on effects on, well, everything else.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#394

Post by jread » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 2:52 PM UTC

user9995 wrote: post #349

jread wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at To the contrary, user…

> Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there. So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations? So many contradictions in the arguments here. Yes, the Supercharger network was, basically, necessary for Tesla to reach a critical acceptance level. But operating and maintaining those sta…

>So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations?

I think you're underestimating Tesla's first-mover advantage. My father works for a city in LA county and when Tesla decided to build a supercharger there, they initially asked the city to not only provide free real estate and grid connection, but to pay them to do it. Now, the city didn't pay, but it did incentivize in the form of free spaces in a prime shopping center because both city and property owner knew superchargers will bring a steady flow of well-to-do captive audience customers. I'm guessing this scenario is repeating itself all over the country wherein Tesla is building out superchargers for very low upfront and recurring cost.

No other charge network or automobile manufacturer has this type of leverage, nor will they for likely many years. If Electrify America were to approach that same city with the same request they'd likely have to pay/lease real estate, or install in sub-optimal locations (like Walmart parking lots), because they will not bring even remotely close to the same amount of traffic and economic activity as superchargers.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#395

Post by jungturk » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 2:58 PM UTC

Sherl wrote: post #330

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

But I do see that planning a road trip in Tesla is going to require a lot of additional stops. Last time when when I planned for a coast to coast ride, it was 14 hours additional to a regular ride because of the charging time. It's 3000 mile so 10 stops. Sure I can kill those charging times if they bring their 600 mile range roadsters.

You can mitigate the impact of charging time by charging during meals and breaks (which is why the preponderance of superchargers are located next to restaurants).

If your route allows, you can also take advantage of what Tesla calls "destination chargers" - Tesla chargers at hotels that are free-to-use for patrons.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#396

Post by akmiller » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:00 PM UTC

Wehrdo wrote: post #373

jread wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at To the contrary, user…

> charging at I've never heard charging speeds referenced in this way, but it's a really clever way to take into account the charging rate and vehicle efficiency, while being very intuitive! Is this a common "unit" in the EV space?

On Tesla's at least they show you this number alongside the kW's. Definitely easier to communicate with most people and very impressive to see the car getting 400+ miles per hour and the mileage just rolling up while plugged in (so much so that the first time I used one I had to take a video of the screen to show my family!). Obviously that slows down as the battery gets closer to capacity, but damn impressive.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#397

Post by jungturk » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:04 PM UTC

ethagknight wrote: post #288

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Surely Pilot/Loves/FlyingJ et al will begin installing chargers in the near future. They would love a bunch of captives milling around their travel centers. That’s 1000+ locations, and they could install several thousand charging stalls in a matter of months. Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free superchargin…

This will definitely happen (and has already begun).

Several of the Tesla superchargers I use are at independent gas stations just opposite the gas pumps.

Once store owners see the value and demand, they'll likely support infrastructure for EV clients.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#398

Post by jungturk » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC

mobilefriendly wrote: post #342

40acres wrote: post #48

Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead the way. Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric cars are still valid. Tesla is…

The loan was a terrible deal for taxpayers. It enriched early Tesla equity holders -- including foreign Mercedes-- at the public's expense. The govt was taking on huge risk, the loan was vastly bigger than the company's revenues, but taxpayers got no corresponding upside for that risk. A similar loan to Fisker was a $139 million loss for the government.

It doesn't seem that _that_ loan was a terrible deal. It was a loan and it was repaid.

The upside to citizens was probably evaluated under different terms - the development of a nascent industry that could pay social dividends over time in the form of jobs, oil security, etc... (whether that's an appropriate function for government is an entirely different concern).

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#399

Post by EVfuture » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:14 PM UTC

outworlder wrote: post #68

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

> and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations Yeah. Only time I got stranded was because the only reachable station was a Blink one. Sometimes I wonder if the name wasn't deliberately chosen.

Hey! Where was the Blink station located that you were trying to use?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#400

Post by mikestew » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:20 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #386

mikestew wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The person I was responding to was expressing gratitude at having the opportunity to earn 150% ones normal wage per hour. You working salary at your local tech whatever? How much are they paying you to come in on Saturday? I ask because you seem to have missed the point. And 1.5x is the employer discouragement. Who wants to pay 50% more because of poor planning?

I understand what you’re saying, that 50% is better than nothing. Which obviously, I agree with. My contention is that even 50% is not enough to make up for what the worker gives up. Obviously the lack of opportunities may force the employee to accept the arrangement, but I’m speaking about a work life balance overall. And there are many positions where the cost of hiring/training/retaining employees is higher than 5…

Meh, we're just talking past each other, probably were from the start. I'm saying, "time-and-a-half beats working on games at EA for 80 hours/week for base, your factory-working friend has it better than a lot of tech workers" and you're saying "overtime sucks". Both statements are true, we're just negotiating the price...er, wait, wrong metaphor.