Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#161

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:48 PM UTC

gpm wrote: post #148

Dwolb wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost there but not out of the woods yet. Good: $1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables Bad: $2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

Err... they have $3B cash and that increased $731M Q3. So I don't see why there would be any short term issues with those other numbers.

They have $3B cash, but owe their suppliers a total of $3.5 Billion right now. (Accounts payable).

There's a LOT of assets / liabilities to juggle. Tesla also has $1.5 Billion of incoming cash (Accounts receivable), which is basically people who are currently in the process of paying Tesla right now.

But in any case: Tesla's liquid liabilities are larger than their liquid assets. Its a bad spot to be in for sure. Its solvable though, but the question is what does Tesla lose by solving it.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#162

Post by Certhas » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:48 PM UTC

ddoolin wrote: post #102

nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

You should share what those cars are. Also, when are they planning to enter the market at large? Why haven't they done so yet? I don't doubt other major manufacturers will soon give Tesla a run for their money, but mysterious Chinese manufacturers? Certainly.

This isn't some secret.

"Global annual sales of EVs surpassed one million for the first time in 2017, and China (where EV sales doubled in 2017) accounted for more than half of those."

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-car-sales-china-vs-...

This is only natural if you accept that batteries are the key technology here, and China is bringing far more battery tech online than anyone else:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-leading-charge-lithium...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#163

Post by iamgopal » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:49 PM UTC

Even the largest automakers of the world will be like bug hit by a windshield. This is Nokia vs Apple all over again.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#164

Post by cobookman » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:49 PM UTC

bjelkeman-again wrote: post #50

morsma wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does gasoline engines receive subsidies? I just bought a brand new ICE vehicle, and I'd sure like to know when my check arrives...

Not the cars, but the fuel. “America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies. Abolish them” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...

US also spends money on electricity subsidies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies#United_States

"""

Renewable energy: $7.3 billion (45 percent)

Energy efficiency: $4.8 billion (29 percent)

Fossil fuels: $3.2 billion (20 percent)

Nuclear energy: $1.1 billion (7 percent)

"""

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#165

Post by JaRail » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:49 PM UTC

kylec wrote: post #137

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

We associate shorts with all the trolls you see in Tesla threads, spreading lies about EVs, climate change, etc. It just gets old listening to that.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#166

Post by adventured » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:52 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #51

The last few big Tesla threads on HN were non-stop piling the shit onto Tesla talking about how untenable they are, bad business model, inability to scale, etc, etc. Is that just an indication that the short sellers have sock puppets here on HN as well? HN happens to be an important source of Tesla news.

I got smacked with waves of downvotes for repeatedly stating a few obvious things: the Model 3 would sell at least 100,000 units this year and that Tesla wasn't going bankrupt anytime soon or going to run out of money soon. These outcomes were not difficult to compute at all. I was mocked for it here, the responses were wildly emotional in nature instead of rational and analytical. You basically couldn't hold a disciplined conversation about Tesla on HN at the time. Despite that abnormal behavior (abnormal for HN), I don't think the very aggressively negative posters on HN were shills at all, they were merely incapable of being objective about Musk & Tesla, falling back on emotional reaction instead. Musk generates an unusually strong negative reaction in some people, they either plainly dislike his personality, or are just falling into the common psychological trap of wanting to see someone brought low (cutting the tall poppies). That reaction then colors how they see Tesla and how they judge the facts of a situation. Failure to correctly assess a situation is almost always a better explanation than something malevolent as motivation.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#167

Post by htkibar » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:53 PM UTC

deepGem wrote: post #45

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the…

It is not as straightforward a process and TSLA has a huge head start on this regard.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#168

Post by bsder » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:55 PM UTC

propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America.

Is that really feasible? That's roughly BMW and Mercedes combined in the US.

It's really easy to forget on the West Coast of the US that BWM, Mercedes and the like are actually rare in the rest of the country.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#169

Post by kllrnohj » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:57 PM UTC

propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America.

US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Model S & X sales have been fairly stable. So that means the Model 3 needs to somehow grow to around 400k/year in order to get to 500k cars next year.

They state production of Model 3 was up to 5,300 per week and that the production system had stabilized with gradual monthly improvements. So currently Tesla can only even build 275k Model 3's a year. I don't think doubling that in such a short time frame meshes with Tesla's comments of "gradual monthly improvements."

350,000 cars in 2019 seems much more likely assuming Model 3 demand holds strong.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#170

Post by RivieraKid » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:59 PM UTC

drexlspivey wrote: post #149

kylec wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

Because it is the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market.

It's not, there are and were many other stocks with higher short/long ratios.