Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#131

Post by rconti » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:26 PM UTC

foobaw wrote: post #10

chollida1 wrote: post #4

One thing to consider that an analyst pointed out. Telsa has alot of net 60 and 90 and 120 day relationships with suppliers, but gets paid from car sales much quicker. This means that they can "financially engineer" quarters to make their cash flow look much better than it would if the payment periods were all net 30. Pre Close: - bit of a perfect storm for Tesla to make a profit - Model X ramp up spend is mostly don…

it seems like you post negative comments on anything Tesla related. Any motivations?

I thought it was pretty useful and even-handed.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#132

Post by Dwolb » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:28 PM UTC

kumarm wrote: post #3

Congrats to Tesla and Musk. The numbers are just insane: "The electric car-maker reported adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share on revenue of $6.82 billion, exceeding average analyst expectations of losses of 15 cents per share on revenue of $6.32 billion."

Almost there but not out of the woods yet.

Good:

$1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables

Bad:

$2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables

Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#133

Post by greglindahl » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:28 PM UTC

mavhc wrote: post #115

sliken wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead of the 26650, which has a larger diameter. Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh, peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people driving real cars on real roads. So sure in theory batteries wit…

Don't most other EVs use flat pouch cell batteries?

I think GM switched from pouch cells to cylindrical cells between the Volt and Bolt. The Leaf still uses a flat pouch. In the US, the Bolt and Leaf are the only other BEVs with significant sales.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#134

Post by rconti » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:28 PM UTC

chollida1 wrote: post #4

One thing to consider that an analyst pointed out. Telsa has alot of net 60 and 90 and 120 day relationships with suppliers, but gets paid from car sales much quicker. This means that they can "financially engineer" quarters to make their cash flow look much better than it would if the payment periods were all net 30. Pre Close: - bit of a perfect storm for Tesla to make a profit - Model X ramp up spend is mostly don…

FWIW, Tesla sales are typically engineered to actually receive payment details before the car itself is delivered. They want to either receive a check on delivery or EFT before/by delivery. That said, my bank doesn't play that game; I'm surprised anyone issues a secured loan without collateral. I guess a purchase 'agreement' is good enough, but they're not even a lienholder in most cases! I don't get how that works.

The staff screwed it up badly enough that I don't think they got the money for our car for at least 6-8 weeks after we took delivery. I kept wondering if it would ever fund.

I'm not sure "perfect storm" is quite correct; we've seen these cycles with every model launch and there are a few profitable quarters, but this one is much more so than most, and should last longer than most, BUT you're absolutely correct that they need to ramp up Model Y spend, then Roadster spend, then.. every other model refresh.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#135

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:29 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #71

synaesthesisx wrote: post #57

Amazing results - I am especially taking great pleasure in watching the shorts get decimated. The Model 3 is a game-changer for the masses. I walked past 6 of them just on my way to get coffee this morning. We're truly witnessing the EV revolution.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#136

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:33 PM UTC

Dwolb wrote: post #132

kumarm wrote: post #3

Congrats to Tesla and Musk. The numbers are just insane: "The electric car-maker reported adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share on revenue of $6.82 billion, exceeding average analyst expectations of losses of 15 cents per share on revenue of $6.32 billion."

Almost there but not out of the woods yet. Good: $1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables Bad: $2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

$2 Billion? I'm only aware of the $920 Million due in March 2019. Is there another major bond worth discussing?

> $1.2B increase in payables

That's a yearly increase. $500M-ish increase between Q2 -> Q3. I think its reasonable to expect payables to go up as they ramp up from 2000 M3/week to 4000 M3/week, but the number still gives me worry.

I think you're right to worry about these numbers. But its important to worry about the CORRECT numbers.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#137

Post by kylec » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:33 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#138

Post by wmf » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:33 PM UTC

deepGem wrote: post #45

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the…

All the other companies combined probably have fewer EVs on the road than Tesla. Building a charger network for 200,000+ Teslas makes sense, but building a similar network for 20,000 BMWs doesn't.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#139

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:35 PM UTC

dgritsko wrote: post #5

This is a really, really big deal. They've still got a long way to go (as I'm sure Musk would be the first person to admit), but turning a profit is no small feat and should be applauded as such.

I dunno. Its not yet a yearly profit. Its a quarterly profit (which is good for sure!!) but they're -$1.5 Billion from Q1 and Q2 so far. So they're likely going to be very negative on this year.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#140

Post by SEJeff » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:37 PM UTC

compcoffee wrote: post #89

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

How is this about "shorts"? I thought the "longs" were all about long term thinking? Why do they claim victory after one decent quarter? Do you realize stock price is still well below the highs? How are the shareholders winners here?

I went long at $218 160 and have held on for the ride the entire time. So far it was the right call, I guess we'll really be able to tell in a few more years.