Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#111

Post by rconti » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:06 PM UTC

dwighttk wrote: post #55

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How competitive will it be when all these model 3 owners start clogging them up?

That's a great question. Model 3 owners pay to use superchargers where S/X owners typically do not. That said, it's not prohibitively expensive (26c/kWh in CA where it cost me 16c/kWh to home charge, off-peak only, in tier 1 (tip: I'm not in tier 1!)

Because it's not prohibitively expensive, Model 3 owners will use them fairly regularly, but not to replace home charging in a way an S/X owner might. For the most part.

Right before our 3 arrived new superchargers went in within 5mi from my house; 1 in East Palo Alto and 1 in San Carlos. They're virtually everywhere around the bay area now, so they've been pretty good at quick rollout of urban superchargers, and it FEELS LIKE they can keep up with demand, here at least. When I check on the map they're busy but never full.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#112

Post by TheSmiddy » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:07 PM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

$2 an hour is incredibly cheap for CBD parking without the added electricity, that doesn't seem expensive to me at all.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#113

Post by Mongus » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:07 PM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #91

Mongus wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?

Superchargers only work with Teslas due to some signaling and they aren't free for all Teslas. You can get an adapter that goes from a Tesla connector to J1772 but it won't work at a Supercharger, just home or destination chargers.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#114

Post by andrewmunsell » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:09 PM UTC

radiorental wrote: post #101

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

I'm pretty sure every Nissan dealer that sells a leaf must operate a charging station. Granted they're not as easy to access at the supercharger network... but it exists.

They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Not to mention, many dealers only have 1-2 chargers total, which is not sustainable for the number of cars that are (or will be) sold.

Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? They wouldn't be comfortable or possibly even welcome at a Nissan dealership to charge.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#115

Post by mavhc » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:12 PM UTC

sliken wrote: post #44

greglindahl wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead of the 26650, which has a larger diameter. Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh, peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people driving real cars on real roads. So sure in theory batteries wit…

Don't most other EVs use flat pouch cell batteries?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#116

Post by thaumaturgy » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:12 PM UTC

spike021 wrote: post #23

Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

I've got a friend on the assembly line in Fremont. He says he doesn't mind the hours too much. However, they basically keep adding extra or overtime shifts to his schedule. I think right now he might be working 5 or 6 day weeks, and I'm fairly sure they're minimum 8 hours, and obviously with overtime could be several hours above that. Sounds awful, but in some ways isn't that how manufacturing has sort of always been…

Yeah, I worked for a while for an electronics component manufacturer that had a monthly hockey stick production schedule. For the first half of the month, I came in to work to wipe down my desk and bullshit with my coworkers. For the last week of every month, it was all-hands plus overtime. If the last day of the month happened to be a Monday, the production manager would try really hard to talk you into coming in for the weekend.

It was absurd. Sensible people hated that place, while a lot of other folks just accepted it as normal.

I suspect the conflicting accounts of life at Tesla work out similarly.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#117

Post by rconti » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:12 PM UTC

akira2501 wrote: post #65

sliken wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead of the 26650, which has a larger diameter. Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh, peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people driving real cars on real roads. So sure in theory batteries wit…

> So sure in theory batteries with more surface area would have greater package efficiencies. There's way more to a battery than just density; however, one of the things that needs to be managed is the heat generated during charging. There might be a case to be made for slightly suboptimal packaging strategies if it makes cooling all those cells that much easier.

Yeah, this really strikes me as a forest for the trees kind of situation. Sometimes it pays to engineer things to death, other times you need to step back and see the whole picture; how important is packaging for efficiency vs cooling vs manufacturing speed, etc.

Automakers putting battery packs in the trunk of their cars are complaining about battery size.

Is anyone complaining the floor on a Tesla is too thick and compromises interior space? Of course not.

The packaging probably DOES add a not-insignificant amount to the total weight of the pack vs an ideal battery of some custom design. But again, you have to weigh (ha!) all of the factors.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#118

Post by andrewmunsell » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:14 PM UTC

TheSmiddy wrote: post #112

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

$2 an hour is incredibly cheap for CBD parking without the added electricity, that doesn't seem expensive to me at all.

In my city (Bellevue, WA), there's ChargePoint stations operated by the city in free street parking and in the park, so the cost is entirely in the operation of the EV station and electricity. It might not seem bad, but it isn't necessarily competitive with a Supercharger or home charging in terms of cost. Blink is worse, at 39c-49c per kWh, which is about $2.50 per hour at the low end.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#119

Post by marricks » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:16 PM UTC

antisthenes wrote: post #27

propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

Is that comment anything but FUD?

They are able to make the cheapest batteries for cars and have seemed to be pretty successful...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#120

Post by rconti » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 10:17 PM UTC

akira2501 wrote: post #69

scotchio wrote: post #2

Congrats to Tesla! This is HILARIOUS to see after the thousands and thousands of negative articles and press over the last year.

> This is HILARIOUS to see after the thousands and thousands of negative articles and press over the last year. I wouldn't hold your breath just yet, the last quarter posted a loss, the one before a gain, and the one before that was a loss. Tesla is showing some signs of long-term capability here, but they're far from out of the woods and into a complete success story.

They will absolutely continue to print money for another quarter or three.

They need sustained demand domestically, though.

Followed by international sales (lots of pent-up international demand already, so that's not an issue in the short-mid term)

Of course, then they need to start gearing up (read: sink massive piles of cash into) to produce the Model Y, and the Roadster, and refresh/redesign the S and the X.

And scale superchargers.

And scale the repair network.

They're certainly not out of the woods, but I think this is one of the best signs yet that they will make it.