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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

ir.tesla.com

81–90 of 418 posts

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#81

The last few big Tesla threads on HN were non-stop piling the shit onto Tesla talking about how untenable they are, bad business model, inability to scale, etc, etc. Is that just an indication that the short sellers have sock puppets here on HN as well? HN happens to be an important source of Tesla news.

Or maybe some of us think Elon Musk is a bit of a wanker and noticed that the numbers didn't look good. It really can be as simple as that.

except they suddenly look amazing now?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#82
post #45

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the…

The current situation with dealers sucks for non-tesla EVs, they're often inside and not accessible. They have other cars parked in the way, the people at the dealer don't care, there aren't enough chargers etc.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#83

I picked up a Model 3 performance about a month ago, I'd recommend anyone interested in Tesla go visit a store and test drive one. They're so far beyond anything anyone else is making.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#84
post #45

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the…

VW is building out chargers as part of the diesel scandal settlement.

https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#85

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How competitive will it be when all these model 3 owners start clogging them up?

When? That time has already arrived for many of us in California. :)

Their response is to build more, of course, and to expand the current ones. I agree with the sibling that this is a good problem for Tesla to have, particularly as new Teslas are paying into those costs.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#87
post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

> Tesla no longer seems to be facing a cash crunch in the near term.

I agree these numbers are, essentially, a spectacular turnaround over the past 6 months for which Tesla deserve enormous credit.

That said, current assets are $7.92 billion and current liabilities are $9.77 billion. It's one thing to have around three billion dollars of cash at hand, but not as great if you have three and half billion dollars of bills falling due soon.

Tesla's current ratio is below 1, they will need that positive cashflow to remain consistent to deal themselves out of debt in time.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

I agree that that model would be awful, but I think maybe that that is too simple of an analogy. We do already have fuel stations which are exclusive right now, in the form of card access only truck stops which only dispense diesel fuel. There are also similar fuel distribution mechanisms in the marine and aviation industries which dispense different types of fuels (Bunker fuel, 100LL, Jet-A, etc.) which can't be used in automotive applications.

The biggest difference here is that electricity, thankfully, is the same in any form, and the key differentiator is the speed at which you can deliver it. I definitely hope that we can agree on better, faster, common, charge delivery formats, but I wouldn't want to put a hamper on innovation, particularly when the electrical automotive industry is so nascent.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#89
post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

How is this about "shorts"? I thought the "longs" were all about long term thinking? Why do they claim victory after one decent quarter?

Do you realize stock price is still well below the highs? How are the shareholders winners here?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Unless they can make charging as quick as filling a tank with gas, there is a lot of opportunity in location and surrounding services, provided while the batteries are being charged.
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