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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#171

Post by samfisher83 »

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

They FCF for the year til date is -$1.0 Billion, but the the Q results are amazing. I don't how they pulled it off.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#172

Post by paulpauper »

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of the gloom we have been seeing lately.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#173

Post by samfisher83 »

hydroreadsstuff wrote: post #61

The revenue for one quarter seems high. Did they carry over some sales from the past or is there something it drawing from future quarters? Edit: Congratz!

Well You can't count future sales as revenue. To recognize revenue you have to deliver the product.

Here are the things from wikipedia:

    Risks and rewards have been transferred from the seller to the buyer
    The seller has no control over the goods sold
    Collection of payment is reasonably assured
    The amount of revenue can be reasonably measured
    Costs of earning the revenue can be reasonably measured

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#174

Post by gamblor956 »

marricks wrote: post #119
antisthenes wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

Is that comment anything but FUD? They are able to make the cheapest batteries for cars and have seemed to be pretty successful...

Panasonic makes the battery cells...Tesla just assembles them together and integrates the cooling system.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#175

Post by kllrnohj »

nikofeyn wrote: post #83
gonehome wrote: post #17

I picked up a Model 3 performance about a month ago, I'd recommend anyone interested in Tesla go visit a store and test drive one. They're so far beyond anything anyone else is making.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

> and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla

Tesla has the worst fit & finish in the industry. It always comes up with every tear down & deep review of a Tesla car.

Tesla's powertrain is largely the only thing they are good at, and has so far been the thing other car manufacturers have struggled to match.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#176

Post by mh8h »

nikofeyn wrote: post #83
gonehome wrote: post #17

I picked up a Model 3 performance about a month ago, I'd recommend anyone interested in Tesla go visit a store and test drive one. They're so far beyond anything anyone else is making.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

There's also the charging network. At least in the North America the Tesla supercharger network is the only viable option if you are doing a road trip.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#177

Post by jacques_chester »

_ea1k wrote: post #92

I feel like the way that the press reports on corporate earnings in general is in bad need of an overhaul. There is a lot of talk in here about "rare" profits and the needs for financing, but little about why that might be the case. Does the reporter genuinely believe that a business like Tesla could be built without doing those things? If you had to recreate Tesla from scratch tomorrow, how much would it cost? And w…

I don't think anyone objects to Tesla taking on debt to finance its growth. The thing is that if your debts are falling due and you don't have enough cash to pay them, you will need to borrow money, sell shares or renegotiate the debts. Your only other option is bankruptcy.

Elon Musk nailed his colours to the mast earlier in the year by saying Tesla would not take on any new debt in 2018. And issuing shares has gotten a bit less simple since his "taking Tesla private" tweet. Which leaves renegotiation or bankruptcy. It remains to be seen whether creditors will renegotiate to avoid the hassle of bankruptcy and the possibility of significant upside through some kind of debt/equity deal. Or whether they will look at the $10Bn of PPE on the assets side of the balance sheet and say "well we can probably get $5Bn for that in a firesale to Toyota, Ford or GM and come out ahead".

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#178

Post by Theodores »

ensignavenger wrote: post #90
olivermarks wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Unless they can make charging as quick as filling a tank with gas, there is a lot of opportunity in location and surrounding services, provided while the batteries are being charged.

Are there any U.S. hotel chains that are in on this?

Hotels have facilities that aren't used after breakfast until the evening, however they still have to have a lot of staff on-site during these hours.

You could have nice food and coffee instead of motorway service station junk, with booking facilities so you can have that coffee ready as you walk through the door and your parking spot for the charging reserved.

This could work really well in the more scenic parts of the world where there is a lot of the infrastructure built out already, just the right plugs with the right volts and amps needed.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#179

Post by jacques_chester »

llsf wrote: post #159
threeseed wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

My understanding is that Tesla short sellers are more visible because of the amount of money betting against Tesla. With an estimated ~$11B of short position ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/04/15/tesla-has... ), that is not fictitious. With so much money at stake, some short sellers might be tempted to start false rumors or even damage the company, in order to recoup some of their money.

Nothing about being long makes people scrupulously truthful.

Every hedge fund will talk their book. Short, long or upside down flying purple sunblock, they will talk their book.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#180

Post by adventured »

kllrnohj wrote: post #169
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

> US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

The parent comment said "cars." You switched that to consumer auto sales. 6.3 million passenger cars were sold in the US in 2017. With passenger car sales declining and generally losing popularity in the US (dropping from 7.9m in 2014), it's plausible that 500,000 will in fact be "almost" 10% of total cars sold in the US in 2019.

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