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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#371

Post by Faark »

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #333
nikofeyn wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

those are all excuses that, in my opinion, causes one to ignore the progress over there. it's dangerous thinking. do you really think that tesla is as safe as other established car manufacturers? (i am aware of their "ratings", which i find hard to believe.) edit: and you can see my other reply or do a google search to see that china's car manufacturing revolution, including their massive and unparalleled surge into…

> i am aware of their "ratings", which i find hard to believe. Is this common among the anti-Tesla crowd? I think you're the first crash rating conspiracy theorist I've come across. If anything I'd assume that the organisations doing the testing would be deeply connected with traditional car manufacturers and that Tesla (as a newcomer) would actually be at a disadvantage. Perhaps you know something we don't?

Some of Tesla's statements regarding safety were apparently a bit exaggerated, in the way advertising often hides fine print to tell you they are the absolute best.

Non the less does Tesla seem focused on safety and I also haven't come across credible reports finding them unsafe, as GP is implying.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#372

Post by gonehome »

nikofeyn wrote: post #311
ddoolin wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should share what those cars are. Also, when are they planning to enter the market at large? Why haven't they done so yet? I don't doubt other major manufacturers will soon give Tesla a run for their money, but mysterious Chinese manufacturers? Certainly.

you are the one uninformed, so maybe you should do a search? there is nothing mysterious about chinese auto manufacturers, in particular the ones making electric vehicles. what do you consider the "market at large"? as someone else mentioned to you, china is the biggest electric vehicle maker and seller in the world. china is also the world's largest auto market. some of the ones that i have personal experience with…

Is this the 50 cent party?

When you make claims you should provide examples to support them, it also doesn’t help that your comments come across as hostile.

Both of those links talk a lot about Chinese ambition and not a lot about any cars being manufactured.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#373

Post by Wehrdo »

jread wrote: post #261
crwalker wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at To the contrary, user…

> charging at

I've never heard charging speeds referenced in this way, but it's a really clever way to take into account the charging rate and vehicle efficiency, while being very intuitive! Is this a common "unit" in the EV space?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#374

Post by Robotbeat »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Nissan has done a good job of installing CHAdeMO DC fast chargers at all their dealerships. I own a Leaf (bought used for $10k), and this allowed me to travel significant distances in spite of the small battery. Granted, this is a huge pain because:

1) Charge rate is 50kW peak, less than half of Supercharger’s 120kW.

2) Leaf battery is small, so you need to stop like every hour or so to charge.

3) 1st gen Leaf battery has no cooling. That’s right, none. Not even air cooling. It relies on thermal mass of the battery & very slow leakage of heat through the structure of the car. This is sufficient for daily commute usage, but Quickcharging produces heat. After 2 or 3 quickcharges, the battery is hot so quickharging rate reduces to more like 15-20kW to reduce heat production (power lost to heat is proportional to current squared, so halving charge rate halves the total heat per unit energy). Teslas and Bolts don’t have this problem as their batteries are liquid cooled.

So you end up only being able to travel 200-300 miles in a day even with Quickcharging. And because of the small battery, Nissan needs a lot more chargers to enable a given trip.

The new Leaf is supposed to have a >200 mile battery and 100kW charger. So about where Tesla was in 2012. But the existing charger network for CHAdeMO is only 40-50kW. Not too bad for an emergency stop, but if your whole trip is that slow charging, it’s significant.

BTW, Teslas can use Chademos with a $500 adapter since the CHAdeMO standard is the basis for the Supercharger standard. Also, CHAdeMO is capable of bidirectional charging, so it’s possible to do vehicle-to-grid with a Nissan Leaf. CHAdeMO is a better standard than the CCS one, but unfortunately most other EVs are using CCS.

And one big advantage Tesla’s Supercharger has is the plug is much smaller (and I believe cheaper to make!). CHAdeMO and CCS plugs are huge and unwieldy. And no one seems to be seeking a more sleek design like Tesla’s.

Fortunately, though, it’s not TOO expensive to provide both a CHAdeMO plug and CCS plug, since the expensive power electronics are the same, just a different protocol and plug, so many DC fast charging stations have both.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#375

Post by AshleyGrant »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #107
compcoffee wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VW is building out chargers as part of the diesel scandal settlement. https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

Funny enough, that's the one current huge investment outside of Tesla in charging infrastructure. If it takes a car company cheating on emissions and being forced to invest in electric, then all of them are going to be doomed to playing catch up.

For sure. I personally think that Electrify America is a stop gap. In the longer term, I would expect to see businesses that already exist near highway exits start to build out DCFC to lure potential customers.

I live in the southeastern US. I have been saying for two years now that Cracker Barrel should be adding DC Fast chargers to each of its restaurants' parking lots. Who cares if the car takes 45 minutes to charge if I can grab a nice meal while I wait.

I used this strategy on my recent Florida-Texas roundtrip in a Model 3. The Baton Rouge Tesla Supercharger is located next to an Acme Oyster House location. I ate a nice lunch while the car charged. I pulled in with a 10% charge and pulled out with about a 90% charge. It was a heck of a lot nicer than eating a hamburger while driving.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#376

Post by Robotbeat »

pwagland wrote: post #364
Latteland wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget tesla's can charge on ccs in europe too.

Only on the low power "AC" version of CCS, this is limited to 17KW, and so is quite slow in comparison to the high power DC CCS-2 adapter, which can (at least in theory) pump out 350kW. There are quite a few 150kW stations already available, but the Tesla can't use them either.

Tesla’s can use CHAdeMO with an adapter. In the States, there are still more Chademos than CCS, and most new DC Fast chargers have both CHAdeMO and CCS.

CHAdeMO is the better standard for fast charging, IMHO, since it allows bidirectional charging.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#377

Post by AshleyGrant »

romwell wrote: post #49
andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Indeed. For all the talk about "range anxiety", it is a real concern that only Tesla seems to be actively working towards eliminating. I've needed to drive across the country every year for the past 4 years, and allocating extra days to stop and charge was never an option. That's one aspect where my cheap Honda beats most electric vehicles. For EV to go truly mainstream, that should not be the case.

Electrify America is actively working to build out a DC Fast Charging network: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/locate-charger

Here's some quotes from their plan:

"Electrify America is investing in roughly 900 charging stations across the United States by mid-2019. These stations have multiple dispensers with more than 5,000 charging ports available."

"Electrify America’s DC Fast EV charging stations will be located along high-traffic corridors in 39 states, including two cross-country routes. Locations will accommodate between four and ten chargers, with charging power levels up to 350kW available at every station, capable of adding 20 miles of range per minute to a vehicle. Nationally, each planned station site will be located no more than 120 miles apart and, on key East and West Coast highways, planned locations average only 70 miles apart."

Don't get me wrong. There are gaps in their planned build-out, but they should be able to quickly build out to a point where their charging network suffices for the vast majority of Americans typical long distance driving needs. For everything else, rental cars are still an option, and the future should bring even more DCFC infrastructure build-out.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#378

Post by mikestew »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #365
SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you should consider yourself very privileged. Not everyone is in your position.

The person I was responding to was expressing gratitude at having the opportunity to earn 150% ones normal wage per hour. My point is that it’s not enough to offset the opportunity cost. If anything, employers should be discourage from asking for overtime pay at all, and make it 10x regular pay or something instead of 1.5x so that people can enjoy a better work life balance.

The person I was responding to was expressing gratitude at having the opportunity to earn 150% ones normal wage per hour.

You working salary at your local tech whatever? How much are they paying you to come in on Saturday? I ask because you seem to have missed the point.

And 1.5x is the employer discouragement. Who wants to pay 50% more because of poor planning?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#379

Post by Robotbeat »

user9995 wrote: post #349
jread wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at To the contrary, user…

> Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there. So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations? So many contradictions in the arguments here. Yes, the Supercharger network was, basically, necessary for Tesla to reach a critical acceptance level. But operating and maintaining those sta…

The problem is they aren’t doing it. The ones who are are charging about the same price (or often higher!) for electricity that you would spend for gas (per mile) while even the Supercharger users who have to pay end up spending almost half the price as they would for gas.

If you don’t have an electric car (I have two, a Volt with no quickcharge and a Leaf with a quick charge), it’s hard to understand just how strong Tesla’s position in the market is here. It’ll probably be a decade before others catch up. Less if they partner with Tesla.

But here’s the thing: the market for electric cars is enormous, as big as the market for regular ICE cars. It’s not a niche. That’s why the “Tesla killer” argument is dumb: if your target is Tesla, you’ll lose because you’ll always be behind, fighting over a niche that Tesla created. Because Tesla wasn’t targeting other EVs, or even hybrids, they are targeting the entire market. If your target is ICE vehicles, then you may win because there will be plenty of market to go around.

The only chance to beat Tesla is to beat ICE cars.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#380

Post by dragontamer »

706f6f70 wrote: post #265
dragontamer wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno. Its not yet a yearly profit. Its a quarterly profit (which is good for sure!!) but they're -$1.5 Billion from Q1 and Q2 so far. So they're likely going to be very negative on this year.

Agree. A lot of the numbers seem suspicious as well, mostly in the expense around salaries. Time will tell if these are sustainable.

The only thing suspicious to me is the number of executives who have left the company in Q3. Why would they leave if the numbers were going to be good?
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