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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#191

Post by SilasX »

adventured wrote: post #180
kllrnohj wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

> US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? The parent comment said "cars." You switched that to consumer auto sales. 6.3 million passenger cars were sold in the US in 2017. With passenger car sales declining and generally losing popularity in the US (dropping from 7.9m in 2014), it's plausible that 500,000 will in fact be "almost" 10…

In common parlance, an SUV counts in "all cars sold", so it's misleading, even if technically correct.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#192

Post by gonehome »

paulpauper wrote: post #172

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of t…

In hindsight Elon’s frustration with the negative press makes sense since he’s seeing these numbers along the way. Though he did end up making things worse, but I would probably find the negative press frustrating too.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#193

Post by gamblor956 »

shroom wrote: post #59

Great news but I have to ask. Maybe someone here can share their view/opinion about the market and what’s going on. Musk can’t tweet about going private. So a major short seller sue him and Tesla. Stock ”crash” during two months. Short seller completly turn around and now long the stock which rises A DAY before this report? Eyebrows should be raised so high everyone go bald. Where Will this end with SEC? And How is t…

The problem wasn't that Musk can't tweet about going private. The problem was that he made a false claim about planning to go private in a direct and bald-faced attempt to manipulate the stock to the detriment of short-sellers.

As a CEO in charge of the company, he doesn't get to lie to the public, his shareholders, or putative shareholders, about what he plans to do. He doesn't have to tell them everything--but he absolutely cannot lie to them.

A shortseller not connected to the company isn't in the same position. Since they're not a company insider, they don't have any knowledge of what the company is doing and others follow their advice at their own risk. It's only a problem when they make false claims that aren't supportable by data or reasonable (if not necessarily accurate) analysis.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#194

Post by RivieraKid »

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

They've only lost if TSLA is not overvalued. (The "us vs them" mentality is really tiring by the way.) The Q3 numbers don't significantly change expected future cashflows. Don't forget that they've tried really hard to make the numbers look as good as possible, they've pulled every trick they could think of.

I've been quite bearish on Tesla and Q3 changed my mind to some extent. But, it's just one data point, people are biased to extrapolate short-term trends. Does Q3 really change our understanding of Tesla's financial situation?

This is a good big picture analysis (the author is very knowledgable about equity valuation, check him out on wikipedia): http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2018/06/twists-and-turns...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#195

Post by radiorental »

octorian wrote: post #155
radiorental wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure every Nissan dealer that sells a leaf must operate a charging station. Granted they're not as easy to access at the supercharger network... but it exists.

And how the heck does a charging station, at a car dealership in the middle of a city, actually help you when you're on a highway trying to actually drive between cities?

Two things

First, I said they're not as accessible.

Second, not all journeys are between cities. In fact...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#196

Post by radiorental »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #114
radiorental wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure every Nissan dealer that sells a leaf must operate a charging station. Granted they're not as easy to access at the supercharger network... but it exists.

They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Not to mention, many dealers only have 1-2 chargers total, which is not sustainable for the number of cars that are (or will be) sold. Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? They wouldn't be comfortable or possibly even welcome at a Nissan dealership to charg…

> Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs?

Only teslas can charge on the supercharger network afaik. And, Nissan dealers will let other manufacturers car's charge if you pay, ymmv but it happens.

Listen, I'm not defending Nissan's setup, I'm just countering the point that there's only the supercharger network.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#197

Post by tanderson92 »

mandeepj wrote: post #186
fancyfish wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They take the "official" accounting earnings and add back in charges they either 1) don't feel represent the true financial position or 2) are one-off charges. In this case they back out stock-based compensation (like most companies), turning GAAP earnings of $311m into adjusted earnings of $516m. Voila!

It can also include the fines payable after settlement with SEC

Worth noting that Tesla didn't really experience those losses due its special stock issuance to Musk to cover the portion of the fine that was due to Tesla. The only material effect to Tesla's corporate finances from that debacle was Musk now has more concentrated equity ownership of the company.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#198

Post by Reason077 »

zie wrote: post #99
nightski wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If EV wins and they can no longer collect all that juicy tax revenue from gas - how are they going to afford to maintain infrastructure? They collect far more than 20bn in revenue from fuel taxes.

They will just move the tax to the Tesla Superchargers and the other electric charging stations. Alternatively they could tax it at the DMV level, like they already do to some extent. i.e. instead of a $100 registration fee every year, it will be a $500 registration fee. I'm going to guess it will be a mix of both, but the govt(s) will be slow to do either, until they realize, too late, that they didn't meet their in…

Applying a tax at EV charge points wouldn't work well because most charging happens at home. It's difficult to distinguish electricity used to charge an EV from that used elsewhere in the home.

I suspect most states/countries will eventually adopt a combination of higher annual registration fees and mileage-based road user charges.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#199

Post by eloff »

jacques_chester wrote: post #182
eloff wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the index. Basically Tesla has always been the underdog and tons of people are itching to see them fail. So watching them succeed against the odds and the naysayers getting burned is quite satisfying - just speaking from a human story perspective.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I think Tesla is fine. But I think Musk is a bit of a wanker and I have an allergic reaction to the hero-worship that's grown around him.

Musk has his faults for sure, and he really needs some people reviewing his twitter posts before they go live.

But I find it amusing that people are so quick to point out his faults and criticize the guy when he's accomplished more in his life to date than any single one of his critics, with at most a couple exceptions, like Bezos.

Basically if he's a wanker, what's that make you? I don't think it's fallacious reasoning here at all to say that. Basically your standards for a non-wanker must be so high as to include almost nobody. I'm not just talking about his financial success, I'm talking about changing the world for the better with his companies, for raising 5 children, etc. The guy has his faults, but so do we all. If he's a wanker, than really who isn't?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#200

Post by Reason077 »

kllrnohj wrote: post #169
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019.

But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document:

"The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

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