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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#181

Post by xienze »

bsder wrote: post #168
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. Is that really feasible? That's roughly BMW and Mercedes combined in the US. It's really easy to forget on the West Coast of the US that BWM, Mercedes and the like are actually rare in the rest of the country.

What? Define “rare”. If you’re in any reasonably-sized metro I’d be quite shocked if a day goes by where the average person doesn’t see a BMW or Mercedes.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#182

Post by jacques_chester »

eloff wrote: post #121
threeseed wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

Because it's one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the index. Basically Tesla has always been the underdog and tons of people are itching to see them fail. So watching them succeed against the odds and the naysayers getting burned is quite satisfying - just speaking from a human story perspective.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I think Tesla is fine.

But I think Musk is a bit of a wanker and I have an allergic reaction to the hero-worship that's grown around him.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#183

Post by simonebrunozzi »

antisthenes wrote: post #27
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

Right! Lots more details here (and good comparison of the two): https://www.dnkpower.com/teslas-mass-production-21700-batter...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#184

Post by ChuckMcM »

dev_dull wrote: post #38
ChuckMcM wrote: post #19

They have to be happy with those numbers, interesting question of whether they continue to sell the S,X,3's and generate a pile of cash before they start burning it on model Y development. In general it should also muzzle a lot of the nay sayers, it isn't easy to lie about money in the bank. Solar City is a disappointment. I keep watching the solar roof tile business to see if that goes anywhere. I'm getting close to…

Just a heads up. Make sure you get both solar and powerwall at the same time if you don’t yet already have solar. I learned the hard way about the additional cost associated with replacing the ac inverter. Here we’re mandated by the city to be connected to the grid at ~$10 a month, which (along with net metering) pretty much disincentives a powerwall.

I was early to the solar thing, I put in a 5kW system in 2002[1] and we've replace one of the inverters when it failed with a single 6kW inverter. So any Powerwall install is going to be either in addition to that, or as part of a re-engineer to replace the panels with new panels that have more power for the same footprint.

When you say 'mandated by the city' do you mean to say that you can't get a permit to put up solar unless you grid tie it? And if so does your power company allow for an even 'watts in vs watts out' scheme?

[1] And yes it has paid for itself and is nominally cash flow positive at this point.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#185

Post by gamblor956 »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #95
crwalker wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…

Other carmakers don't need to build their own charging network. It's already being handled for them by thousands of businesses installing standards-compatible chargers. There are 3 new chargers on my block that were installed within the last month. Another 6 scheduled to be installed in my building's garage in the next month. That's in addition to the dozens that are already located in my part of LA. In Santa Monica, the city installed several dozen chargers in their city parking structures and lots. The Inglewood Stadium and the Dodgers are installing chargers in the off-season. Most malls have dedicated spots for charging EVs. Nearly every parking structure in Century City has EV chargers....

Meanwhile, the closest Tesla superchargers are nearly double-digit miles away, far from the freeways, so at best 30 minutes away without traffic and up to 3 hours away with traffic. And since there are so few of them, you basically cross your fingers and hope that one of them is free when you get there.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#186

Post by mandeepj »

fancyfish wrote: post #72
tardo99 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are "adjusted" earnings?

They take the "official" accounting earnings and add back in charges they either 1) don't feel represent the true financial position or 2) are one-off charges. In this case they back out stock-based compensation (like most companies), turning GAAP earnings of $311m into adjusted earnings of $516m. Voila!

It can also include the fines payable after settlement with SEC

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#187

Post by btilly »

dragontamer wrote: post #136
Dwolb wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost there but not out of the woods yet. Good: $1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables Bad: $2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

$2 Billion? I'm only aware of the $920 Million due in March 2019. Is there another major bond worth discussing? > $1.2B increase in payables That's a yearly increase. $500M-ish increase between Q2 -> Q3. I think its reasonable to expect payables to go up as they ramp up from 2000 M3/week to 4000 M3/week, but the number still gives me worry. I think you're right to worry about these numbers. But its important to worry…

Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding

Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then.

By my count this totals $4.1805 billion. They claim to currently have $3 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand. But there are various outstanding liabilities.

Given a GAAP profit in the $300 million+ range this quarter, and a projected European market twice the size of the American one, this may all be doable. But it is still a balancing act.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#188

Post by gonehome »

kllrnohj wrote: post #175
nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

> and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla Tesla has the worst fit & finish in the industry. It always comes up with every tear down & deep review of a Tesla car. Tesla's powertrain is largely the only thing they are good at, and has so far been the thing other car manufacturers have struggled to match.

Their software with OTA is best in class with nobody even close, their self driving tech is also the best with Cruise coming in second (but including all the other negatives of GM).

The seats they’re making in house now are also very comfortable and I like the minimalist interior of the 3, but that’s personal preference. The buying experience was also nice not having to deal with dealers.

Their power train and supercharger infrastructure is awesome but it’s not the only thing they’re good at.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#189

Post by philipkglass »

nightski wrote: post #63
bjelkeman-again wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the cars, but the fuel. “America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies. Abolish them” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...

If EV wins and they can no longer collect all that juicy tax revenue from gas - how are they going to afford to maintain infrastructure? They collect far more than 20bn in revenue from fuel taxes.

Check odometer readings as a requirement of renewing the vehicle's registration. Assess a fee as a function of vehicle weight per axle and distance traveled. Sure, at the state level there will be some missed edge cases (what if I am registered in Washington but do most of my driving in Idaho?), but it should be close enough. It's basically fair and way less invasive/expensive than GPS-based tracking for road use.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#190

Post by ProfessorLayton »

adventured wrote: post #180
kllrnohj wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

> US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? The parent comment said "cars." You switched that to consumer auto sales. 6.3 million passenger cars were sold in the US in 2017. With passenger car sales declining and generally losing popularity in the US (dropping from 7.9m in 2014), it's plausible that 500,000 will in fact be "almost" 10…

I suppose if US passenger car sales, a segment the Model 3 & S belong to, decline by 1/3 in 2019 that statement could ring true.
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