Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#41

Post by marvin » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:21 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #19

They have to be happy with those numbers, interesting question of whether they continue to sell the S,X,3's and generate a pile of cash before they start burning it on model Y development. In general it should also muzzle a lot of the nay sayers, it isn't easy to lie about money in the bank. Solar City is a disappointment. I keep watching the solar roof tile business to see if that goes anywhere. I'm getting close to…

Could you expand on why you think SolarCity is a disappointment? To be sure, they're slow developing and rolling out their product in volume, but your last sentence points out the massive strategic disadvantage a lot of utilities might have in a few years.

To me, this seems very promising for a company developing tech that can be used, to a significant degree even through software/policy changes, to greatly reduce grid dependency. If utilities keep squeezing adopters of renewable energy by charging ridiculous connection fees, there's a significant risk they will have a nasty surprise once storage adoption is high enough.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#42

Post by cs702 » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:21 PM UTC

It appears Tesla shorts have lost.

* Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive.

* $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consistent with reported free cash flow. Tesla no longer seems to be facing a cash crunch in the near term.

Very impressive.

It remains to be seen whether this kind of profitability is sustainable, especially as more competition enters the market for EVs... but for now, Musk, his team, and his shareholders are looking like big winners.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#43

Post by greglindahl » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

beatgammit wrote: post #26

Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

I'm sure a lot of that will go away as their manufacturing process settles down. I like the recent announcement that they're going to simplify interior options, and that tells me that they're taking a look at optimizing their process. Simplifying the process means better quality control, which means more predictability, which means less stress for employees. I'd love to see them get on par with other car manufacturer…

They're simplifying the Model X interior choices, that's a lower-volume model. Model 3's only interior option is color, black or white.

Tesla is not planning to get on par with manufacturers that outsource a lot more than Tesla does. In fact their new Chinese factory is planned to be even worse, because it will produce battery cells and car motors in-house.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#44

Post by sliken » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #31

antisthenes wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead of the 26650, which has a larger diameter.

Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh, peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people driving real cars on real roads.

So sure in theory batteries with more surface area would have greater package efficiencies. So far nobody has managed to.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#45

Post by deepGem » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere

Disclaimer: I am long TSLA

I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the dealers and roll this ouut fast.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#46

Post by tardo99 » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

kumarm wrote: post #3

Congrats to Tesla and Musk. The numbers are just insane: "The electric car-maker reported adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share on revenue of $6.82 billion, exceeding average analyst expectations of losses of 15 cents per share on revenue of $6.32 billion."

What are "adjusted" earnings?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#47

Post by morsma » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:24 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #34

smogcutter wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the electric revolution requires a federal subsidy to compete then it has not, in fact, arrived.

By that logic the gasoline engine has not yet arrived either.

Does gasoline engines receive subsidies? I just bought a brand new ICE vehicle, and I'd sure like to know when my check arrives...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#48

Post by 40acres » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:26 PM UTC

Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead the way.

Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric cars are still valid. Tesla is a really nice example of there being a problem that is both in the interest of the public and private sector to solve, and those sectors working together to innovate.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#49

Post by romwell » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:28 PM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Indeed.

For all the talk about "range anxiety", it is a real concern that only Tesla seems to be actively working towards eliminating.

I've needed to drive across the country every year for the past 4 years, and allocating extra days to stop and charge was never an option. That's one aspect where my cheap Honda beats most electric vehicles. For EV to go truly mainstream, that should not be the case.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#50

Post by bjelkeman-again » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 9:28 PM UTC

morsma wrote: post #47

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that logic the gasoline engine has not yet arrived either.

Does gasoline engines receive subsidies? I just bought a brand new ICE vehicle, and I'd sure like to know when my check arrives...

Not the cars, but the fuel. “America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies. Abolish them” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...