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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#91

Post by saagarjha »

Mongus wrote: post #86
olivermarks wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#92

Post by _ea1k »

I feel like the way that the press reports on corporate earnings in general is in bad need of an overhaul. There is a lot of talk in here about "rare" profits and the needs for financing, but little about why that might be the case.

Does the reporter genuinely believe that a business like Tesla could be built without doing those things? If you had to recreate Tesla from scratch tomorrow, how much would it cost? And wouldn't you have even bigger loans and debt than the business does?

There is just so much context that is not merely left out, but replaced with confusion.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#93

Post by calyth2018 »

Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

And their exec level is still a revolving door. I wouldn't pop the champagne yet.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#95

Post by andrewmunsell »

crwalker wrote: post #40
andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initial Supercharger build out.

But other car manufacturers, for whatever reason, don't get this. They build their compliance cars with a modest investment in EVs, but honestly, they aren't very good. The Leaf has its niche-- it's a good city car with low range and low cost. The Bolt really is one of the first non-Tesla players with a decent range, yet you can't drive it from Seattle to Yosemite because the lack of chargers and GM isn't investing anything in them. The same goes for BMW.

Volkswagen is forced to build chargers due to the diesel settlement, but ironically without their cheating and forced investment in EV, there would be fewer chargers out there than there are today (or in the near future).

Maybe I'm wrong and hydrogen or some other form of fuel will win, but if EVs do, car manufacturers will be scrambling to catch up and invest in chargers. I don't think this will happen soon, but maybe in 5 years they'll start thinking about it. Really, if they wait until the Model Y in 2020 and Tesla starts eating their lunch in the biggest segment in the US (CUVs), it might wake them up sooner.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#96

Post by mediaman »

threeseed wrote: post #71
synaesthesisx wrote: post #57

Amazing results - I am especially taking great pleasure in watching the shorts get decimated. The Model 3 is a game-changer for the masses. I walked past 6 of them just on my way to get coffee this morning. We're truly witnessing the EV revolution.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

Everyone's got shorts, but Tesla's short position as percent of float is very high, at almost 29%. GM, for example, is under 2%, and Ford around 3%. That makes it a material point of discussion.

Second, yes, they are probably hedged. But usually they hedge against correlated securities such as industry competitors so they can hedge away risk they don't want to take (i.e., they have a position against Tesla, but no position about car sales in general, so they hedge against the rest of the industry to protect themselves against economic growth raising all car sales). So if Tesla reports good numbers relative to the industry, it will absolutely impact shorts and they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. What else would they be hedging with? Maybe their bonds, if you had some sort of complicated capital structure arbitrage play, but I haven't seen much of a case being made about the bonds being undervalued relative to equity.

Having said that, I think shorts play an important role in the economy to keep companies honest.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#97

Post by synaesthesisx »

threeseed wrote: post #71
synaesthesisx wrote: post #57

Amazing results - I am especially taking great pleasure in watching the shorts get decimated. The Model 3 is a game-changer for the masses. I walked past 6 of them just on my way to get coffee this morning. We're truly witnessing the EV revolution.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

Many of them are funded by big oil - and have been spreading FUD in an attempt to manipulate the price. Tesla is the one of the most shorted companies on the market today.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/24/tesla-troll-short-doxxed-oil-...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#98

Post by rconti »

crwalker wrote: post #40
andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

I sure hope it does become a commodity! However, Tesla's network is not a disadvantage here; they can charge (just not FAST charge) from other chargers, and the fast charging can be 'bolted on' later, I'm sure, via an adapter and software update.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#99

Post by zie »

nightski wrote: post #63
bjelkeman-again wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the cars, but the fuel. “America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies. Abolish them” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...

If EV wins and they can no longer collect all that juicy tax revenue from gas - how are they going to afford to maintain infrastructure? They collect far more than 20bn in revenue from fuel taxes.

They will just move the tax to the Tesla Superchargers and the other electric charging stations. Alternatively they could tax it at the DMV level, like they already do to some extent. i.e. instead of a $100 registration fee every year, it will be a $500 registration fee.

I'm going to guess it will be a mix of both, but the govt(s) will be slow to do either, until they realize, too late, that they didn't meet their income goals on fuel taxes last year and suddenly have a shortfall in the budget :)

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#100

Post by rconti »

saagarjha wrote: post #91
Mongus wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?

No, but the point is that this is not a reason Tesla won't succeed, it's just a reason that superchargers suck for non-Tesla EV owners. From a business standpoint, this is the right place to be; lock others out, but don't lock your customers in.
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