Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#131

Post by gfodor » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:08 AM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #103

azeotropic wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways. Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be good to be dependent on the parents for everything when cooped up in an exurban paradise.

Kids used to ride bicycles everywhere, but they don't anymore. The gating function isn't the capacity for kids to transport themselves around.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#132

Post by sfifs » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:10 AM UTC

jblow wrote: post #57

sfifs wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the obvious answer is parking spots will need to get electrified. Most new condos where I live already come with enough electrical provision pre-planned to electrify parking spots if needed and old ones are considering adding provisions. Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging, so smart plug based billing will likely be the way these things will go. Since electric cars A…

> Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging citation needed

Sure here

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-charging-installation#out...

Most home electricity installations have circuit breakers @ 15 Amps where I live. Wiring typically rated to a max 20 Amps draw before overheating. At a below 15 Amps current draw levels, you'll required an inordinate number of hours of charging for getting mileage on the battery and it's just not practical.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#133

Post by perl4ever » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:11 AM UTC

srtjstjsj wrote: post #52

sandworm101 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. In how many years? Tossing cars on the junk pile every few years is an environmental nightmare. Who is taking these cars off your hands? I buy cars to keep. I demand that any car last at least 10 years, preferable 15+ without major work. My current Honda is nine years old. My last car ('92 BMW 325is) lasted twenty years. So I am very skeptical about advice regar…

The used car market exists. EV car batteries last at least 7 years, in theory and in the 2010 cars still on the road. After 7 years, they need a battery replacement (similar to how an ICE car needs engine work, just a one-shot replacement instead of lots of minor maintenance and repairs), and the old batteries are easily refurbished into other kinds of batteries (like home backup batteries) where charge-per-unit-weig…

The average car in the US is said to be older than 7 years, and ICE powered cars do not normally need a new engine at that point. Cars are usually scrapped at 14 years or more, I believe.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#134

Post by Zanni » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:12 AM UTC

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

Range will solve this issue. For 18 months I charged my Tesla at Whole Foods, Target, etc, at a paltry 20mph charge rate. When my commute was 40+ miles round trip, that meant I had to charge a couple of times a week for multiple hours. Very frustrating. But when I got my weekly miles under my max range (180 miles) and started using a near-ish high-speed charger, I'd just catch a movie once a week, and my car would be fully charged for the week by the time I was through. A high-speed charger is enough to put 300-400 miles on an EV while you watch an average movie, if they have that capacity.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#135

Post by perl4ever » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:13 AM UTC

srtjstjsj wrote: post #56

ad_hominem wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the only thing. How about having to drop ~$8K every 6 years to buy all new batteries after the originals have severely degraded. I think battery tech has to improve quite a bit before EVs can truly overcome ICE vehicles in the mainstream.

It's already under $6K for a LEAF battery replacement. ICE drivers have to drop at least ~8K every 6 years for gasoline and engine maintenance and repair. And "severely degraded" is -30% capacity, not really severe except in the older lowest-capacity batteries. https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-repl...

I don't think it makes sense to count the cost of gasoline for an ICE while not counting the cost of electricity for an electric.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#136

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:14 AM UTC

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

[deleted]

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#137

Post by perl4ever » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:18 AM UTC

aerodude wrote: post #125

blt wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but long trips are so rare in most people's lives. perhaps we will start renting gas cars for long trips. similarly, most people own small-ish cars and rent a u-haul when they need to carry big objects.

For the majority of people, a car is a utility item; car buyers tend to price in the worst case scenario when buying a new vehicle. Statistical arguments don't really work in these cases, because even if an EV covers 90% of your use case, if the 10% is critical, the EV isn't an option. As an example, a tradie who runs their own business might very well rack up enough hours driving that an EV just wouldn't work for th…

"because even if an EV covers 90% of your use case, if the 10% is critical, the EV isn't an option."

If we did the sensible thing and taxed energy until people chose the efficient option, I believe plug-in hybrids would take over.

Electric car enthusiasts are instinctively against the added complexity of a gas engine, but it's countered by the substantially reduced amount of battery capacity needed and the fact that now 100% of the use cases are covered.

I believe that a large carbon or energy tax combined with otherwise laissez faire policy would have the major benefit of getting people to do the efficient thing rather than the ideological or emotional thing.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#138

Post by richardw » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:18 AM UTC

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

NYC seems like a good place to have autonomous electric taxis. No ownership, no streetside storage. When battery drops, it goes home and swaps with a charged-up car.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#139

Post by HarryHirsch » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:22 AM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #131

HarryHirsch wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be good to be dependent on the parents for everything when cooped up in an exurban paradise.

Kids used to ride bicycles everywhere, but they don't anymore. The gating function isn't the capacity for kids to transport themselves around.

Suburbs used to be higher density, but in any sprawling development that went up in the last 15 years nothing is within cycling distance any longer. The vain hope is that easier transportation fixes that issue.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#140

Post by gbear605 » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 3:26 AM UTC

GW150914 wrote: post #62

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

In the case of digital cameras, the driving forces were varied, from governments wanting better means to spy and drop bombs, the film industry looking for a replacement tech, dedicated hobbyists seeing the benefits and getting on board. I can think of two parallels in electric vehicles, namely high performance applications which love the insane torque, low center of gravity, and diminished complexity compared to some…

Another driving force, perhaps the biggest driving force, is ecological. A very significant fraction of people today would, all else equal, choose electric cars over gasoline for the benefit to the environment. And all else is gradually becoming more equal. As you implied, the biggest remaining hurdle is the battery size. But for many people, it’s already good enough, and for many of the rest it will probably be shortly.