Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#41

Post by sfifs » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:37 AM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #23

My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense (cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the block?

Well the obvious answer is parking spots will need to get electrified. Most new condos where I live already come with enough electrical provision pre-planned to electrify parking spots if needed and old ones are considering adding provisions.

Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging, so smart plug based billing will likely be the way these things will go. Since electric cars ARE becoming cheaper economically for city use, this likely WILL happen. Accelerating the trend will be the fact that property prices will go up/down depending on availability of electric charging - so big property owners will start making these investments since there's no lack of capital among them.

Basically, these tipping point things don't necessarily happen because of "activism" but happen when economics cause a runaway effect (think spread of mobile connectivity for another example) - so to that extent Tesla is pushing in the right direction by trying to get economics right.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#42

Post by ced » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:37 AM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #23

My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense (cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the block?

They make a lot of sense for shared ownership. In my city, there's a cooperative running a fleet of cars, similar to bike sharing programs, with dedicated parking spots that have electricity.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#43

Post by srtjstjsj » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:39 AM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #23

My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense (cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the block?

If you have a car in the city, you should park in your building's parking garage, not in the street. The problem is that residential street parking is overused.

In the street, you charge at a meter, the same place you put in your payment. http://www.rolecserv.com/ev-charging/product/EV-Charging-Str...

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#44

Post by toomuchtodo » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:39 AM UTC

jgibson wrote: post #36

toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fun that EVs are going to be the "sleeper" in transforming the energy grid; California needs tons of energy storage in order to transition entirely to renewables, and those EVs everyone is buying are a perfect compliment. A million Teslas on the road in California would be over 10GW of controllable charging load (roughly 10 stationary storage facilities PG&E is currently building with Tesla), and a more optimal…

Maybe. The battery chemistry for a car vs stationary storage differs greatly. Stationary storage they optimised for ability to hold charge for long periods of time, and not loose capacity over time. Car batteries optimised for weight and charging speed. If you cycled your car battery every night with the grid it wouldn't last all that long. Maybe it won't make a difference in the long run with how many EVs we have th…

Tesla has a pilot program in the Netherlands.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla-controllable-charge-loa...

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#45

Post by zizee » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:39 AM UTC

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improved enough for it to be good enough for happy-snaps. The serious photographers then moved the goalposts to "proper photographers" won't use them because of reason X. From that point the transition was very rapid.

I see the same arguments being made about electric cars. "The batteries are no good in really cold climates", "They'll not a good replacement as I cannot drive 1000 km in one stetch", "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street".

There are so many obvious benefits of electric cars, as soon as they are close to cost competitive, I bet the transition for new car sales will happen much quicker than many people realize and the infrastructure will quickly follow once the market has spoken.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#46

Post by elihu » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:39 AM UTC

madengr wrote: post #16

CalChris wrote: post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

Ditto. I’m driving a Leaf and will never buy an ICE car again. In the article, I’m surprised the EVs are about the same sales as hybrids. I figured there would still be more hybrid sales.

Same here, I thought hybrids were a lot bigger market. I'm surprised that ~90% of cars sold are still non-hybrid ICE cars. (I don't live in California, but I assume their numbers are fairly representative of the rest of the US.)

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#47

Post by blt » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:41 AM UTC

jimmaswell wrote: post #14

cowmix wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range more than charging times. With EVs (and if you have a charger) waking up with a 'full tank' is pretty amazing... something ICE auto can never experience.

And an electric car owner won't experience being low on charge and filling up in less than one minute, unless battery swapping schemes come to fruition. Dealbreaker to me being stuck charging for hours (or even overnight if I only have 110) if the batteries are low.

but long trips are so rare in most people's lives. perhaps we will start renting gas cars for long trips. similarly, most people own small-ish cars and rent a u-haul when they need to carry big objects.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#48

Post by pankajdoharey » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:42 AM UTC

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Digital Cameras really became popular in 90's with webcams. Then more popular with Mobiles.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#49

Post by Merad » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:42 AM UTC

I don’t see EVs taking off for average Americans until there’s an exponential increase in charging infrastructure. I live in a place where it would make great sense to have an EV (only commute 12 miles each day), but I can’t charge at home (townhouse) and I’m not aware of any chargers in my immediate area. There’s also the issue of travel, meaning an EV can’t really be your only car or else you need to be prepared to rent any time you go on a trip.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#50

Post by philipkglass » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 12:42 AM UTC

jgibson wrote: post #36

toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fun that EVs are going to be the "sleeper" in transforming the energy grid; California needs tons of energy storage in order to transition entirely to renewables, and those EVs everyone is buying are a perfect compliment. A million Teslas on the road in California would be over 10GW of controllable charging load (roughly 10 stationary storage facilities PG&E is currently building with Tesla), and a more optimal…

Maybe. The battery chemistry for a car vs stationary storage differs greatly. Stationary storage they optimised for ability to hold charge for long periods of time, and not loose capacity over time. Car batteries optimised for weight and charging speed. If you cycled your car battery every night with the grid it wouldn't last all that long. Maybe it won't make a difference in the long run with how many EVs we have th…

Most EVs charge daily. The idea is that you can update charging rate/time to match e.g. wind power output, which tends to peak late night/early morning. Dispatchable load is nearly as useful as dispatchable supply for balancing the grid. Discharging the battery to power the household would be a bad idea outside of emergencies, due to the capacity loss you note.