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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#51

The only thing holding back EVs are/were batteries/charging times. Aside from that they're easier to maintain and perform better — on paper they're loads more practical.

That's not the only thing. How about having to drop ~$8K every 6 years to buy all new batteries after the originals have severely degraded.

I think battery tech has to improve quite a bit before EVs can truly overcome ICE vehicles in the mainstream.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#52
post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

>>> I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. In how many years? Tossing cars on the junk pile every few years is an environmental nightmare. Who is taking these cars off your hands? I buy cars to keep. I demand that any car last at least 10 years, preferable 15+ without major work. My current Honda is nine years old. My last car ('92 BMW 325is) lasted twenty years. So I am very skeptical about advice regar…

The used car market exists.

EV car batteries last at least 7 years, in theory and in the 2010 cars still on the road. After 7 years, they need a battery replacement (similar to how an ICE car needs engine work, just a one-shot replacement instead of lots of minor maintenance and repairs), and the old batteries are easily refurbished into other kinds of batteries (like home backup batteries) where charge-per-unit-weight-and-volume is less critical than in a car.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#53

My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense (cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the block?

If you have a car in the city, you should park in your building's parking garage, not in the street. The problem is that residential street parking is overused. In the street, you charge at a meter, the same place you put in your payment. http://www.rolecserv.com/ev-charging/product/EV-Charging-Str...

> you should park in your building's parking garage, not in the street

Let them eat cake, in other words?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#54
I have read there will be two stages here. First the cars will get cheap enough, and there will be enough charger stations, so they start to get bought in mass.

And when this goes far enough, it will send the ICE into a death spiral due to things like gas stations closing and fixed production costs per car getting too high because they are spread over too few sold cars. Also people will be won't be willing to spend as much for a given ICE model because they see the future trends and know it will not bring as much when later sold used.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#55
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? A normal car costs something like $30k. Electric cars don't cost $150-180k.

If you're a lifelong buyer of used cars, the perception matches pretty closely. I've never bought a car for more than $4000 (and FWIW the used buys I've made have had a minimum reliable life of 5 years, and max repair costs before abandonment of another $4k). I don't know what the used EV market is like right now. I don't remember seeing any. Then again, EVs are relatively new and rarer than ICEVs so I wouldn't expec…

Any advice on models or tactics for buying a used car? I have been struggling to find something for nearly 2 months now. All I really need is inexpensive.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#56

The only thing holding back EVs are/were batteries/charging times. Aside from that they're easier to maintain and perform better — on paper they're loads more practical.

That's not the only thing. How about having to drop ~$8K every 6 years to buy all new batteries after the originals have severely degraded. I think battery tech has to improve quite a bit before EVs can truly overcome ICE vehicles in the mainstream.

It's already under $6K for a LEAF battery replacement. ICE drivers have to drop at least ~8K every 6 years for gasoline and engine maintenance and repair. And "severely degraded" is -30% capacity, not really severe except in the older lowest-capacity batteries.

https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-repl...

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#57
post #41

My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense (cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the block?

Well the obvious answer is parking spots will need to get electrified. Most new condos where I live already come with enough electrical provision pre-planned to electrify parking spots if needed and old ones are considering adding provisions. Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging, so smart plug based billing will likely be the way these things will go. Since electric cars A…

> Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging

citation needed

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#58

I wholeheartedly believe, in order for electric vehicles to survive in the US, we will need government intervention not just simply in car subsidy. We will need some sort of infrastructure subsidy to make this happen. Either give incentive to gas station or even corporate buildings. Companies that provide more charging stations for employees to charge their cars during work gets bigger tax cuts. Also, the US will nee…

I'd expect the utility/power companies to be on top of this, lobbying for it, already. Their centralized generation approach stands to gain as gasoline and the billion distributed combustion engines approach loses. It'd be in their self-interest to try to use their lobbying capabilities to accelerate that future.

It would be better to put the gasoline replacement tax on the utility companies and let them raise rates slightly to adjust for it. That's not only easier to do than building out a system for tracking & taxing all mileage in the US, it's also dramatically better for privacy reasons (as opposed to opening up another avenue for the government to invade our privacy by getting automated, mandated mileage tracking & reporting put into our electric vehicles). The US has relatively inexpensive energy prices, we can afford the slight increase in tax there, which would be offset by the erasure of the money spent on gasoline. The downside is, some will argue it's not fair to those not using electric vehicles on roads to be paying the tax increase (and that's correct, it's not a perfect tax distribution; it's an 85% good enough solution, that is a magnitude easier to implement and better for privacy).

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#59
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? A normal car costs something like $30k. Electric cars don't cost $150-180k.

If you're a lifelong buyer of used cars, the perception matches pretty closely. I've never bought a car for more than $4000 (and FWIW the used buys I've made have had a minimum reliable life of 5 years, and max repair costs before abandonment of another $4k). I don't know what the used EV market is like right now. I don't remember seeing any. Then again, EVs are relatively new and rarer than ICEVs so I wouldn't expec…

Look for a used Chevy Volt, you should be able to get it around 10K USD (2012-2014 models). I am not fan of Nissan Leaf earlier models given the range anxiety and their battery being air-cooled, which you can find for almost rock bottom prices.

Plug-in hybrids like Chevy Volt, Prius Prime and Pacifica PHEV are in my opinion real sleepers that do not get media love.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#60
Wake me up when I can get an electric two-seater like this [1] or this [2] for under ten grand. No A/C, no windows, no nothing, just a cool buggy to run errands and cruise all day in sunny Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/gQDPqOn.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/tCXxiRm.jpg

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