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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

bloomberg.com

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#71

Post by azeotropic »

stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways.

Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#72

Post by rlkf »

jblow wrote: post #57
sfifs wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the obvious answer is parking spots will need to get electrified. Most new condos where I live already come with enough electrical provision pre-planned to electrify parking spots if needed and old ones are considering adding provisions. Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging, so smart plug based billing will likely be the way these things will go. Since electric cars A…

> Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging citation needed

No need, because it is simply untrue: Electric vehicles can charge on anything from 1-ph 8A 240V, to 3-ph 32A 400V, all of which can easily be provided by common urban household wiring.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#73

Post by [deleted] »

SomewhatLikely wrote: post #37
rando444 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never is not the right word. I owned a natural gas combustion engine Honda Civic for a decade and refueled at home.

That's fascinating. Curious how the gas is stored. I remember for a while there was talk of fuel cells based on hydrogen, but safely storing the gas was problematic.

[deleted]

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#74

Post by Eric_WVGG »

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street"

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#75

Post by telchar »

Merad wrote: post #49

I don’t see EVs taking off for average Americans until there’s an exponential increase in charging infrastructure. I live in a place where it would make great sense to have an EV (only commute 12 miles each day), but I can’t charge at home (townhouse) and I’m not aware of any chargers in my immediate area. There’s also the issue of travel, meaning an EV can’t really be your only car or else you need to be prepared to…

I think you're underestimating the Tesla supercharger network. It basically solves both of those problems (if you have a Tesla) and live in the vicinity of one - if you don't live near one then it still solves the second issue.

The infrastructure is expanding rapidly, so your "unless" is a fairly safe bet.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#76

Post by ObsoleteNerd »

stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

I never thought of that. Are there the same moves in tiny electric hatchbacks (eg kei sized, not Leafs), scooters, mopeds, etc as there is currently in fullsize cars? I'd love a high quality electric moped to run down the shops and pick up milk and bread, or pick something up from the post office. All I've seen is those cheap plastic electric mopeds that people get from eBay/Aliexpress or Costco. I don't remember seeing anything of the big-name quality.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#77

Post by ad_hominem »

srtjstjsj wrote: post #56
ad_hominem wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the only thing. How about having to drop ~$8K every 6 years to buy all new batteries after the originals have severely degraded. I think battery tech has to improve quite a bit before EVs can truly overcome ICE vehicles in the mainstream.

It's already under $6K for a LEAF battery replacement. ICE drivers have to drop at least ~8K every 6 years for gasoline and engine maintenance and repair. And "severely degraded" is -30% capacity, not really severe except in the older lowest-capacity batteries. https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-repl...

Except along with that -30% capacity drop, there is also increased internal resistance in the battery that is also going to affect range (lower miles/kWh). It's not just -30% capacity = -30% range. E.g. this Leaf owner who, after 5 years, had -37% capacity but -50% effective range: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Nissa...

I won't dispute the $8K/6 years for ICE vehicles (although I am curious if that's legit) but if you look at the savings rate of the average American I think you'll see ICEs' steady expense rate of gas fillups, oil change, etc. suit it better than EVs' lower day-to-day but eventual massive hit.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#78

Post by trocadero »

woodandsteel wrote: post #40
pankajdoharey wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prices have to come down too. the Electric cars are 5-6 times more expensive than the normal cars. By cheap normal cars i meant Hyundai Accent which costs $14,995, Or Toyota Yaris $16000 or Chevrolet Sonic $20K or a ford fiesta $14K.

>The prices have to come down too. the Electric cars are 5-6 times more expensive than the normal cars. No they're not. More like 25%-50% more expensive, and the difference keeps narrowing.

Plus you have to look at the total operating cost. Electric cars need basically no maintenance while ICEs you have oil changes and brake changes plus a more complicated engine.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#79

Post by octorian »

GW150914 wrote: post #65
burlesona wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, I we may be at a point in time analogous to people in the early 2000's discussing the next revolution in PCs... and not really appreciating that the next revolution was going to be mobile. I think transportation is a lot more interesting than just cars - electric (and non-electric) cars will probably be part of the equation forever, but I suspect we're past peak car.

People have been saying that for a very long time, and every decade or two someone bets real money and loses horribly. I think the last time was Kamen thinking the Segway would change human transportation forever. Such visionaries tend to conveniently forget people who have families with kids, the price, and the fact that if their device can’t totally replace a car then it’s just an added expense many can’t afford.

This is why any half-measure is kinda a waste. The overhead to "rent something for the occasional need" is far more of a real-world hassle than people are willing to put up with.

Also, having kids dramatically changes what you need in a vehicle, in ways that make any ride-sharing or rental option a significantly greater pain than it would otherwise be.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#80

Post by Jill_the_Pill »

tormeh wrote: post #68
stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

I don't think so. A car is the most outwardly visible status/everything symbol you have. This is important, especially for men without a family. They're not going to want to be seen in a Renault Zoe or a scooter.

This old-fashioned attitude is worth changing then.
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