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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#101
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that…

First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done…

> It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly.

Hmm. This strikes me as somewhat implausible or at least uncharitable.

Are there other example of doing something as complex, in a 'new' field, at a scale to compete with incumbent operators AND vertically integrating both design and manufacture?

If one zooms out a little to place what Tesla is doing in context, or Musks 'performance', it doesn't seem they've been particularly bad per se, more that they've faced difficulties that are inevitable. It's somewhat of a testament to them 'doing well' and learning to do it pretty damn quickly that we here can continue to talk about how bad they continue to be - namely because they're still around and not dead and disbanded.

I may, of course, be talking rubbish seeing as I don't know much about this subject nor do I have a horse in the race. But it just strikes me that Tesla is doing something extraordinarily hard (I know about the logistics of supply chain management and that's hard enough in the auto industry) and being played out in public view with intense competition.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#102
post #61

That's impressive. I've read a great many analyses stating Musk'll never succeed in his model 3 ramp up. Let's hope he keeps this up in the coming months. It's a long way to 450.000 vehicles...

This means they're now making about 7,000 vehicles total per week (S+X+3), which means they'll make more vehicles in the next 12 months than they have made in the previous 10 years. I'd say they're ramping pretty fast! EDIT: 7,000 per week, not per month, thanks below.

Tesla pulled people from the S&X lines to reach their 5000 Model 3 goal. No way they also produced 2000 S&X cars in the past 7 days. In addition, their current death march schedule isn't sustainable. They won't come close to producing 7k cars in any week in July.

Tesla needs to spend billions in capex in order to get to 5000 M3 and beyond if they want to produce at a sustainable pace with acceptable quality. Billions they don't have.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#103

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios.

1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billion (down 90% from 2018).

2) The company has continued to stumble from failure to failure with just enough successes to delay the day of reckoning. Musk is still sleeping in the factory trying to iron out kinks in the manufacturing process and automation. They're producing 3000 cars per week, but the quality is so poor that 30% of cars must be returned to the factory for rework. Competitors are likely to match Tesla's battery technology in the next 3 years, and the company's market cap is down by 50% from 2018.

3) After many delays and billions of dollars of cost overruns, Tesla has perfected the "machine that builds the machine". It's producing 40,000 cars per week in three factories in the US, Europe and China, and a fourth factory in South Korea opens next year. Tesla is cash-flow positive and the company's market cap is $600B (up 10x from 2018). In hindsight, all the delays people anguished about in 2018 proved to be nothing but amusing anecdotes in the company's history.

I assign probabilities of 10%, 50% and 40% to these scenarios, which equates to an expected market cap of $250B in two years. At $60B today, it looks like a bargain.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#105

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Your comment reminded me about this article "The War on Tesla, Musk, and the Fight for the Future"

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/29/1767826/-The-War-...

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#106
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk has been quite endurant so far. It's possible tesla will keep up, or not. As long as tesla doesn't die i'd bet Musk will find a way to crank up the next stage.

endurant ?

sorry, frenchism, I meant endurent

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#107

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Musk's future compensation directly hinges on your third scenario (well market cap of $650 billion, but close enough!):

http://fortune.com/2018/03/22/elon-musk-compensation-tesla/

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#108

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Tesla is most overpriced startup currently on the market. It will crash in a spectacular way in near future. They are constatly missing deadlines, have quality issues, troubles to manufacture spare parts in sufficient quantity and have terrible work environment yet everybody are coming up with excuses for them. This will end at some point and that even beside the fact that electric car in reality create more pollution in vast majority of the world more than modern engines.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#109
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They timed production to maximize federal tax credits for US consumers.

Can you clarify, did Tesla announce this, or are you announcing this?

Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk has been quite endurant so far. It's possible tesla will keep up, or not. As long as tesla doesn't die i'd bet Musk will find a way to crank up the next stage.

One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not simply yell for one. Specifically, he should actually learn some things about managing people, and the place that has in producing quality at volume at speed. It's sad, because that's exactly the lesson Toyota was trying to teach at NUMMI, and their legacy has…

I didn't mean it this way. I believe Musk has enough self confidence and college education to think he can crack through things like he did with SpaceX (remember they almost died and now vertical reusable landing is almost the new normal). So if he manages to keep Tesla growing, he'll fix things on the way. Maybe he'll have time to read about Toyota :)
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