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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

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Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#101

Post by runeks »

jgh wrote: post #95
runeks wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting. Which political views? I read the article and only saw a view on money, not politics. What’s being criticized is the very idea that money should involve politics. The argument is that we should be as free to choose which kind of money we use as we are to choose which kind of car we use. There should be no law giving…

I wasn't referencing the article. There are a lot of people in the cryptocurrency community (spend some time in telegram rooms, reading blog posts, etc) that push a very libertarian/anarcho-capitalist agenda. I obviously don't think anything is wrong with using alternative currencies, but I'm not sure that separation of currency and state can happen the same way separation of church and state has. Even if the governm…

> I obviously don't think anything is wrong with using alternative currencies, but I'm not sure that separation of currency and state can happen the same way separation of church and state has. Even if the government doesn't control the issuance of currency they will undoubtedly have an outsized influence on whatever currency they choose to support.

I honestly don’t see the big difference: the people, by voting on representatives, choose both which religions and means of payment the government accepts (assuming a democracy, of course).

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#102

Post by huphelmeyer »

jerkstate wrote: post #31

Wow, I expected Mr. "I don't eat or drink anything that hasn't been around for 1000 years" to write a lot more negative on this. I completely agree with the statement that even if bitcoin itself fails, cryptocurrencies will ultimately succeed.

>"I don't eat or drink anything that hasn't been around for 1000 years"

He'd love our office fridge.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#103

Post by tenaciousDaniel »

hectorr1 wrote: post #68
tenaciousDaniel wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm legitimately interested in cryptocurrency; I think it's a really cool idea. So what I'm hoping for is that everything goes as horribly wrong as possible, the price tanks, everyone's dreams are smashed, and all the bullshit takes disappear. At that point, the people who are interested in building something worthwhile will be the only ones who remain, and we can work in peace.

When did you find out about cryptocurrency? Because this has already happened in 2014-2016. It happened before that too. Each time the speculative bubble rises, it is being driven at first by improvements to the tech and/or ecosystem. Then it gets a life of its own, goes crazy, and runs out of gas. But along the way, more people learn about it and decide they care enough to continue the project. Even if you are only…

I really got into it in a little over a year ago. I first heard about it about 4 years ago though. I'm sure there are ebbs and flows, but this time around does seem different, given that my tech-illiterate family members were asking me about it over the holidays.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it seems inescapable.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#104

Post by matthewbauer »

jebeng wrote: post #92
matthewbauer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes definitely. If you replace "Bitcoin" in this essay with "blockchain based assets", Taleb would have a fairly good point. But "Bitcoin" has been manipulated so much that I think most people recognize that a crash is inevitable. There is nothing special about Bitcoin-anyone can start their own blockchain. Bitcoin is just an overpriced version of the infinite possible blockchains.

I think you have it backwards here for the most part. What problems do you see infinite blockchains solving? No comment on whether or not a crash is inevitable, who knows where the price is going. That's not really too important to me. But the fact that Bitcoin is for now the most secure and technologically sound blockchain is what makes it interesting. And actually having those unique characteristics is what makes i…

Yes there’s definitely value in Bitcoins hash power and underlying technology. But the code is open source and easy to copy. There’s a team behind it that is definitely worth something for Bitcoin but they could certainly work on any blockchain (especially if it’s a Bitcoin fork).

I think forks are definitely the biggest concern for Bitcoin. I think most longterm holders arent realizing how big of a threat it is.

Bitcoin Cash is still around and can probably stay around for a long time reusing Cores work. Other forks will be less friendly and won’t preserve Bitcoins transaction history.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#105

Post by rargulati »

Payment processing and banking in the United States is woefully behind the rest of the world. Globally, the system is complex, obtuse, and fragmented enough to result in a shanty town of technological solutions that are just lipstick on a pig.

The hope here is that the introduction of blockchains and cryptocurrencies into public discourse, and public excitement regarding a digital mechanism to store and receive value might be the kick in the pants that the banks need to roll-out better banking tools and systems. Furthermore, the first bank to run a publicly auditable ledger which can be validated externally will set a precedent for transparency.

I'm not sure what the future of cryptocurrencies will be (though I'm bullish), but those would be huge wins for society.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#106

Post by qwz4233 »

_e wrote: post #86
soneca wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he just isn't a very good communicator (nor cares to be one). He was recently a guest at the excellent podcast Econtalk and you really needed to know his ideas from other sources to properly understand what he was talking about. I don't think is arrogance or anything, it is just a skill that he doesn't have naturally and also doesn't care enough to practice and improve. I think his ideas are strong enough to…

Nassim Taleb wrote in one of his books that he intentionally articulates his beliefs in a somewhat difficult to understand fashion otherwise people wouldn't take him seriously. Malcolm Gladwell and Daniel Kahneman (author of Thinking, Fast and Slow) both credit Nassim Taleb for a lot of inspiration in their books. Someone mentioned to me that Benoit Mandelbrot (author of (Mis)behavior of Markets) inspired Nassim Tale…

Another option for understanding Taleb is to take a rigorous course on stochastic processes. Afterwards, everything he says will make perfect sense.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#107

Post by Pent »

huphelmeyer wrote: post #15
zengid wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His books are also quite funny, particularly Antifragile .

Was Antifragile supposed to be funny? I thought Taleb just came off as stuck-up.

It's obvious that he writes for a specific audience

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#108

Post by conanbatt »

dragonwriter wrote: post #62
conanbatt wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im pretty sure he means there is a central design with a distributed behavior on monetary policy. That is actually a very interesting thing as an economist. I would have loved to see Hayek and bitcoin in the same era..

> Im pretty sure he means there is a central design with a distributed behavior on monetary policy. Classic standardized commodity (e.g. metallic) currency has central design and distributed behavior. Given that the name for the distributed actors key to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency comes from that for a key set of those responsible for supply of metallic currency, I’m kind of surprised that this could be overloo…

The gold has to be minted, which goes through centralization.

Old time gold that was traded without minting or governments had Eureka related issues.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#109

Post by dragonwriter »

conanbatt wrote: post #108
dragonwriter wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Im pretty sure he means there is a central design with a distributed behavior on monetary policy. Classic standardized commodity (e.g. metallic) currency has central design and distributed behavior. Given that the name for the distributed actors key to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency comes from that for a key set of those responsible for supply of metallic currency, I’m kind of surprised that this could be overloo…

The gold has to be minted, which goes through centralization. Old time gold that was traded without minting or governments had Eureka related issues.

> The gold has to be minted, which goes through centralization

Both gold and silver frequently traded based on weight and crude physical test of purity; while it was minted, this was at many times and places not centralized in any real sense, and no special position being given to coins of the local mint.

> Old time gold that was traded without minting or governments had Eureka related issues.

So did gold that was traded with minting and governments; the existence of those issues does not mean the currencies did not exist.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#110

Post by zengid »

huphelmeyer wrote: post #15
zengid wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His books are also quite funny, particularly Antifragile .

Was Antifragile supposed to be funny? I thought Taleb just came off as stuck-up.

It's not really 'laugh-out-loud' funny, but he has a humorous dry wit interspersed throughout his essays.
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